ATL: BERYL - Models

[TomballEd]

18Z GFS ensembles support the op, there are very few strong members in the W. Caribbean. Still a few US landfalls, but may be the start of a positive trend for the Jamaica, Yucatan and beyond to mainland Mexico.

[Stratton23]

Still way too early, the Euro ensembles trended more NW in the gulf

[Teban54]

18z operational models. Note that some data from the first recon missions earlier today may have gotten into the 18z models, though I'm not sure how much. (The 0z runs will definitely have them.)

18z actual intensity: 960 mb, 115 kt

18z GFS:

• Init 979 mb
• Windward Islands landfall 974 mb
• Slightly weakens to 977 mb south of DR/Haiti border, then to 983 mb when landfalling at the eastern tip of Jamaica
• Treks through Jamaica east-to-west, then stays near 1000 mb in the Western Caribbean, landfalls in Yucatan at that intensity
• Remains a lower-1000s TS through the GoM, landfalls at 1002 mb at the Texas/Mexico border

18z ICON:

• Init 1000 mb
• Windward Islands landfall 985 mb
• Deepens to 969 mb south of Puerto Rico, then fluctuates and hits SE Jamaica at 972 mb
• Exits NW Jamaica at 984 mb, strengthens to 976 mb at Yucatan landfall near Cancun
• Run ends at 986 mb just after entering the GoM and intensifying again

18z HWRF:

• Init 956 mb, 116 kt
• Deepens to 949 mb in 3 hours (21z, actual pressure was 960/958 ish), but then immediately back to around 959 mb for the rest of the trip before the islands (while winds pick up)
• Windward Islands landfall 958 mb, 121 kt
• Slowly deepens to 949 mb, 125 kt just south of Haiti, then tracks safely south of Jamaica
• Maintains 950s Cat 3 in the Western Caribbean, landfalls in Yucatan at 949 mb, 106 kt
• Run ends at 985 mb, 66 kt, just emerged over the GoM

18z HMON:

• Init 960 mb, 111 kt
• Windward Islands landfall 955 mb, 123 kt; pressure bottoms out at 952 mb six hours prior
• Holts together in the upper 950s, is 960 mb 120 kt south of DR/Haiti border; weakens to 979 mb, 85 kt while safely south of Jamaica
• A bit more weakening in the Western Caribbean, landfalls in Yucatan at 983 mb, 67 kt
• Run ends at 1000 mb, 44 kt, having been over the GoM for 9 hours but only slowly recovering (if any)

18z HAFS-A:

• Init 946 mb (technically 144 kt but the wind readings seem bogus)
• Immediately weakens to 961 mb in 6 hours (0z, pretty close to actual pressure), due to an EWRC (!)
• Completes the EWRC within 6 hours, reintensifies starting 6z, peaks at 947 mb mid-to-high Cat 4 at 9z; landfall is slightly weaker, at 953 mb
• Wind speed picks up to 137 kt (C5!) immediately after WI landfall, at 953 mb
• Starts weakening quickly past Puerto Rico; bottoms out at 995 mb, 58 kt south of Jamaica
• Fluctuates in the 980s in the Western Caribbean, landfalls in Yucatan at 977 mb, 72 kt
• Run ends at 995 mb, 51 kt, having been over the GoM for 6 hours but only slowly recovering (if any)

18z HAFS-B:

• Init 947 mb (technically 138 kt but the wind readings seem bogus)
• Immediately weakens to 959-961 mb in 3-6 hours (pretty close to actual pressure); this is possibly due to an EWRC, but harder to tell than HAFS-A
• Reintensifies soon afterwards, and landfalls in Windward Islands as a 947 mb, 145 kt Cat 5
• Slightly weakens in the Eastern Caribbean to 956 mb, 125 kt south of the Mona Passage, past which quicker weakening takes place; bottoms out at 993 mb, 56 kt SSW or Jamaica (no landfall)
• Bombs out again in the Western Caribbean, landfalls in northern Belize at 953 mb, 93 kt
• Run ends at 999 mb, 36 kt, still inland over Mexico, may or may not emerge over the BoC afterwards

Thoughts:

• In the short term (before WI), HAFS-A and HAFS-B seem to have the best handle on Beryl's current intensity and especially the EWRC. But both forecast the EWRC to conclude in time for additional strengthening, and give a 947 mb Cat 4-5 peak tomorrow morning.
• The two global models (GFS and ICON) didn't change much compared to 12z.
• As for hurricane models, HWRF big shifts in track around Jamaica, but intensity in the Caribbean is around the same (a tad weaker). HMON a bit stronger at Yucatan landfall.
• Both HAFS models are stronger in the Eastern Caribbean, likely a result of higher initial intensity, but they also have a bit more dramatic weakening near Jamaica. Funny enough, the hurricane models shifted south in track near Jamaica while GFS a bit north.

[txag2005]

0z ICON is running. So far at 126 hours, it looks to be quite a bit south and west compared to the 12z run today.

[shah83]

ridge over SE US is somewhat stronger in this icon run.

[txag2005]

Looks like the 0z ICON lands somewhere near Tampico, Mexico.

Just for comparison, the 12z run was just off the coast of Galveston at 180 hrs. The 0z from 24 hours ago showed landfall around Corpus Cristi.

As has been said many times already, it's just too early to know what happens once this storm gets past the Yucatan.

NOTE: I am interested to see if we see similar shifts in the other models tonight.

[Sambucol2024]

When will the recon data be factored into the models? They seem all over the place tonight.

[txag2005]

0z GFS is much further south when it approaches the Yucatan, making landfall around the Mexico/Belize border.

0z CMC seems to brush the northern tip of the Yucatan but seems a bit more west compared to the 12z.

[Stratton23]

Tonights runs shifted south, but definitely not a lock yet, wont know for certain until wednesday/ thursday ish

[txag2005]

Oz GFS remains in the Bay of Campeche and makes landfall maybe as far south as Veracruz. The 12z/18z runs today had landfall around the TX/MX border, so quite the shift.

0z CMC makes landfall at the TX/MX border. 0z last night has it hitting around New Orleans and 12z today had landfall in between Matagorda Bay and Galveston, so pretty steady shifts south throughout the day.

[TomballEd]

GFS has shifted noticeable S. It initializes too weak, as would be expected from a global, but is within 20 mb, which isn't horrible. Second landfall in the BoC. S of the ICON. Start of a trend?

[Stratton23]

I dont want a hurricane, but we do need the rain , but i love the CMC solution, heavy rain for central texas with a s texas landfall, the GFS solution stinks, wouldnt get anything out of that, we need the rain

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET stays 100+ miles S of Jamaica and landfalls in Belize (I’m just looking at track and am ignoring strength):

HURRICANE BERYL ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 57.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.07.2024 0 11.1N 57.0W 972 74
1200UTC 01.07.2024 12 12.2N 60.5W 981 64
0000UTC 02.07.2024 24 13.6N 64.1W 984 65
1200UTC 02.07.2024 36 14.8N 67.9W 989 58
0000UTC 03.07.2024 48 15.7N 72.1W 997 52
1200UTC 03.07.2024 60 16.1N 75.9W 999 51
0000UTC 04.07.2024 72 16.5N 79.4W 1000 47
1200UTC 04.07.2024 84 17.0N 83.3W 1000 40
0000UTC 05.07.2024 96 17.3N 86.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 05.07.2024 108 17.5N 89.3W 1004 28
0000UTC 06.07.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

[ElectricStorm]

0z hurricane models are wild. All 4 of them have Beryl intensifying again after the EWRC completes (and looking at radar posted in the main thread it might already be nearing completion soon). HWRF has a 120-125kt Cat 4 near the islands and then keeps it a major all the way to the Belize/Mexico border. HMON is smoking something and has a 150kt Cat 5 when it reaches the islands. HAFS-A with a 145kt Cat 5 but a very high pressure of 949mb so this run seems suspect. But HAFS-B also has a Cat 5 so...

The other three models have it weakening across the Caribbean which is expected. I think HWRF is more believable in the short term but I don't see it maintaining Cat 4 across the Caribbean

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: a little S of Jamaica to Belize to Tampico.

[Teban54]

0z actual intensity: 958 mb, 115 kt (wind speed is likely an overestimate)

0z GFS

• Init 979 mb
• Windward Islands landfall 979-975 mb
• Stays below 983 mb until it's past Haiti, then weakens to 992 mb while getting close to, but ultimately avoiding, SW coast of Jamaica
• Intensifies in the Western Caribbean, landfalls near Yucatan/Belize border at 977 mb
• Emerges over water at 1000 mb, strengthens to 984 mb in the BoC
• Landfalls deep into Mexico (Veracruz)

0z CMC

• Init 998 mb
• Windward Islands landfall 995-992 mb
• Peaks at 985 mb south of Puerto Rico, then weakens to 994 mb at landfall near the eastern tip of Jamaica
• Goes through Jamaica mostly to the north, then clips Yucatan (Cancun) with pressure near 996 mb
• Remains near that intensity for most of its track through the GoM, before intensifying at landfall, 989 mb at Texas/Mexico border

0z ICON

• Init 998 mb
• Windward Islands landfall 987 mb
• Intensifies slightly in the Eastern Caribbean and reaches 966-967 mb twice, before paralleling the SW coast of Jamaica at 970 mb
• Reintensifies in the Western Caribbean with 968 mb landfall in Yucatan
• Bombs out in the GoM but maintains a WNW track, landfall 958 mb in Mexico (near Tampico)

0z HWRF

• Init 960 mb, 110 kt
• Windward Islands landfall 956 mb, 122 kt
• Holds its own throughout the Caribbean with pressure in the 947-955 mb Cat 3/4, safely south of Jamaica
• Landfalls at the Yucatan/Belize border at 947 mb, 114 kt
• Run ends at 979 mb 74 kt in the BoC, strengthening from 984 mb when first over water

0z HMON

• Init 955 mb, 115 kt
• Windward Islands landfall 930 mb, 150 kt (!)
• Weakening starts after entering the Caribbean, 971 mb 95 kt south of Jamaica, bottoms out at 982 mb 66 kt
• A bit more intensification before landfall at Yucatan/Belize border, 972 mb 83 kt
• Run ends at 991 mb 56 kt in the BoC, strengthening from 1000 mb when first over water

0z HAFS-A

• Init 950 mb, 117 kt
• Windward Islands landfall 949 mb, 144 kt
• Holds as strong Cat 4 until south of PR, then quickly weakens to 986 mb 77 kt south of Jamaica
• Reintensifies in the Western Caribbean, landfall just north of the Belize border at 969 mb 85 kt
• Run ends at 990 mb 56 kt in the BoC, not much changes after emerging over water

0z HAFS-B

• Init 952 mb, 126 kt
• Windward Islands landfall 945 mb, 135 kt (earlier pressure and wind peaks are 943 mb and 140 kt, but not at the same time)
• Remains a strong Cat 4 until south of Dominican Republic, then quickly weakens to 986 mb 79 kt SW of Jamaica (the furthest from Jamaica of all models)
• Deepens again before landfall in central Belize, at 959 mb 98 kt
• Run ends without ever emerging over the BoC

0z Euro may be added later tonight or tomorrow.

Thoughts:

• As others have said, 3 of the 4 hurricane models bring it to Cat 5! HWRF is the weakest, a wild thing to say. Arguably, they may have underestimated how much Beryl weakened during the EWRC, but we'll see.
• All deterministic models, global and hurricane, show a southward shift in track from 12z and 18z. Most models go safely south of Jamaica, landfall around the Yucatan/Belize border, and mostly get buried in the BoC without threatening much of Texas past the border. (HWRF went from the northernmost outlier to the southernmost outlier in 12 hours, which is why it's not a track model.) Currently good news for Texas, but still more than enough time for changes.
• All hurricane models and some global models are now favoring reintensification in the Western Caribbean just before landfall in Yucatan/Belize, though "only" as a Cat 2-ish landfall after weakening to a Cat 1. HWRF is the outlier that keeps Beryl as a major throughout.

[Stratton23]

00z EPS guidance trended more north- north west with more members getting influenced by the trough, definitely north of its Op run fwiw

[Stratton23]

ICON 6z massive shift north

[jlauderdal]

ICON 6z massive shift north

ICON did good with IAN and held firm while the other models were going further N, It was a different storm, but dont toss it. As always, the best track is the NHC track or go with the TVCN(they do).

[LarryWx]

ICON 6z massive shift north

ICON did good with IAN and held firm while the other models were going further N, It was a different storm, but dont toss it. As always, the best track is the NHC track or go with the TVCN(they do).

Don’t forget UKMET, which did the best with Ian as it was the furthest south and closest. ICON was 2nd best.