ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

this thing is deepening on arrival... stalling/wobbling at the moment

With the latest aircraft data in the last hour, 75 kt seems like a better estimate (after seeing 82 kt and 84 kt flight-level winds).

[capNstorms]

this thing is deepening on arrival... stalling/wobbling at the moment

With the latest aircraft data in the last hour, 75 kt seems like a better estimate (after seeing 82 kt and 84 kt flight-level winds).

85mph just came in, i wouldn't doubt this goes cat 2 . . . it's ramping up, higher side cat 1 hurricane right now

they are getting 70-80mph wind gust in sergent just north of sergent

[capNstorms]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKEfzdWci2s

awesome footage out of sergent texas right now

[capNstorms]

tornadoes coming in on surfside beach right now

[copano]

Has recon confirmed the extrapolated data that earlier inferred a cat 1?

[underthwx]

this thing is deepening on arrival... stalling/wobbling at the moment

With the latest aircraft data in the last hour, 75 kt seems like a better estimate (after seeing 82 kt and 84 kt flight-level winds).

85mph just came in, i wouldn't doubt this goes cat 2 . . . it's ramping up, higher side cat 1 hurricane right now

they are getting 70-80mph wind gust in sergent just north of sergent

Im just north of sargent...its heavy rain...wind here...its getting sketchy yall...

[Jr0d]

Still has some time over hot water...but I am glad she will(almost certainly) be inhibited by the lack of time before landfall.

An extra 24 hours would likely have seen some serious deepening based on what the radar is showing in the eye.

While this might catch many off guard with full hurricane conditions, at least Beryl has not had the time to bomb before landfall.

For those who think "only" a category one is not dangerous, I can assure you if you are ever in "just" minimal hurricane conditions you will know why we have have that distinction. It is difficult to stand in 65 knot winds... sustained winds at that strength for even an hour will cause notable damage. While we are fairly safe in modern structures in winds exceeding hurricane force, weaker structures like mobile homes are not, nor is venturing outside with hurricane force winds.

[capNstorms]

Still has some time over hot water...but I am glad she will(almost certainly) be inhibited by the lack of time before landfall.

An extra 24 hours would likely have seen some serious deepening based on what the radar is showing in the eye.

While this might catch many off guard with full hurricane conditions, at least Beryl has not had the time to bomb before landfall.

For those who think "only" a category one is not dangerous, I can assure you if you are ever in "just" minimal hurricane conditions you will know why we have have that distinction. It is difficult to stand in 65 knot winds... sustained winds at that strength for even an hour will cause notable damage. While we are fairly safe in modern structures in winds exceeding hurricane force, weaker structures like mobile homes are not, nor is venturing outside with hurricane force winds.

80-85mph sustained winds on the surface prior to landfall is pretty gnarly! this is really intensifying no doubt gaining almost 5mph an hr, they are basically playing in the middle of the convection waves

[wx98]

Looks like it’s deciding to come in near Matagorda after all instead of Freeport.

[Hurricane Mike]

This looks like a much nastier strike for this area than Hurricane Nicholas was in 2021.

Here is a 2am video update for anyone interested.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCx6ibKtwzE

[capNstorms]

Pressure dropping on arrival

[SoupBone]

Looks like it’s deciding to come in near Matagorda after all instead of Freeport.

It definitely looks like landfall is very close.

[wx98]

Around 20 miles from Matagorda Beach, so landfall likely in the next 2 hours.

[capNstorms]

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/met.html?id=8773767

we have a strengthening hurricane folks...

[capNstorms]

the eye is stalling right off the coast, pressure is dropping fast in Matagorda

[capNstorms]

gust of 93.9 mph at Matagorda, this this is wobbling off the coast.... 987.9mb at the surface of Matagorda entrance channel

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like part of the eyewall is onshore on radar, so we may have seen it as strong as it's going to get right now.

[capNstorms]

It's starting to get pulled east by the trof, it might skirt the coast

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/jefflindner1/status/1810212582235464187

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/nwscorpus/status/1810215616047202679