ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Winds will hold at 65 mph this advisory most likely. Track will remain effectively the same.

[aspen]

989/15 drop, supports 987-988mb. Pressure continues to steadily fall.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop supports around 988mb. Winds look to be around 50-55kts so far. Looks like the NOAA plane is now on the way as well

[hurricaneCW]

The latest HWRF has this at 982 by 8pm. I think that's the metric to go on if rapid intensification is to be believed, otherwise chances for more than a cat 1 drop quickly, fortunately.

Yeah it's running out of time, fast. If it had gotten its act together maybe 3-4 hours ago, Category 2+ would've been more likely.

Texas is lucky Beryl has taken forever to get its act together. Could’ve been at risk for a Cat 3 landfall if it mixed out the dry air and formed an eyewall by this morning, instead of still being in the middle of doing so right now.

It was going to be a flooding threat regardless.

Small storm. Impacts would be held to small area even if it became a stronger hurricane

[DukeMu]

1pm update has Beryl's heading at 330 degrees....that is almost NNW. Beryl starting to make the north turn......MGC

It technically is NNW, according to this nifty tool I found years ago. That's why NHC states it's NNW in the advisory.

360° = 0° = Due North. Just think analog clock. counterclockwise from 0° increases the angle.

[Frank P]

Pressure slowly dropping, perhaps tonight it will accelerate the strengthening process.

[wx98]

Recon has a pretty expansive wind field to the northeast. We’ll see if that keeps expanding as the pressure falls. It will increase the surge risk for points east of Matagorda Bay.

[Smurfwicked]

1pm update has Beryl's heading at 330 degrees....that is almost NNW. Beryl starting to make the north turn......MGC

It technically is NNW, according to this nifty tool I found years ago. That's why NHC states it's NNW in the advisory.

360° = 0° = Due North. Just think analog clock. counterclockwise from 0° increases the angle.

I know it's not forecasted to but it seems to have slowed more than forecasted so I'm hoping it doesn't start being tugged more NNE just before or very soon after landfall. That would likely keep it stronger longer.

[wx98]

Pressure slowly dropping, perhaps tonight it will accelerate the strengthening process.
https://i.ibb.co/B4CSZYy/IMG-4228.png

A Cat 1 with a dropping central pressure and expanding wind field will lead to more significant surge problems…

[wx98]

It technically is NNW, according to this nifty tool I found years ago. That's why NHC states it's NNW in the advisory.

360° = 0° = Due North. Just think analog clock. counterclockwise from 0° increases the angle.

I know it's not forecasted to but it seems to have slowed more than forecasted so I'm hoping it doesn't start being tugged more NNE just before or very soon after landfall. That would likely keep it stronger longer.

Looks pretty much on track to me. Steering just bring it in near where forecast.

[utweather]

Please research Humberto 2007. The fastest RI on record. TD to TS in 3 hrs then TD to high end Cat 1 with 15 miles
Before landfall in HS at 90mph

I’m well aware of that storm. A storm that happened 17 years ago has absolutely no bearing on the current situation…

Reminds me of a post I made in 2019: "It never fails. Every sheared system in the Western Atlantic is compared to Andrew, every storm moving south of west is compared to Katrina, and every little blob in the western GoM will be the next Humberto in 24 hours."

The failed tropical systems are quicky forgotten.

[IcyTundra]

NHC at 4 PM advisory still has Beryl becoming a 85 mph cat 1.

[capNstorms]

appears to be slowing down and ramping up, hot towers on the S side this thing is trying to get it together again

[wx98]

One main thing I’m noticing is that the mid-level clouds aren’t rotating in tandem with the low-level clouds. Another sign that this isn’t quite organized enough for significant intensification. Pressure drops were expected and will likely continue, but may not translate to increased wind speeds past 80-85 mph.

[Steve]

The latest HWRF has this at 982 by 8pm. I think that's the metric to go on if rapid intensification is to be believed, otherwise chances for more than a cat 1 drop quickly, fortunately.

Yeah it's running out of time, fast. If it had gotten its act together maybe 3-4 hours ago, Category 2+ would've been more likely.

Yes time is ticking away fast and the organization isn’t coming along like it would need to. Just a broad high-end TS or Cat 1 should be coming into Texas in the morning.

Mostly there with you. Just is kind of relative though because it’s going to **** some **** up. Worst or best place to be will be east of the center when it comes up through SE Texas. Getting in the edge of that circulation for 3 hours is going to smack a lot of people hard. That’s always the dangerous part of a mostly north pulling system. Because you get the top of it and the side and sometimes the bottom if it’s pulling NNE. Most of Houston could be in that zone.

[wx98]

NHC at 4 PM advisory still has Beryl becoming a 85 mph cat 1.

Yes, the forecast from the previous advisory was effectively kept for this one.

[wx98]

Yeah it's running out of time, fast. If it had gotten its act together maybe 3-4 hours ago, Category 2+ would've been more likely.

Yes time is ticking away fast and the organization isn’t coming along like it would need to. Just a broad high-end TS or Cat 1 should be coming into Texas in the morning.

Mostly there with you. Just is kind of relative though because it’s going to **** some **** up. Worst or best place to be will be east of the center when it comes up through SE Texas. Getting in the edge of that circulation for 3 hours is going to smack a lot of people hard. That’s always the dangerous part of a mostly north pulling system. Because you get the top of it and the side and sometimes the bottom if it’s pulling NNE. Most of Houston could be in that zone.

Systems like these often cause more widespread issues than more compact systems with stronger winds. I believe I mentioned something to this effect yesterday or Friday.

[capNstorms]

[wx98]

Those recent rotating towers are appearing to close off an eye-like structure. We’ll see how that evolves

[MGC]

Beryl is reminding me of Isadore in 2002. Cyclone just couldn't get it back together after visiting the Yucatan. Doubt this system enters RI phase.....MGC