ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

It would be fun if Recon finds 160/165 kt+ FL again

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't think we're starting to see an EWRC, I think the long advertised shear is finally impacting Beryl. We should expect to see a gradual wind-down of intensity.

[cycloneye]

Just going to say this: It has been a cat 5 in the graveyard.

Yess you're back!!

I have been here.

[Hurricane2022]

Continues to slowly weaken; FL winds now at 149 kt
Still a Low-End C5

[tolakram]

Accuracy with a strong storm in the area is questionable, but I think this shows the potential environment Beryl is moving into.

[3090]

https://i.imgur.com/sMFJgq5.png

Accuracy with a strong storm in the area is questionable, but I think this shows the potential environment Beryl is moving into.

Beryl is approaching a tropical system shredding machine.

[Sailingtime]

It would be fun if Recon finds 160/165 kt+ FL again

Predicted to diminish in strength as it approaches the Western Carribean Sea, I would like to see wind speeds go down to a Cat 2 sooner rather than later. The island of Jamaica does not need a CAT 5 or high CAT 4. (who does?) Kind of a waiting game now for the next 24 hours to see what Beryl has in store.

[Javlin]

https://i.imgur.com/sMFJgq5.png

Accuracy with a strong storm in the area is questionable, but I think this shows the potential environment Beryl is moving into.

But when you look at the 5 day loop it always stays just out front but the shear pocket may not be compressible anymore.

[Odeseus]

In a sense, it doesn’t matter how quickly it winds down. Storm surge of it makes landfall anywhere should be MASSIVE. Quite a long time as a high end storm over wide open water.

My guess is the wind won’t be the biggest problem for Jamaica. Nor the rain as it is moving at a decent clip. My concern is the storm surge. And no amount of wind shear disruption will do much to dent that at this point.

[xironman]

I don't think we're starting to see an EWRC, I think the long advertised shear is finally impacting Beryl. We should expect to see a gradual wind-down of intensity.

Could be a normal pulse up and down, the shear has been moving west at close to the same rate

[underthwx]

Just going to say this: It has been a cat 5 in the graveyard.

Yess you're back!!

I have been here.

talk about a cyclone eye...dang!...how is the weather there CE?....how u been bro?...

[HurricaneBelle]

Beryl is whistling through the hurricane graveyard

[OpenWave90]

I'm still not buying the NHC intensity and track. Too much reliance on the GFS. GFS model is making the consensus too far north. I think it's passing south of Jamaica and heading for the Yucatan north of Belize. GFS operational is north of most of its members. It's the only model that develops Beryl to more than a Cat 1.

[cycloneye]

Yess you're back!!

I have been here.

talk about a cyclone eye...dang!...how is the weather there CE?....how u been bro?...

A few bands passing over PR today with winds between 25-40 mph. Thankfully, we avoided another Maria, but the season is only starting.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm still not buying the NHC intensity and track. Too much reliance on the GFS. GFS model is making the consensus too far north. I think it's passing south of Jamaica and heading for the Yucatan north of Belize. GFS operational is north of most of its members. It's the only model that develops Beryl to more than a Cat 1.

https://i.ibb.co/2d54RS1/IMG-0449.jpg

Dog him for the intensity as much as you want, but that track he predicted is verifying.

[Gums]

Salute from the Panhandle, aka Baja Alabama!

What's the feeling of those here with actual meteorology jobs/degees and long time victims/witnesses?

My theory has always been that early and especially strong storms reduce the energy content of the ocean or gulf by transfering that heat up into the stratosphere and or reducing the water temperature. For example, this very strong, well-developed thing should mitigate the new invest behind it, huh?

Of course El Nino conditions seem to reduce the number of storms and especially "major" ones, but we have seen that when having very high ocean temperatures and so-called climate change. But what's the feeling here aongst we storm folks.

Gums sends...

[kevin]

Dropsonde 159 kt at the surface

[underthwx]

I have been here.

talk about a cyclone eye...dang!...how is the weather there CE?....how u been bro?...

A few bands passing over PR today with winds between 25-40 mph. Thankfully, we avoided another Maria, but the season is only starting.

True that CE....beryl is an uninvited visitor....im sittin here wondering how our friends in the windward made out?...and also I'm wondering about Jamaica like everyone else is...what areas do they go to...to seek safe shelter from a Cyclone like beryl?....and its good to hear u r good luis....peace out bro...

[Kazmit]

Beryl-ing towards Jamaica. Models are insistent the shear does its job, but Beryl has done everything but what we expect it to do, at least intensity-wise. We still have much to improve upon when it comes to predicting intensity. Even if Beryl weakens to a cat 2/3 by the time it reaches Jamaica, it could be their worst storm in a long time.

[kevin]

The 938mb/27kt eye drop still supports a 935 mb pressure. IR doesn't look as good as before anymore, but 148 kt FL, 148 kt SFMR and 159 kt dropsonde still supports a 140 - 145 kt intensity. Crazy.