ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

https://i.imgur.com/koKXfYn.gif

Very close to naked.

Funny to see the low-level clouds circulating quickly while the higher clouds drift around at a much slower rate.

[Craters]

[size=150]In addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the coast, which could aid in the intensification process.

This is not a term you want to read when you have a hurricane forecasted preparing to make landfall.

I agree, but that's primarily because, despite a respectable vocabulary, I don’t know what the frak "diffluent" means, especially in context. Confluence I could figure out, but diffluence is a new one.

Merriam-Webster says "characterized by mushiness or deliquescence". Crap, now there's another word to look up. Something about melting and falling apart, or generally losing structure.

So basically it sounds like a shear-free environment, correct?

In the simple language I tend to use inside my head, I think that "diffluent" means something like "flowing apart." Basically, similar to "divergent."

[Charleswachal]

One of the local meteorologists in Houston released some potential wind gust maps and some of the numbers are pretty staggering for metro Houston. 65 to 95 mph winds across the city is something else for sure.

[captainbarbossa19]

This is not a term you want to read when you have a hurricane forecasted preparing to make landfall.

I agree, but that's primarily because, despite a respectable vocabulary, I don’t know what the frak "diffluent" means, especially in context. Confluence I could figure out, but diffluence is a new one.

Merriam-Webster says "characterized by mushiness or deliquescence". Crap, now there's another word to look up. Something about melting and falling apart, or generally losing structure.

So basically it sounds like a shear-free environment, correct?

In the simple language I tend to use inside my head, I think that "diffluent" means something like "flowing apart." Basically, similar to "divergent."

Yes it is like divergence.

[txag2005]

One of the local meteorologists in Houston released some potential wind gust maps and some of the numbers are pretty staggering for metro Houston. 65 to 95 mph winds across the city is something else for sure.

Can you post a link?

[LadyBug72]

One of the local meteorologists in Houston released some potential wind gust maps and some of the numbers are pretty staggering for metro Houston. 65 to 95 mph winds across the city is something else for sure.

Can you post a link?

I seen them too. If I knew how to link from my phone, I would.

[utweather]

https://i.imgur.com/koKXfYn.gif

Very close to naked.

But was it not expected after exiting the Yucatan?

Beryl is no Gilbert. She looks like a mess.

[ConvergenceZone]

https://i.imgur.com/koKXfYn.gif

Very close to naked.

But was it not expected after exiting the Yucatan?

Beryl is no Gilbert. She looks like a mess.

totally agree. We'll see if maybe they bring the winds down to 40 or 50 mph on the next advisory Then again, I would not be at all surprised at all to wake up to a wave tomorrow.((CAVEAT: IF IT CONTINUES IT'S TREND OF WEAKENING), but I think that's stretching it. I saw that happen with a couple of other storms in the past, but I'm having difficulty remembering their names.

[wx98]

https://i.imgur.com/koKXfYn.gif

Very close to naked.

Didn't expect her to look this ugly from the Yucatan and slight wind shear. However I can see the center relocating to the MLC if it gets strong enough to get down the surface, then I can see this get some RI for the next 48 - 90 hours while over the GoM, since they are expecting it to slow down from now until landfall.

48-90?? Landfall is expected in 60 hours…

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/koKXfYn.gif

Very close to naked.

Didn't expect her to look this ugly from the Yucatan and slight wind shear. However I can see the center relocating to the MLC if it gets strong enough to get down the surface, then I can see this get some RI for the next 48 - 90 hours while over the GoM, since they are expecting it to slow down from now until landfall.

48-90?? Landfall is expected in 60 hours…

It all depends on where she goes inland, 48-60 hours is around Corpus Christi, the further East she goes the longer she will take longer to get inland and the longer it takes the slower she will move.

[vbhoutex]

https://www.facebook.com/search/top?q=abc13-travis%20herzog
From Travis Herzog at Channel 13 in Houston.

[wx98]

Didn't expect her to look this ugly from the Yucatan and slight wind shear. However I can see the center relocating to the MLC if it gets strong enough to get down the surface, then I can see this get some RI for the next 48 - 90 hours while over the GoM, since they are expecting it to slow down from now until landfall.

48-90?? Landfall is expected in 60 hours…

It all depends on where she goes inland, 48-60 hours is around Corpus Christi, the further East she goes the longer she will take longer to get inland and the longer it takes the slower she will move.

Incorrect. Nothing official indicates it will take until past midday Monday to make landfall anywhere.

[Blinhart]

48-90?? Landfall is expected in 60 hours…

It all depends on where she goes inland, 48-60 hours is around Corpus Christi, the further East she goes the longer she will take longer to get inland and the longer it takes the slower she will move.

Incorrect. Nothing official indicates it will take until past midday Monday to make landfall anywhere.

They are already talking about not sure of forward speed and that can cause many fluctuations in landfall time.

[Hammy]

But was it not expected after exiting the Yucatan?

Beryl is no Gilbert. She looks like a mess.

totally agree. We'll see if maybe they bring the winds down to 40 or 50 mph on the next advisory Then again, I would not be at all surprised at all to wake up to a wave tomorrow.((CAVEAT: IF IT CONTINUES IT'S TREND OF WEAKENING), but I think that's stretching it. I saw that happen with a couple of other storms in the past, but I'm having difficulty remembering their names.

This still has a robust low level circulation with 65 mph flight winds, the problem it's facing is there's no convection near the center to tighten the winds and bring them to the surface. I don't imagine this is going to weaken much further given it's starting to fire convection

I'm wondering if this is going to pull a Jerry 1989, that was heavily sheared up until about 12-18 hours before landfall and then quickly strengthened

[5t0rmsguy]

Guys does beryl even have a chance from recovering from this it looks so out of shape

[PavelGaborik10]

Good lord what a mess.

[Hurrilurker]

Time to recover a bit but I doubt it has time to truly rebuild and strengthen, it looks awful. Good for folks in Texas although they're likely still in for a lot of rain and flooding regardless.

[Stratton23]

You never know, given how beryl has been so unpredictable, I wouldn’t be surprised if she has one more trick up her sleeve

[Nederlander]

Nothing super surprising with her appearance. Conditions for strengthening will become more favorable later today as the ULL moves into Mexico, SSTs get warmer and forward speed decreases. Look no further than Humberto (2007) to see how quickly organization can occur in this area.

The good news is the longer it takes her, the odds of a high end threat (cat 3+) go down. But I still wouldn’t be surprised to see RI tomorrow into Monday.

[bob rulz]

Definitely looking very battered at the moment. But that LLC still looks quite vigorous. It's going to restrengthen, it's really just a matter of how much. Even if it takes a while, let's not forget how quickly Gulf storms can spin up.