Will Beryl be the strongest of the 2024 NATL hurricane season?

[cycloneye]

Interesting question. The poll will close for voting on July 31rst at 1:44 PM EDT.

[Hurricane2022]

Three or more will be stronger than Beryl, like what happened in 2005 with Emily.

[ElectricStorm]

In terms of pressure I think we'll see two more that get lower than 934. They may not be Cat 5s though.

For wind I think we could see another 140-145kt Cat 5 perhaps but I'm not sure we'll see anything more than that.

But I voted for 2 for pressure.

[Teban54]

Why is there no option for "one more will be stronger than Beryl"?

[cycloneye]

Why is there no option for "one more will be stronger than Beryl"?

Oh boy. Added.

[cycloneye]

Those who already voted, do it again as I added the one will be stronger than Beryl option and when it edits, it erases all.

[kevin]

I think we'll get 3 cat 5's. A risky prediction, I know, but if there's a year for it this is the one. If we're talking pressure I expect both other hurricanes to be more intense: one 910 - 920 mb Florida / Gulf threat like Irma. And one WCar sub-900mb monster similar to Wilma or Delta.

[Teban54]

While we're on the topic, here's a random thought.

2020's early season (say June-July) was the most remarkable for constant TC genesis, setting earliest formation records for 6 storms during this period (and every storm thereafter). Consequently, the season was often considered as a quantity-over-quality one (though I personally think of it as just an extremely back-loaded season, given the exception quality in Oct-Nov).

2005's early season was also spammy enough to hold the earliest formation records at the time, but it's better known for the abnormally strong July storms, Dennis and Emily. The full season had both quantity and quality.

We haven't gone through July 2024 yet, but despite June 2024 tying the record of 3 TS formations in the month, it looks like the rest of July may be quiet. If early-season activity during the most active seasons can be a harbinger for later months (*), would it imply that 2024 may not have as high of a TS count as 2005 and 2020, but will feature many intense and/or long-tracking storms just like 2005 did?

(*) I'm aware that typically, early-season activity is uncorrelated with peak season; and that seasons like 2004 exist (no storms until July 31 followed by a top 10 ACE season).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

While we're on the topic, here's a random thought.

2020's early season (say June-July) was the most remarkable for constant TC genesis, setting earliest formation records for 6 storms during this period (and every storm thereafter). Consequently, the season was often considered as a quantity-over-quality one (though I personally think of it as just an extremely back-loaded season, given the exception quality in Oct-Nov).

2005's early season was also spammy enough to hold the earliest formation records at the time, but it's better known for the abnormally strong July storms, Dennis and Emily. The full season had both quantity and quality.

We haven't gone through July 2024 yet, but despite June 2024 tying the record of 3 TS formations in the month, it looks like the rest of July may be quiet. If early-season activity during the most active seasons can be a harbinger for later months (*), would it imply that 2024 may not have as high of a TS count as 2005 and 2020, but will feature many intense and/or long-tracking storms just like 2005 did?

(*) I'm aware that typically, early-season activity is uncorrelated with peak season; and that seasons like 2004 exist (no storms until July 31 followed by a top 10 ACE season).

Hard to say, remember we didn't even see signs on the models of Beryl/Chris until about 5 days before hand. Many of 2005's July storms were also fairly weak.

[StPeteMike]

4 Category 5 hurricanes will tie 2005 but this is definitely a season that could reach that. Beryl exceeded all expectations in both strength and keeping her intensity and I’m afraid that might be a theme this season. I will not be surprise if we see a storm beat Wilma with a lower pressure, we might even enter the 870 territory.

Went with 3 more.

[Stormybajan]

I believe Hurricane Beryl peaked as a 175 mph hurricane, with maybe evidence of even 180 mph (Insane for early July) however with the forecast conditions for the peak months of ASO, I dont see Beryl keeping her top spot in terms of pressure. I would be SHOCKED if there werent atleast two more hurricanes deeper than her this season and maybe even 3 if the season really goes berserk like 2005. So it will all depend on what do you mean by "strongest" is it winds or pressure? By wind ill say it will be JOINT No.1 and by pressure Beryl could be No.3, maybe even No.4 if things go truly haywire

[IcyTundra]

I think that Beryl will be the strongest storm of the season but that is probably wishful thinking.

[Beef Stew]

In terms of central pressure, no, I don’t think Beryl will be. But in terms of wind, I certainly think she has a chance, considering a 150 or (even 155) kt peak is supported by last night’s recon data. If Beryl’s peak was 150, than I think we get another storm that ties this, but if it was 155, I think
it will remain unmatched.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm willing to be that we're going to see the first storm since 2005 to feature a pressure below 900 mbar

[AJC3]

FYI for those who might not know...

Typically, when talking about tropical cyclones, meteorologists use the term "strength" when discussing MSW (maximum sustained winds) and "intensity" when discussing MCP, or minimum central pressure. Some don't, but most do.
It helps differentiate which parameter is being referred to.

To summarize...
Strongest = highest MSW
Most Intense = lowest MCP

If you use this nomenclature, it'll help avoid confusion.

[zal0phus]

FYI for those who might not know...

Typically, when talking about tropical cyclones, meteorologists use the term "strength" when discussing MSW (maximum sustained winds) and "intensity" when discussing MCP, or minimum central pressure. Some don't, but most do.
It helps differentiate which parameter is being referred to.

To summarize...
Strongest = highest MSW
Most Intense = lowest MCP

If you use this nomenclature, it'll help avoid confusion.

Thank you! I somehow never picked up on this distinction.
With this in mind I'm pretty sure something will beat Beryl in intensity, but strength is debatable.

[CrazyC83]

I think we get at least one or two more Cat 5's. Also, I think we get, on top of that, one or two Cat 4's as well with a pressure lower than 934.

[KirbyDude25]

I'm assuming that Beryl's peak will be revised upward to 150 or 155 knots in the post-season report, which is why I think only one storm this season will tie or exceed it. If its peak is not revised, then I think there may be a second that is stronger.

[captainbarbossa19]

Nay! Calypso has a surprise for us later this season with at least one sub 900mb hurricane.

[aspen]

I’ll be surprised if Beryl remains the strongest of the season, at least in terms of pressure. With how abnormally warm and favorable the MDR is this season, I suspect we could get a strong MDR Cat 5 like Irma or Lee. Whether a storm manages to exceed Beryl’s likely peak of 150-155 kt remains to be seen.