ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[REDHurricane]

https://i.postimg.cc/LsJgVsyX/goes16-ir-92-L-202406192307.gif

I've seen plenty of storms get named that looked much worse than this one; hopefully we can get a direct ASCAT hit or have a recon flight go out there to investigate tomorrow/Saturday

[kevin]

92L right now. Interested to see what recon will find later today.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the
northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
early on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[ricka47]

Up to 40% now. Will it get a name?

[kevin]

[xironman]

The naked swirl is right on the south side in the middle. Upper winds look way to strong.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2024062012, , BEST, 0, 271N, 747W, 30, 1014, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[Ian2401]

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

92L right now. Interested to see what recon will find later today.

https://i.imgur.com/AcPt9EX.png

Plane en route.

[USTropics]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

As Ian posted, shear is not the main inhibiting factor. The latest GFS sounding shows rather modest values (~15 kt), and we don't have directional shear here (a change in wind direction with height and the most detrimental to cyclogenesis) but rather speed shear:


The low-level structure remains impressive this morning as well:



The main inhibiting factor remains the background state, in particular mid-level RH. We can see in the vis loop above convection remains limited in the southern quadrant, and taking a closer look at 700-300 RH values, directly to the south values are extremely low (~30%):


This has prevented the system from being able to sustain convection and vertically stack. The low-level circulation has been nudging north since last night (towards a more convectively conducive environment) and we're starting to see some convection fire in the NW quadrant this morning. I'd give this closer to a 60% chance of development as it nears the coastline of NFL/GA.

[Sciencerocks]

I think chances are decent for this to become beryl and make landfall on the United states as a named storm. LLC has formed and conditions look good enough for 35-40 knts.

[chaser1]

I have to take issue with the shear however. LLC clearly spun off to the N/NNW with an easterly mid or upper level flow playing a part in the present detachment. This, along with improving rel. humidity should aid in slightly better vertical development by later this evening or tonight

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1803817287956172840

[MGC]

Looks like 92L is starting to percolate. Just need a bit more convection near the center and perhaps a bit better defined circulation. Looks like the odds are improving for TC. Lets see what recon finds......MGC

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of
the northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. While environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast
early on Friday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
enroute to investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[tropicwatch]

HH reporting some nifty surface winds but could be just a squall line.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like there is a blowup right over the center that has rotated into it.