T.S. Odette May Be Forming

[wxman57]

Well, ok, maybe "STS Odette". The low I've been following southward across the central Atlantic for the past 3-4 days is now about 650 miles sotuheast of Bermuda over still very warm water. What's significant here is that a secondary low center has developed south of the frontal low. Convection is beginning to build around the center. The NHC could ignore it completely or could upgrade it to STS Odette in the next few days - as it did with Noel and Olga in 2001. This one will be heading north then northeast and out to sea, most likely.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/disturb.gif">

[george_r_1961]

looks like its remotely possible...if southerly shear doesnt get to it first

[wxman57]

Shear isn't as much of a problem for subtropical storms.

[JCT777]

Very interesting development, and just when almost everyone had closed the books on the 2003 tropical Atlantic season.

[wxman57]

There's a buoy 150nm southwest of the center reporting a pressure of 1005.5mb and a west wind at 10kts, so the central pressure of the low may be down to 1002mb or so.

[Hurricanehink]

Yea, I've been watching this too. It seems possible. I really hope we get that last one. We haven't had a November storm for 2 years. Normally we get them every 2 years, or so. 1994's Florence and Gordon, 1996's Marco, 1998's Nicole, 1999's Lenny, 2001's Noel and Olga, so we're due for a November storm. What's really weird is that every one of them became a hurricane. Every one...

[cycloneye]

Any global model that supports this system developing?

[wxman57]

Any global model that supports this system developing?

Both GFS and NOGAPS indicate a low moving north, merging with a low off the NE U.S. coast, then moving back south to 30N.

[cycloneye]

Hummm a looping low out there but eventually it will go well away from any land in this part of the world.Anyway thanks 57 for that answer to my question.

[wxman57]

Yeah, it looks like a fish except for possibly affecting Bermuda. The wording of the current NHC outlooks suggest they'll just ignore it. Unless, of course, it does thraten Bermuda. That might cause the NHC to consider naming it.

[JCT777]

Now there's an interesting criteria. I would not be surprised though if you are correct, wxman - they will only consider naming the storm if it is supposed to affect land (i.e. Bermuda).

[cycloneye]

Yeah, it looks like a fish except for possibly affecting Bermuda. The wording of the current NHC outlooks suggest they'll just ignore it. Unless, of course, it does thraten Bermuda. That might cause the NHC to consider naming it.

57 they continue to ignore it http://www.hwn.org/hawt20us.htm as apparently they dont see a threat to Bermuda.

[rainstorm]

very interesting

[wxman57]

Convection is now falling apart near and east of the center as it accelerates northward for a rendezvous with another low east of Maine in 24-36 hours. Latest GFS and ECMWF still develop a strong low there and drop it southward.