2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

Looking ahead past the potential BoC system everyone's talking about for next week, I noticed that the GFS has consistently (6 out the last 8 runs) forecast a system trying to form somewhere in the Gulf/NW Caribbean around 10-11 days out -- still a ways to go before anyone should be seriously concerned, but given the environment I think it's certainly worth monitoring over the next several days in addition to the BoC system:

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMXY0NHQxNjJmbzQ1dm1jN3NrY2pnMnQ1ZDF4ZDdhMXYzNW1hajdreiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3BF0hTGJEcrq4ZerAI/giphy.gif

Problem with that is the origin, you can see it on the GFS that it just randomly spins that system up out of nowhere in a region where the GFS is known to have a ton of false alarms. You can even see it do the same for another system before it but it fizzles out. Until other models show development for that system I am going to be taking it with a huge grain of salt.

[Woofde]

Looking ahead past the potential BoC system everyone's talking about for next week, I noticed that the GFS has consistently (6 out the last 8 runs) forecast a system trying to form somewhere in the Gulf/NW Caribbean around 10-11 days out -- still a ways to go before anyone should be seriously concerned, but given the environment I think it's certainly worth monitoring over the next several days in addition to the BoC system:

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMXY0NHQxNjJmbzQ1dm1jN3NrY2pnMnQ1ZDF4ZDdhMXYzNW1hajdreiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3BF0hTGJEcrq4ZerAI/giphy.gif

Problem with that is the origin, you can see it on the GFS that it just randomly spins that system up out of nowhere in a region where the GFS is known to have a ton of false alarms. You can even see it do the same for another system before it but it fizzles out. Until other models show development for that system I am going to be taking it with a huge grain of salt.

It's definitely a problematic region for the GFS and models in general. If you watch on the TPW, its origin is a lot clearer. It's actually created from that large healthy wave in the Eastern Atlantic. It crashes into South America and spins up shortly after.

Is it the most believable solution? Not really, but the seed is real in this case.

[skyline385]

Looking ahead past the potential BoC system everyone's talking about for next week, I noticed that the GFS has consistently (6 out the last 8 runs) forecast a system trying to form somewhere in the Gulf/NW Caribbean around 10-11 days out -- still a ways to go before anyone should be seriously concerned, but given the environment I think it's certainly worth monitoring over the next several days in addition to the BoC system:

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMXY0NHQxNjJmbzQ1dm1jN3NrY2pnMnQ1ZDF4ZDdhMXYzNW1hajdreiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3BF0hTGJEcrq4ZerAI/giphy.gif

Problem with that is the origin, you can see it on the GFS that it just randomly spins that system up out of nowhere in a region where the GFS is known to have a ton of false alarms. You can even see it do the same for another system before it but it fizzles out. Until other models show development for that system I am going to be taking it with a huge grain of salt.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fyBfkFdf/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh60-240.gif [/url]

It's definitely a problematic region for the GFS and models in general. If you watch on the TPW, its origin is a lot clearer. It's actually created from that large healthy wave in the Eastern Atlantic. It crashes into South America and spins up shortly after.

Is it the most believable solution? Not really, but the seed is real in this case. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/77680997109faf8a07dbbc00ae1a52bc.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/00958cfed7f79c07ef9812fd7918fcf0.jpg

TPW should not be used to trace origins, you can see on the 700mb vorticity plots that the large wave (marked as TW #8 by TAFB) ejects and dissipates into the open Atlantic so that is not the seed for the GFS spinning up the random system near CA. It is more than likely just your typical spurious vorticity from Venezuela which GFS is known for (other models do not suffer from this issue) as the moisture crashes into CA.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looking ahead past the potential BoC system everyone's talking about for next week, I noticed that the GFS has consistently (6 out the last 8 runs) forecast a system trying to form somewhere in the Gulf/NW Caribbean around 10-11 days out -- still a ways to go before anyone should be seriously concerned, but given the environment I think it's certainly worth monitoring over the next several days in addition to the BoC system:

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMXY0NHQxNjJmbzQ1dm1jN3NrY2pnMnQ1ZDF4ZDdhMXYzNW1hajdreiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3BF0hTGJEcrq4ZerAI/giphy.gif

Problem with that is the origin, you can see it on the GFS that it just randomly spins that system up out of nowhere in a region where the GFS is known to have a ton of false alarms. You can even see it do the same for another system before it but it fizzles out. Until other models show development for that system I am going to be taking it with a huge grain of salt.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fyBfkFdf/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh60-240.gif [/url]

It's definitely a problematic region for the GFS and models in general. If you watch on the TPW, its origin is a lot clearer. It's actually created from that large healthy wave in the Eastern Atlantic. It crashes into South America and spins up shortly after.

Is it the most believable solution? Not really, but the seed is real in this case. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/77680997109faf8a07dbbc00ae1a52bc.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/00958cfed7f79c07ef9812fd7918fcf0.jpg

That wave that just came off of Africa???? Is it Sep and and I've been asleep for 3 months??

[Woofde]

Problem with that is the origin, you can see it on the GFS that it just randomly spins that system up out of nowhere in a region where the GFS is known to have a ton of false alarms. You can even see it do the same for another system before it but it fizzles out. Until other models show development for that system I am going to be taking it with a huge grain of salt.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/fyBfkFdf/gfs-z850-vort-watl-fh60-240.gif [/url]

It's definitely a problematic region for the GFS and models in general. If you watch on the TPW, its origin is a lot clearer. It's actually created from that large healthy wave in the Eastern Atlantic. It crashes into South America and spins up shortly after.

Is it the most believable solution? Not really, but the seed is real in this case. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/77680997109faf8a07dbbc00ae1a52bc.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/00958cfed7f79c07ef9812fd7918fcf0.jpg

TPW should not be used to trace origins, you can see on the 700mb vorticity plots that the large wave (marked as TW #8 by TAFB) ejects and dissipates into the open Atlantic so that is not the seed for the GFS spinning up the random system near CA. It is more than likely just your typical spurious vorticity from Venezuela which GFS is known for (other models do not suffer from this issue) as the moisture crashes into CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/MH2sGt6s/gfs-z700-vort-eatl-fh0-120.gif

It's an origin in the fact that the moisture is clearly from that tropical wave. Its quite frequent that tropical waves lose vorticity, and the moisture continues onward to cause trouble down the line. Again, I agree with you that the storm itself is likely just a kink of the modeling in that area. It's just interesting to see that the large wave is connected.

[skyline385]

It's definitely a problematic region for the GFS and models in general. If you watch on the TPW, its origin is a lot clearer. It's actually created from that large healthy wave in the Eastern Atlantic. It crashes into South America and spins up shortly after.

Is it the most believable solution? Not really, but the seed is real in this case. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/77680997109faf8a07dbbc00ae1a52bc.gif https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/00958cfed7f79c07ef9812fd7918fcf0.jpg

TPW should not be used to trace origins, you can see on the 700mb vorticity plots that the large wave (marked as TW #8 by TAFB) ejects and dissipates into the open Atlantic so that is not the seed for the GFS spinning up the random system near CA. It is more than likely just your typical spurious vorticity from Venezuela which GFS is known for (other models do not suffer from this issue) as the moisture crashes into CA.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/MH2sGt6s/gfs-z700-vort-eatl-fh0-120.gif [/url]

It's an origin in the fact that the moisture is clearly from that tropical wave. Its quite frequent that tropical waves lose vorticity, and the moisture continues onward to cause trouble down the line. Again, I agree with you that the storm itself is likely just a kink of the modeling in that area. It's just interesting to see that the large wave is connected.

Its quite frequent that tropical waves lose vorticity, and the moisture continues onward to cause trouble down the line.

No this is not common at all or even possible in the NATL, a TW losing the trough axis means that the wave is dead especially when its getting ejected into the open Atlantic. There is a lot of moisture in the deep tropics and ITCZ, it doesnt mean that the NATL can create systems just from moisture itself.

[Woofde]

TPW should not be used to trace origins, you can see on the 700mb vorticity plots that the large wave (marked as TW #8 by TAFB) ejects and dissipates into the open Atlantic so that is not the seed for the GFS spinning up the random system near CA. It is more than likely just your typical spurious vorticity from Venezuela which GFS is known for (other models do not suffer from this issue) as the moisture crashes into CA.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/MH2sGt6s/gfs-z700-vort-eatl-fh0-120.gif [/url]

It's an origin in the fact that the moisture is clearly from that tropical wave. Its quite frequent that tropical waves lose vorticity, and the moisture continues onward to cause trouble down the line. Again, I agree with you that the storm itself is likely just a kink of the modeling in that area. It's just interesting to see that the large wave is connected.

Its quite frequent that tropical waves lose vorticity, and the moisture continues onward to cause trouble down the line.

No this is not common at all or even possible in the NATL, a TW losing the trough axis means that the wave is dead especially when its getting ejected into the open Atlantic. There is a lot of moisture in the deep tropics and ITCZ, it doesnt mean that the NATL can create systems just from moisture itself.

The area isn't going to become a pocket of dead air and moisture. It's will still retain some of its instability and traces of vorticity. It's just not going to look like the big beefy wave that shows up on modeling like it is now. This isn't just the usual ITCZ moisture. It's a large envelope of moisture associated with the wave.

[Woofde]

From hour 120 onwards, the ensembles are having a field day.

[Wampadawg]

From hour 120 onwards, the ensembles are having a field day.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240612/ebbae9cf9581a21cd06c5438c36f6d02.gif

No Kidding ,Thoughts from the Forum on it

[chaser1]

Present steering would drive any discrete MLC due west right now and limit the pool of moisture from benefitting S. Texas. Wait a few days and we'll begin to see an increased pressure gradient due to the west building Atlantic high pressure area along with the deep layer steering over the BOC appearing to slowly veer more SSE to southerly with time.

[Ivanhater]

All the 00Z models are in pretty excellent agreement for 10 days out on yet another Gulf system. This is after the BOC system

The CAG seems to be pumping out multiple systems. 00Z Euro has put its hat in the ring



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[skyline385]

All the 00Z models are in pretty excellent agreement for 10 days out on yet another Gulf system. This is after the BOC system

The CAG seems to be pumping out multiple systems. 00Z Euro has put its hat in the ring

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240613/9d42daec714745f8f73c4d28cf60217e.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240613/36d6d70066c9500c0a1227f815b0b157.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240613/f3ee48b5449f9c96e20a9f8f8e6a73b8.jpg

Sent from my motorola razr plus 2023 using Tapatalk

Interestingly, both GFS and Euro seem to have different genesis and solutions.

Euro has the system forming off the CAG as it gets pulled up north by the incoming trough into the BoC and then immediately cut-off by the building ridge off the east coast which is a believable and realistic solution. GFS on the other hand just does GFS stuff and forms the system in the Caribbean from nowhere lol.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS run hates Lake Charles. 12Z shifted to a much weaker storm into MS/AL border area. Every run has a completely different solution.

[Category5Kaiju]

6Z GFS run hates Lake Charles. 12Z shifted to a much weaker storm into MS/AL border area. Every run has a completely different solution.

Interestingly, I don't think the storm you are referring to is this current marked AOI (I initially thought that, but upon closer scrutiny it looks like the BoC AOI is separate from what looks to be another system that spins up from the same CAG that spawned the BoC system?)

[chaser1]

Per GFS, it's the CAG that keeps on giving

[Pas_Bon]

6Z GFS run hates Lake Charles. 12Z shifted to a much weaker storm into MS/AL border area. Every run has a completely different solution.

Interestingly, I don't think the storm you are referring to is this current marked AOI (I initially thought that, but upon closer scrutiny it looks like the BoC AOI is separate from what looks to be another system that spins up from the same CAG that spawned the BoC system?)

You’re correct. There is another system that should be fresh on the heels of this current AOI. Unfortunately, I think this will be a repeat scenario for some weeks now. The genie is out of the proverbial lamp. We will, quite possibly, be tracking multiple storms or consecutive storms for a while.

[lsuhurricane]

Staggering consistency from the GFS, this time the 18z run ejecting a system across the Yucatan. All while moving up the timing, so not as likely to be a phantom.

Won’t have to wait too long for verification.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS with a lot of rainfall along the Gulf Coast.

[Stratton23]

Holy mother of 18z model runs, that GFS is a nightmare, harvey 2.0, thankfully its long range so it wont verify, but still i get chills just looking at that run

[Cpv17]

Holy mother of 18z model runs, that GFS is a nightmare, harvey 2.0, thankfully its long range so it wont verify, but still i get chills just looking at that run

It said f taking shots, just give me the whole damn bottle