NOAA Winter Outlook Update

[Anonymous]

NOAA plans to update their winter outlook on Nov 20th, next Thursday. It will be interesting to see if they are a little less vague then their first predictions of equal chance of temps and precip.

From what I have read here the consensus is still for below normal temps and above normal snow for the NE and Mid-Atlantic.

Do you all still feel confident in this prediction?

[JCT777]

If we are looking at mid-December through mid-March, then I feel pretty good about the idea of temps being no higher than normal, and snowfall being normal to above normal in the NE and mid-Atlantic.

[jpp5862]

What about the southeast? Do you think we will see below normal temps? I know above average snowfall for us isn't much snow, but any thoughts on what the winter might look like farther south?

[CaptinCrunch]

I see the Southeast being about normal temps and precip rather than above normal temp and below normal precip as forecasted. For the Southcentral US I see cooler than normal temps and above normal precip due to the active southeren jet stream. I do see the nation as a whole having swings from warm spells to really cold spells through out the winter.

I expect the updated winter outlook will take in account a weak El Nino for this winter and i do expect it to some what influence our nations weather.

I read allot on here about what everyone thinks might happen, but when it comes right down to it we are all playing the odds and rolling the bones.

[WxDen]

As always, it's either warmer than normal or equal chances. I wonder if they'll bust big like last winter. They say they derived the forecast from their "tools"they use. The tools I know of are basically the long range models and most of them feature much colder in the east now. So, guess they don't want to believe that , although they indicate more troughiness in East than west,they think more swings in it than last winter . Where they come up with the warmer than normal in the plains is probably due to them thinking alot of downsloping will be prevalent. Here's the URL:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2003/s2126.htm

[CaptinCrunch]

NOAA will most likley BUST on this forecast, if you read the post I made (Winter Outlook Dec 2003 - Feb 2004) it is closer to what we will see this winter across the nation based on the current weather pattern.

[JCT777]

Overall for the country, they seem to be pointing to a relatively warm winter with about normal precip. I wonder if they are factoring in the increased solar activity.

[CaptinCrunch]

I dont' see solar activity being a factor this year for the simple reason it has not been a pro-active solar season, it has been at its lowest activity except for the couple of large solar flares in late Oct. and early Nov.

We will have to see if the activity is still high when the sun spots return later next week.

[Upslope]

I would like to extend my congratulations to the CPC for their 3-peat! Yes indeed, they will make it 3 years in a row with major busts on their winter forecast.

I am amazed they expanded their warmer than normal zone to include the midwest. The next 2 weeks will lay down an AMAZING snowpack across the rockies, midwest and plains. This will be in addition to Canada continuing to have a deep snowpack. All of this as the PV moves into our side of the pole for most of December. This combination will lead to some brutal December cold for all of the areas I just outlined. This will also mean the cold does not get much of a chance to moderate as it heads east and any storm that moves through the east will have plenty of cold air to work with. This is just simple meteorology I learned in my 101 class. I guess the boys and girls at the CPC were sick that day!!!

Anyway, I just wanted to be the first one to say congrats to the CPC for their 3-peat! I'm sure the ticker tape parade will be spectacular!

[CaptinCrunch]

"ROFLMFAO"