ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Evacuation Updates:

Brazoria County: Mandatory for the town of Quintana. Voluntary for all areas south of ICW.

Calhoun County: Voluntary order for all low-lying areas.

Galveston County: Voluntary the unprotected West End and areas outside of the LaMarque levee. (Honestly surprised they haven’t issued a voluntary evacuation for Bolivar. 87 floods pretty easily and I can imagine that the ferry is going to shut down at some point tomorrow.)

Matagorda County: Voluntary for all coastal communities, including Palacios, Sargent, and Matagorda. Citywide Curfew has been enacted in Bay City and Palacios.

[wx98]

If it makes cat1 it will just barely, most likely high end trop storm. Her head will get cut off 20 miles inland. We dont mess around in Texas.

NHC disagrees with you but you can believe what you want to believe.

NHC has also disagreed with those calling for Cat 2-3 for 48 hours but I’ve not seen many comments deterring those…

[cutterwx]

If it makes cat1 it will just barely, most likely high end trop storm. Her head will get cut off 20 miles inland. We dont mess around in Texas.

NHC disagrees with you but you can believe what you want to believe.

NHC has also disagreed with those calling for Cat 2-3 for 48 hours but I’ve not seen many comments deterring those…

To be fair, nearly every public discussion has mentioned the error with strength forecasting and several have specifically mentioned the possibility of a RI episode.

Latest Advisory -

"The intensity forecast is tricky because the environment is
becoming quite favorable for significant intensification as Beryl
should be moving over sea-surface temperatures near 87F tonight and
light shear, plus even an enhancement of jet dynamics north of the
storm. All of the model guidance respond to these conditions by
showing a large increase in deep convection near the center and
higher winds. However, some less predictable factors could prevent
a big increase in winds, including dry air in the inner core, a
somewhat large radius of maximum winds, and slightly faster landfall
timing. Given that the regional hurricane models still show
significant deepening, the official forecast continues to call for
near rapid intensification through landfall."

Whether we get it to ramp up or not this go-around, it has remained possible.

[tolakram]

STOP THE BICKERING NOW

Next one gets a timeout until this storm has passed, then we will review access. We are in storm mode now, no one liners, keep comments respectful, and if you feel you've been slighted REPORT the post and move on. Thanks to those who have reported, I have removed a bunch of posts.

[skyline385]

When I made the following comment in the SST indicators thread 2 months ago, I did not expect it to verify but looks like it will with Beryl. Climo-based steering patterns are certainly very interesting.

Not sure how many people here follow severe weather but we had a major severe wx event in Houston yesterday which left more than a million people without power at peak (and still 700k without power). Now, the reason I bring this up is because the last time we had such a major event was on May 20, 1983 where 3 EF-2 tornadoes touched down around the Houston area. What's peculiar about this is that 1983 also had a decaying El-Nino during May (which eventually transitioned to a Nina towards end of year) and a somewhat +AMO config in May (which eventually decayed as we got into hurricane season). Now the same hurricane season while being one of the quietest on records is also famous for Hurricane Alicia over here which again ran straight through the Greater Houston area as a C3. And we also have climate models showing a west based track this season. So, long story short, I am going to definitely make sure my preparations are well in order this month.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p3064988

[Craters]

I know that you've all been waiting on pins and needles that you can feel there on the edge of your seat, so here's the latest from Alvin, Brazoria County (yes, THAT Brazoria County), Texas).

Inordinately humid outside. Hardly any air motion at all, and then a gust from Somewhere Out There shows up and you wonder what in the heck is going on. Then it disappears just like that, and you're back to being bathed in sweat.

Mostly cloudy due to numerous examples of the cumulonimbus persuasion, with horizontal streaks of beautiful, blue sky, mostly to the south and southeast. Bordering that blue sky is typically more Cb near the horizon. When the gaps aren't blue, they're mostly filled with cirrus outflow. 180° in the other direction, the sky is a dark, gunmetal, grayish-blue on the backsides of the rain bands.

When a rain band does come through, everybody knows it. We don't need radar to know that a band is on its way, either, because our German shepherd starts looking for someplace to hide sometimes tens of minutes before the rain starts. I'm pretty sure that I wish I had her senses, whatever they are...

[wx98]

My accuweather app currently tells me to expect 73 MPH peak sustained winds and 80 MPH peak wind gust. 8-12 inches of rain

That seems a very low gust factor, is that normal for tropical cyclones?

Look at NWS NDFD grids. Not Accuweather…

[GCANE]

AF301 VDM
Eye circular, 50nm, open SW

[GCANE]

Last two center fixes from AF301 shows Beryl moving straight north

[ROCK]

Last fix moving almost due North…watch for the turn NNE as it deepens and feels the trof..unless that was just a wobble…lol

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1810096411004002374

[InfernoFlameCat]

AF301 VDM
Eye circular, 50nm, open SW

That is a massive eye. I suspect it will shrink considerably as the system intensifies.

[Bimms]

I know that you've all been waiting on pins and needles that you can feel there on the edge of your seat, so here's the latest from Alvin, Brazoria County (yes, THAT Brazoria County), Texas).

Inordinately humid outside. Hardly any air motion at all, and then a gust from Somewhere Out There shows up and you wonder what in the heck is going on. Then it disappears just like that, and you're back to being bathed in sweat.

Mostly cloudy due to numerous examples of the cumulonimbus persuasion, with horizontal streaks of beautiful, blue sky, mostly to the south and southeast. Bordering that blue sky is typically more Cb near the horizon. When the gaps aren't blue, they're mostly filled with cirrus outflow. 180° in the other direction, the sky is a dark, gunmetal, grayish-blue on the backsides of the rain bands.

When a rain band does come through, everybody knows it. We don't need radar to know that a band is on its way, either, because our German shepherd starts looking for someplace to hide sometimes tens of minutes before the rain starts. I'm pretty sure that I wish I had her senses, whatever they are...

Lol, same with my cat. She's been hiding most of the day, I wonder if she can feel the pressure drop.

[Charleswachal]

AF301 VDM
Eye circular, 50nm, open SW

That is a massive eye. I suspect it will shrink considerably as the system intensifies.

we had a partial 50 mile eye earlier today which didnt really survive. We will have to see if this one can close off

[wx98]

Dropped a point on GR2 about 3 hours ago. Currently moving NW away from that point directly toward Matagorda Bay.

[Xyls]

Beryl's intensity continues to be difficult to predict until the very end.

[cheezyWXguy]

AF301 VDM
Eye circular, 50nm, open SW

That is a massive eye. I suspect it will shrink considerably as the system intensifies.

Agreed. Seeing another attempt at firing off showers in a smaller concentric ring around the center. If those solidify it would reduce the eye diameter to about 35 miles

[wx98]

Miss Piggy VDM 988mb

doesnt exactly make sense

AF also has 988 so it makes sense…

[Craters]

I'm looking at the radar out of Corpus Christi, and I swear that I'm still seeing outflow boundaries — not huge ones, but still outflow boundaries — in the northwestern quadrant.

[wx98]

Last fix moving almost due North…watch for the turn NNE as it deepens and feels the trof..unless that was just a wobble…lol

Likely a wobble. Longer term motion is NNW to NW