2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[cajungal]

My birthday is June 25th. Have a camping trip in Biloxi June 25th-30th. Hope this is out of here by then

[South Texas Storms]

I think the Euro and ICON are on to the right idea in the extended range...should see tropical moisture pool over the western Gulf this weekend. Something could try to develop as it pushes inland, likely into northeastern Mexico. It's still early but this system could bring some much needed rainfall to portions of Mexico and south Texas next week.

It looks like the 12z GFS is trending towards this solution now as well.

[Wampadawg]

I think the Euro and ICON are on to the right idea in the extended range...should see tropical moisture pool over the western Gulf this weekend. Something could try to develop as it pushes inland, likely into northeastern Mexico. It's still early but this system could bring some much needed rainfall to portions of Mexico and south Texas next week.

It looks like the 12z GFS is trending towards this solution now as well.

The Canucks look to be onboard

[Stratton23]

We need to watch this closely, modes are trending toward a potentially significant rainfall event next week, south texas could use the rain, but with se texas seeing so much rain over the past month, this bears watching, this type of pattern someone could easily see double digit rainfall totals, just need to see how this evolves

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, the GEFS ensembles explode with activity in the GoM at the end of next week. And the most recent GFS run has a 968 mbar hurricane hit the MS/AL coast. CMC's most recent run seems on board with the idea of some disturbance in the GoM at around the same timeframe too.

[Woofde]

Wow, the GEFS ensembles explode with activity in the GoM at the end of next week. And the most recent GFS run has a 968 mbar hurricane hit the MS/AL coast. CMC's most recent run seems on board with the idea of some disturbance in the GoM at around the same timeframe too.

Wow, yeah at hour 144, they light up like crazy. It's a lot of the members too. The Canadian ensembles show quite a few active members as well. Still a ways out, but the consistency isn't like the usual GFS ghost storm showing up for one or two runs and then disappearing. It could be a signal, though I'm not convinced yet.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a hurricane in the Gulf. Usually, the area is held back in June by both climo conditions and SSTs. If the atmosphere cooperates even for a brief period, the energy is there, unlike most years.

[Cpv17]

Wow, the GEFS ensembles explode with activity in the GoM at the end of next week. And the most recent GFS run has a 968 mbar hurricane hit the MS/AL coast. CMC's most recent run seems on board with the idea of some disturbance in the GoM at around the same timeframe too.

What’s the shear looking like around that time?

[StPeteMike]

I’ll give a few more runs and some other models jumping on before believing. Though GFS was wrong that 90L would form into a TS before visiting Florida, I believed it was correct in the increase moisture forecasting. And there’s still a chance that it can form after the state, the LLC is there. But the GFS also seems to get carried away sometimes after correctly forecasting one storm and wants to spit out multiples one after another. If the BoC storm actually develops, I’ll start believing more and more.

[crownweather]

Hey, look at that number 1 analog!! Hmmm.....

[Stratton23]

StPeteMike the GFS isnt alone in the BOC system, its ensembles, The euro and its ensembles are also somewhat bullish on that, CMC operational agrees as well, support is on the higher side

[Cpv17]

Usually in June shear is pretty high in the Gulf so I have my doubts.

[skyline385]

Its been a while since I have seen this level of agreement between models a week out (except timing being slightly off on the GFS), that BoC system is very likely happening. The genesis path seems to be the CAG over the CA as it moves northwards.

[chaser1]

The greater model consensus would lean toward possible near-term (4-7 days) genesis to occur offshore N. Florida/Georgia coastline, but I don't buy it. I tend to think that a more "GFS centric" option just makes more sense. Development east of N. Fla would really need to find some incredible sweet spot. Other then within the Gulf stream itself, SST's up there are barely marginal at best. There's no need to even discuss the SST's in the GOM. More importantly, the overall wind shear forecast would appear fairly favorable (especially in the southern and Western GOM), while the present and forecast wind shear forecast east of N. Florida looks like trash. Lastly, there is very clear 850mb energy and broad cyclonic motion over Central America and emanating from the ITCZ bulging up from the E. Pacific. Throw in Climo and I think there's a reasonable case to anticipate the GFS to better hone-in on a weak to moderate TC to develop just north of Yucatan or BOC. Hey Northern Mexico/Texas, this "Bud's" for you

That was this past Monday (without model support). Two days later...... model support. Brownsville TX, this Bud's for you. Enjoy the rain.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Broad ensemble support for a GOMEX tropical cyclone in ~7 days.

[Stratton23]

One thing that may determine where this likely BOC system will track is where a low forms, half the members of the GEFS and GEPS develop the low in the BOC leading to a mexico landfall, but the other half of both ensembles develop the low on the eastern side of the yucatan because the energy in the pacific rotates around the broader cyclonic spin of the CAG, or in the NW caribbean, that has significant implications on regards to any sort of path this potential system could take, which would leave the door open to texas

[JetFuel_SE]

One thing that may determine where this likely BOC system will track is where a low forms, half the members of the GEFS and GEPS develop the low in the BOC leading to a mexico landfall, but the other half of both ensembles develop the low on the eastern side of the yucatan because the energy in the pacific rotates around the broader cyclonic spin of the CAG, or in the NW caribbean, that has significant implications on regards to any sort of path this potential system could take, which would leave the door open to texas

I'd say anywhere from the Alabama/Mississippi border to Brownsville, TX is possible, assuming the 2nd scenario plays out.

[chaser1]

One thing that may determine where this likely BOC system will track is where a low forms, half the members of the GEFS and GEPS develop the low in the BOC leading to a mexico landfall, but the other half of both ensembles develop the low on the eastern side of the yucatan because the energy in the pacific rotates around the broader cyclonic spin of the CAG, or in the NW caribbean, that has significant implications on regards to any sort of path this potential system could take, which would leave the door open to texas

I'd say anywhere from the Alabama/Mississippi border to Brownsville, TX is possible, assuming the 2nd scenario plays out.

The only reason that I would tend to lean contrary to a N. GOM solutions (in the near/mid term) would be given the robust shear forecast. I think that the sub-tropical jet across the GOM would inhibit vertical development. A more "southern" solution such as the Bay of Campeche would seem to provide a far more conducive upper air environment. That's not to say that initial genesis couldn't occur in the far W. Caribbean but a west to WNW motion might be key for a respectable T.S. to develop. I suppose Cuba/Florida Keys could well play out assuming that the stronger upper level shear remain just north of S. Florida.

[REDHurricane]

Looking ahead past the potential BoC system everyone's talking about for next week, I noticed that the GFS has consistently (6 out the last 8 runs) forecast a system trying to form somewhere in the Gulf/NW Caribbean around 10-11 days out -- still a ways to go before anyone should be seriously concerned, but given the environment I think it's certainly worth monitoring over the next several days in addition to the BoC system:

[cycloneye]

The model runs for the BOC area are being posted at the thread for that area.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3066690

[Ivanhater]

Looking ahead past the potential BoC system everyone's talking about for next week, I noticed that the GFS has consistently (6 out the last 8 runs) forecast a system trying to form somewhere in the Gulf/NW Caribbean around 10-11 days out -- still a ways to go before anyone should be seriously concerned, but given the environment I think it's certainly worth monitoring over the next several days in addition to the BoC system:

https://media2.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMXY0NHQxNjJmbzQ1dm1jN3NrY2pnMnQ1ZDF4ZDdhMXYzNW1hajdreiZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3BF0hTGJEcrq4ZerAI/giphy.gif

Great post. A lot of times with a CAG set-up, it will spawn a couple system. After the BOC system, the north eastern lobe spits off another system which may find better conditions in the Gulf and threaten the Gulf coast