2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

Euro also caved in to the GFS with the moisture getting pulled over Florida so SFL is getting its rain finally

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/135k718g/image.png [/url]

This very heavy rainfall/clouds would likely cool SSTs in the Keys/FL Bay several degrees, which obviously be good news at least for the short term. The coral could use a break and that’s putting it mildly.

[skyline385]

Euro got something finally

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mgc801kx/image.png [/url]

Decently active EPS as well

[LarryWx]

1) UKMET runs since yesterday have been showing a very weak TC forming Wed or Thu off the SE US coast followed by NE movement OTS:

Here’s today’s 12Z run for that one:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 29.4N 77.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.06.2024 96 29.8N 76.6W 1012 28
0000UTC 14.06.2024 108 30.8N 75.7W 1012 21
1200UTC 14.06.2024 120 32.2N 75.0W 1014 23
0000UTC 15.06.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING


2) This is the first UKMET run showing a TCG in the W GOM as it has just gotten to within the 168 hr range. This one has significantly lower SLP than the TC it has for off the SE US. It is then moving NW toward the middle to upper TX coast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 26.1N 92.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.06.2024 168 27.2N 93.8W 1003 26

[Steve]

GFS with a couple things to watch. Moisture surge early week. Surface low following and dying out around coastal LA but sending storms to coastal TX then a new surge from the Caribbean with a resulting TS hit around Santa Rosa County in the late frames which are always suspect.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS shows a very slow moving weak depression/ storm that absolutely pounds the panhandle and central gulf as the Low approaches the upper texas coast bringing some rain bands, but weakening, something to watch as moisture will absolutely not be an issue with this system

[Stratton23]

00z GFS now develops the low more in the NW gulf and niw makes landfall along the middle texas coast as a weak tropical storm at hour 174 fwiw

[LarryWx]

00z GFS now develops the low more in the NW gulf and niw makes landfall along the middle texas coast as a weak tropical storm at hour 174 fwiw

The 0Z UKMET has a borderline TD/TS making landfall in W LA a week from now. This is the 2nd UKMET run in a row with this. The other run aimed for middle to upper TX but was still offshore at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 28.6N 91.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.06.2024 168 29.5N 92.3W 1002 34

[Stratton23]

Overnight Euro run brings a strong tropical wave into the texas coast and slowly moves inland, bringing some very impressive rain fall totals to the region

[skyline385]

Euro got something finally

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/mgc801kx/image.png [/url]

Euro really likes that BoC system

[wxman57]

Still looks like a trof or weak, sheared low may form somewhere in the Gulf next weekend. Overnight models are shifting westward toward TX/LA vs. FL. We could use some rain here. Good to see that the NHC is remaining silent on the system, as it will just be a rain maker and no significant wind threat.

[jlauderdal]

Still looks like a trof or weak, sheared low may form somewhere in the Gulf next weekend. Overnight models are shifting westward toward TX/LA vs. FL. We could use some rain here. Good to see that the NHC is remaining silent on the system, as it will just be a rain maker and no significant wind threat.

It wouldn't be a bad thing if those big totals advertised yesterday for Florida moved offshore to the west; I know we need rain, but it will take 2-6 and be happy.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'm starting to become intrigued by what may transpire off the SE coast in a few days. Lead time is relatively short, and model consensus is good. Think it's worth paying attention to this before anything potentially gets going in the Gulf.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 29.4N 78.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.06.2024 60 29.4N 78.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 13.06.2024 72 29.7N 78.2W 1009 32
1200UTC 13.06.2024 84 30.6N 76.4W 1011 30
0000UTC 14.06.2024 96 31.7N 75.5W 1011 23
1200UTC 14.06.2024 108 32.6N 75.7W 1013 22
0000UTC 15.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

[Tailgater33]

Still looks like a trof or weak, sheared low may form somewhere in the Gulf next weekend. Overnight models are shifting westward toward TX/LA vs. FL. We could use some rain here. Good to see that the NHC is remaining silent on the system, as it will just be a rain maker and no significant wind threat.

It wouldn't be a bad thing if those big totals advertised yesterday for Florida moved offshore to the west; I know we need rain, but it will take 2-6 and be happy.

Looking at the most recent ensembles, your area is still gonna get a lot of rain in the next 5 days, I hope it isn’t to much of a good thing

[LarryWx]

I'm starting to become intrigued by what may transpire off the SE coast in a few days. Lead time is relatively short, and model consensus is good. Think it's worth paying attention to this before anything potentially gets going in the Gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/p4YrmHp/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-eus-fh24-90-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/hRGpxjC/gem-mslp-pcpn-eus-fh24-144.gif
https://i.ibb.co/pz0czpy/icon-mslp-pcpn-eus-fh24-120.gif
https://i.ibb.co/7v4Fsp4/ecens-2024-06-10-06-Z-144-49-635-273-509-24-307-308-381-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 29.4N 78.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.06.2024 60 29.4N 78.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 13.06.2024 72 29.7N 78.2W 1009 32
1200UTC 13.06.2024 84 30.6N 76.4W 1011 30
0000UTC 14.06.2024 96 31.7N 75.5W 1011 23
1200UTC 14.06.2024 108 32.6N 75.7W 1013 22
0000UTC 15.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

I believe that’s the 5th UKMET run in a row showing that weak offshore the SE US TC. The others had it moving safely OTS to the NE though this 0Z run of today has it turning back N south of the NC OB.

[LarryWx]

I'm starting to become intrigued by what may transpire off the SE coast in a few days. Lead time is relatively short, and model consensus is good. Think it's worth paying attention to this before anything potentially gets going in the Gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/p4YrmHp/ecmwf-mslp-pcpn-eus-fh24-90-1.gif
https://i.ibb.co/hRGpxjC/gem-mslp-pcpn-eus-fh24-144.gif
https://i.ibb.co/pz0czpy/icon-mslp-pcpn-eus-fh24-120.gif
https://i.ibb.co/7v4Fsp4/ecens-2024-06-10-06-Z-144-49-635-273-509-24-307-308-381-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 29.4N 78.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.06.2024 60 29.4N 78.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 13.06.2024 72 29.7N 78.2W 1009 32
1200UTC 13.06.2024 84 30.6N 76.4W 1011 30
0000UTC 14.06.2024 96 31.7N 75.5W 1011 23
1200UTC 14.06.2024 108 32.6N 75.7W 1013 22
0000UTC 15.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

I believe that’s the 5th UKMET run in a row showing that weak offshore the SE US TC. The others had it moving safely OTS to the NE though this 0Z run of today has it turning back N south of the NC OB.

And now the 6th UKMET run in a row with the TCG off the SE coast with this one stronger (TS) but back to moving NE safely off the E coast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.6N 78.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.06.2024 48 28.6N 78.9W 1007 35
0000UTC 13.06.2024 60 29.0N 78.3W 1009 33
1200UTC 13.06.2024 72 30.8N 75.2W 1007 44
0000UTC 14.06.2024 84 31.7N 74.5W 1008 36
1200UTC 14.06.2024 96 31.6N 73.3W 1009 33
0000UTC 15.06.2024 108 33.6N 71.4W 1008 31
1200UTC 15.06.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING

[LarryWx]

00z GFS now develops the low more in the NW gulf and niw makes landfall along the middle texas coast as a weak tropical storm at hour 174 fwiw

The 0Z UKMET has a borderline TD/TS making landfall in W LA a week from now. This is the 2nd UKMET run in a row with this. The other run aimed for middle to upper TX but was still offshore at 168:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 28.6N 91.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.06.2024 168 29.5N 92.3W 1002 34

The 12Z UKMET dropped the W GOM TCG per their text product after having it on the prior two runs.

[skyline385]

It's too early for happy hour, GFS

Jokes aside, there probably will be something in Western GoM but GFS is overdoing it as usual

[chaser1]

The greater model consensus would lean toward possible near-term (4-7 days) genesis to occur offshore N. Florida/Georgia coastline, but I don't buy it. I tend to think that a more "GFS centric" option just makes more sense. Development east of N. Fla would really need to find some incredible sweet spot. Other then within the Gulf stream itself, SST's up there are barely marginal at best. There's no need to even discuss the SST's in the GOM. More importantly, the overall wind shear forecast would appear fairly favorable (especially in the southern and Western GOM), while the present and forecast wind shear forecast east of N. Florida looks like trash. Lastly, there is very clear 850mb energy and broad cyclonic motion over Central America and emanating from the ITCZ bulging up from the E. Pacific. Throw in Climo and I think there's a reasonable case to anticipate the GFS to better hone-in on a weak to moderate TC to develop just north of Yucatan or BOC. Hey Northern Mexico/Texas, this "Bud's" for you

[chaser1]

It's too early for happy hour, GFS

Jokes aside, there probably will be something in Western GoM but GFS is overdoing it as usual

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/1zQ3pNbb/gfs-mslp-pcpn-scus-60.png [/url]

If we were to see some weak nearer term GOM development unexpectedly occur, then consideration of that GFS 360 hr. forecast might begin to seem a little less out of right field.

[tolakram]

My only issue with the long term GFS is that when it happens to be somewhat correct this somehow is a credit to the model. It's not. When you randomly spin up everything and then it happens it does not mean you are better at early prediction.