Texas Summer 2024

[Anti-freeze]

Well if it is going to hit Texas, that 70 miles stretch of mostly empty King Ranch land between Raymondville and Kingsville would be the least impactful.

For inland Texans drooling for a Texas hit, please bear in mind that an expensive hurricane hitting one of our coastal cities will result in another insurance rate hike for all of us, not just the coastal counties. Coastal politicians have worked hard to keep it that way (along with continuing to allow too much rapid, irresponsible development in hurricane surge zones, Galveston County being the most flagrant offender.) More importantly, more and more coastal homeowners have been unable to find any company to insure their homes, and even those who do still have coverage will have expensive deductibles if major damage occurs. Some will lose their homes, unable to afford rebuilding.

[Cpv17]

0z GFS looks awesome!!

[snownado]

DFW set yet another record maximum low this morning of 81*F (previous record was 80*F in 2022).

[txtwister78]

Learning question here…I’ve seen the posts from various Mets that say “weaker storm more west, stronger more north” what is the threshold of strength to determine this? Thank you!

This is in reference to the Midwest trough we've been discussing over the past few days. Troughs can change the steering pattern via the upper levels and so the effect being that a stronger/deeper storm will feel the impacts of that as opposed to a weaker/more disorganized storm that wouldn't. How deep the trough is will obviously be a factor as well in determining how fast that turn takes place (gradual or sharp) should the storm recover out over the gulf.

A lot will be decided over the next 24-48 hours as Beryl encounters more wind shear and landmasses out ahead of it. At this point it's really a wait and see situation.

[txtwister78]

[underthwx]

Well if it is going to hit Texas, that 70 miles stretch of mostly empty King Ranch land between Raymondville and Kingsville would be the least impactful.

For inland Texans drooling for a Texas hit, please bear in mind that an expensive hurricane hitting one of our coastal cities will result in another insurance rate hike for all of us, not just the coastal counties. Coastal politicians have worked hard to keep it that way (along with continuing to allow too much rapid, irresponsible development in hurricane surge zones, Galveston County being the most flagrant offender.) More importantly, more and more coastal homeowners have been unable to find any company to insure their homes, and even those who do still have coverage will have expensive deductibles if major damage occurs. Some will lose their homes, unable to afford rebuilding.

True that...harvey made a believer outta me...and it made landfall 300 miles south of me....my house was like the titanic...so I pay attention and listen to yall...and all the pros...

[LadyBug72]

Learning question here…I’ve seen the posts from various Mets that say “weaker storm more west, stronger more north” what is the threshold of strength to determine this? Thank you!

This is in reference to the Midwest trough we've been discussing over the past few days. Troughs can change the steering pattern via the upper levels and so the effect being that a stronger/deeper storm will feel the impacts of that as opposed to a weaker/more disorganized storm that wouldn't. How deep the trough is will obviously be a factor as well in determining how fast that turn takes place (gradual or sharp) should the storm recover out over the gulf.

A lot will be decided over the next 24-48 hours as Beryl encounters more wind shear and landmasses out ahead of it. At this point it's really a wait and see situation.

Thank you, I appreciate your response!

[Portastorm]

Well if it is going to hit Texas, that 70 miles stretch of mostly empty King Ranch land between Raymondville and Kingsville would be the least impactful.

For inland Texans drooling for a Texas hit, please bear in mind that an expensive hurricane hitting one of our coastal cities will result in another insurance rate hike for all of us, not just the coastal counties. Coastal politicians have worked hard to keep it that way (along with continuing to allow too much rapid, irresponsible development in hurricane surge zones, Galveston County being the most flagrant offender.) More importantly, more and more coastal homeowners have been unable to find any company to insure their homes, and even those who do still have coverage will have expensive deductibles if major damage occurs. Some will lose their homes, unable to afford rebuilding.

Let's try and keep the discussion focused on the weather please. Thank you.

[cstrunk]

I'm all for a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane landfalling near Brownsville, so long as the storm doesn't stall out and moves far enough west to help out STX/SWTX with beneficial rain. Selfishly I hope it recurves with enough moisture to bring some rain to my house in the NE part of the state. Obviously don't want to deal with anything stronger. Luckily models seem to be trending a bit weaker.

[txtwister78]

One thing to keep in mind as we watch Beryl maintain some of its intensity just south of Jamaica is that the global models are still having a difficult time initializing the overall strength/pressure of this storm in real-time. Too early to say if that will impact its status/structure once it emerges out into the gulf. No question it will have to deal with the Yucatan and that in of itself will obviously weaken it.

[rwfromkansas]

I am headed to KS and was shocked to run into a cold front in northern OK. In the 80s and in the 70s in KS. Heck yeah. Stopping at my hometown to shoot legal fireworks before I go to a wedding in CO. Glad to get a break from the heat. Hopefully TX will not get a major hurricane hit.

[snownado]

DFW set yet another record maximum low this morning of 81*F (previous record was 80*F in 2022).

And also the 5th 100*F day of the year.

[Iceresistance]

DFW set yet another record maximum low this morning of 81*F (previous record was 80*F in 2022).

And also the 5th 100*F day of the year.

I reached 100 for the 2nd time this year, which is unfortunate

[Portastorm]

DFW set yet another record maximum low this morning of 81*F (previous record was 80*F in 2022).

And also the 5th 100*F day of the year.

Same here in Austin. We’ve had 5 or 6 days now of 100° or more.

[Brent]

Well we've had some clouds and hints of rain here but yeah I'm just ready for something besides this awful heat

[LadyBug72]

Looks to be another day of heat for SE Texas! Stay hydrated and as cool as you can today! Happy 4th of July S2K!

[txtwister78]

Happy 4th of July to all.

Latest Beryl 12z model guidance is beginning to narrow down the potential landfall scenarios across the western gulf. A South Texas landfall is definitely not out of the question. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC shift their cone/track a little northward on the next full advisory update.  The good news is wind shear has finally done its thing and as a result models thus far keep this a high-end TS or low-end hurricane out over the gulf. Hopefully that trend remains considering the unusual (climatologically speaking) high-end strength/scale this Hurricane managed to reach out over the Eastern/Central Carribean.

[rwfromkansas]

A FB friend is in Playa Del Carmen for vacation. Geez. Said the bars shut down yesterday night. No alcohol can be served. Hope they leave.

This is why I never do cruises or Caribbean trips past June 15.

[Cpv17]

A FB friend is in Playa Del Carmen for vacation. Geez. Said the bars shut down yesterday night. No alcohol can be served. Hope they leave.

This is why I never do cruises or Caribbean trips past June 15.

I still would. That’s the best time to go is during the summer. Well, at least for me.

[txtwister78]

Austin/San Antonio NWS discussion regarding Beryl.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A frontal boundary draped across Central Texas in combination with
any associated outflow should serve as a focal point for widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity across the
northern 2/3rds of the CWA during Saturday. The relaxed flow aloft
and PWATs approaching 2 inches could allow for a few pockets of some
locally heavy rain. With the slow movement expected, these heavier
pockets will be very isolated. Any rainfall activity should diminish
Saturday night and looks to remain generally rain free through
majority of Sunday as the front lifts back northward a bit. High
temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 90s for many but there
could be some brief instances of heat relief for locations behind
any outflow and/or with any rain cooled air.

The focus of the forecast then shifts into next week with Hurricane
Beryl and its remnant tropical moisture with progression through the
week. The model guidance over the past 24 hours has become into a
tighter consensus in regards to Beryl's post Yucatan peninsula land
interaction and it's WNW to NW approach toward the northern Mexico
and/or Southern Texas coastline. Despite some continued wind shear
thanks to the influence from a TUTT (currently seen to the northwest
of the storm on water vapor imagery), some slow re-strengthening of
Beryl remains forecast back up to a hurricane as it moves over the
western Gulf prior to landfall. While higher uncertainty develops
post-landfall, the models have aligned a bit more on a northerly
track beyond landfall somewhere up along the Rio Grande and/or
inland across our area. Beryl's remnant circulation beyond landfall
looks to slow as well and becomes absorbed into the existing mean
flow and possibly tangled up with a frontal boundary situated to our
north into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This and the approach
of a tropical wave (Invest 96L) over the western Gulf of Mexico
keeps plenty of tropical moisture settled across the region through
the end of the long term period with PWATS generally of around or in
excess of 2 inches. As a result of this, the confidence continues to
increase on overall rainfall chances across South-Central Texas into
much of next week, including the potential for heavy, beneficial
rains at times. However, it's far too early to speculate the rainfall
amounts given the many unknown variables that remain in the forecast
but we will continue to fine tune local details through the next
several days.

One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling to the
beach after the 4th of July, that increased swells and the risk for
rip currents increases through the upcoming weekend and into next
week.