2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[NDG]

Something you don't see too often this early on across the Caribbean.
Shear continues to drop below average and forecasted by all Global Consensus models to drop even more and into the GOM over the next couple of weeks.
You see all that easterly shear across the EPAC, that's always a sign for an above average Atlantic season.

[Gums]

Salute!

From a longtime observer and victim of the tropical things, I will predict a chaotic season.

The well known suspects are crying doom and gloom because water temp is so high this early. OTOH, the big ocean east of the U.S. may make for a more favorable environment for the waves to wrap up and the resulting storms traveling further north than usual and recurving more than we are used to seeing.

So being an optimist, I making that prediction - more storms and maybe more cat 3's, but most dying out in the middle of the big, warm ocean if the Bermuda high takes shape and is strong.

Gum sends...

[kevin]

I found an archived image of the maximum hurricane potential for June 9, 2020 which means we can directly compare it to the graphic for 2024. A portion of the MDR around 50W,15N was more extreme in 2020 with a larger potential C5 region. And furthermore the heat in the subtropics extended further in 2020, which that year was well-known for and resulted in a lot of early-season shorties. However, the heat in the most impactful regions (WCar, the GOM and the US East Coast) is much stronger this year. The GOM especially is worlds apart from its state in 2020 in terms of MPI. While this is only 1 part of the puzzle, it seems that in terms of MPI 2024 is keeping up or even surpassing 2020 at this point in the regions where it'll really matter during peak season.

2024



2020

[Category5Kaiju]

I found an archived image of the maximum hurricane potential for June 9, 2020 which means we can directly compare it to the graphic for 2024. A portion of the MDR around 50W,15N was more extreme in 2020 with a larger potential C5 region. And furthermore the heat in the subtropics extended further in 2020, which that year was well-known for and resulted in a lot of early-season shorties. However, the heat in the most impactful regions (WCar, the GOM and the US East Coast) is much stronger this year. The GOM especially is worlds apart from its state in 2020 in terms of MPI. While this is only 1 part of the puzzle, it seems that in terms of MPI 2024 is keeping up or even surpassing 2020 at this point in the regions where it'll really matter during peak season.

2024

https://i.imgur.com/LqJJVi4.png

2020

https://i.imgur.com/KkwHjCN.png

Also notice how in 2020 the max intensity was higher in the subtropics than this year. It's no surprise that 2020 had so many spinups in the subtropics. I'm definitely starting to believe that this year will feature more numerous and strong deep tropical activity as the gradient is sharper, even if that means sacrificing spam storms in the subtropics.

[skyline385]

I found an archived image of the maximum hurricane potential for June 9, 2020 which means we can directly compare it to the graphic for 2024. A portion of the MDR around 50W,15N was more extreme in 2020 with a larger potential C5 region. And furthermore the heat in the subtropics extended further in 2020, which that year was well-known for and resulted in a lot of early-season shorties. However, the heat in the most impactful regions (WCar, the GOM and the US East Coast) is much stronger this year. The GOM especially is worlds apart from its state in 2020 in terms of MPI. While this is only 1 part of the puzzle, it seems that in terms of MPI 2024 is keeping up or even surpassing 2020 at this point in the regions where it'll really matter during peak season.

2024

https://i.imgur.com/LqJJVi4.png

2020

https://i.imgur.com/KkwHjCN.png

One thing which immediately stands out is the maxed out MPI in central to eastern GoM for 2024. Goes in line with Webb's forecast based on the NM heat dome predicted showing heightened activity there. Of course this is still June and a lot can change by July and August but just worth noting for now.

[skyline385]

I found an archived image of the maximum hurricane potential for June 9, 2020 which means we can directly compare it to the graphic for 2024. A portion of the MDR around 50W,15N was more extreme in 2020 with a larger potential C5 region. And furthermore the heat in the subtropics extended further in 2020, which that year was well-known for and resulted in a lot of early-season shorties. However, the heat in the most impactful regions (WCar, the GOM and the US East Coast) is much stronger this year. The GOM especially is worlds apart from its state in 2020 in terms of MPI. While this is only 1 part of the puzzle, it seems that in terms of MPI 2024 is keeping up or even surpassing 2020 at this point in the regions where it'll really matter during peak season.

2024

https://i.imgur.com/LqJJVi4.png

2020

https://i.imgur.com/KkwHjCN.png

Also notice how in 2020 the max intensity was higher in the subtropics than this year. It's no surprise that 2020 had so many spinups in the subtropics. I'm definitely starting to believe that this year will feature more numerous and strong deep tropical activity as the gradient is sharper, even if that means sacrificing spam storms in the subtropics.

Both Arthur and Bertha (2020) formed off the Gulf stream east of Florida and if you compare MPIs, 2024 is definitely higher there so I am not seeing a correlation there. It's most likely the relatively colder pool off the east coast compared to the rest of the Atlantic resulting from the record +AMO which is introducing stable air there and preventing spin ups. It happens almost every time we have a classic +AMO configuration.

[Teban54]

I found an archived image of the maximum hurricane potential for June 9, 2020 which means we can directly compare it to the graphic for 2024. A portion of the MDR around 50W,15N was more extreme in 2020 with a larger potential C5 region. And furthermore the heat in the subtropics extended further in 2020, which that year was well-known for and resulted in a lot of early-season shorties. However, the heat in the most impactful regions (WCar, the GOM and the US East Coast) is much stronger this year. The GOM especially is worlds apart from its state in 2020 in terms of MPI. While this is only 1 part of the puzzle, it seems that in terms of MPI 2024 is keeping up or even surpassing 2020 at this point in the regions where it'll really matter during peak season.

2024

https://i.imgur.com/LqJJVi4.png

2020

https://i.imgur.com/KkwHjCN.png

Also notice how in 2020 the max intensity was higher in the subtropics than this year. It's no surprise that 2020 had so many spinups in the subtropics. I'm definitely starting to believe that this year will feature more numerous and strong deep tropical activity as the gradient is sharper, even if that means sacrificing spam storms in the subtropics.

Both Arthur and Bertha (2020) formed off the Gulf stream east of Florida and if you compare MPIs, 2024 is definitely higher there so I am not seeing a correlation there. It's most likely the relatively colder pool off the east coast compared to the rest of the Atlantic resulting from the record +AMO which is introducing stable air there and preventing spin ups. It happens almost every time we have a classic +AMO configuration.

I think Category5Kaiju may not have been referring to tracks like Arthur and Bertha, but the likes of Dolly, Edouard, Kyle and Omar (2020). These are the more classic "subtropical spams" that form off the coasts of mid-Atlantic and northeast US, many of which having transitioned from subtropical storms, before moving NE. 2024's SSTs do seem less supportive of such storms than 2020, in addition to the +AMO pattern's atmospheric impacts on subtropical activity.

[cycloneye]

The C3S model continues with a favorable look of the north atlantic and has the developing la niña.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1800140138854621516

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/catinsight/status/1800159129258054111

[SFLcane]

ooof... June CS3 that is a scary look!

[cycloneye]

Those two years mentioned by Phil were Niño years.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1800174392804335897

[chaser1]

Those two years mentioned by Phil were Niño years.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1800174392804335897

Interesting...... well, "models be damned" but this little tidbit suggests to me that we'll see a named small sloppy T.S. somewhere in the GOM between this Friday and Sunday
The two remaining options are:
2) we are presently in the midst of the most radical tropical Atlantic seasonal transition witnessed over the last half century, or
3) this upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will turn into perhaps the very biggest seasonal forecast bust since the creation of NOAA.

If I were in Vegas I'd be placing about 65% of my money on Option 1, with the remaining 35% of my money on option 2.

[Woofde]

June rarely means anything for the hurricane season. By the end of June climatology averages 2.5 ACE. That's less than 3% of the total seasonal activity.

[chaser1]

June rarely means anything for the hurricane season. By the end of June climatology averages 2.5 ACE. That's less than 3% of the total seasonal activity.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240610/292f2615ba50853044403f41be037c88.jpg

Your statement & graph is correct when viewing the Atlantic basin in isolation but is out of context with regard to Phil K's observation regarding the entire Western Hemisphere.
My post was based on the context of Phil K's observation that discussed inactivity throughout the entire Western Hemisphere.
That said, I won't hold it against the Atlantic (or East/Central Pacific) Basin if it is slightly deficient in reading a calendar

[skyline385]

Those two years mentioned by Phil were Niño years.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1800174392804335897

Interesting...... well, "models be damned" but this little tidbit suggests to me that we'll see a named small sloppy T.S. somewhere in the GOM between this Friday and Sunday
The two remaining options are:
2) we are presently in the midst of the most radical tropical Atlantic seasonal transition witnessed over the last half century, or
3) this upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will turn into perhaps the very biggest seasonal forecast bust since the creation of NOAA.

If I were in Vegas I'd be placing about 65% of my money on Option 1, with the remaining 35% of my money on option 2.

Regarding option 2, 2004 will probably remain unbeaten in that regard for a while. Completely dead June and most of July followed by 220+ ACE in just 2 months including a record breaking system in Ivan.

[skyline385]

EPAC looks to be even more unfavorable in next few weeks and the NATL might be getting an African Standing Wave through July to pump out AEWs continuously.

[Category5Kaiju]

EPAC looks to be even more unfavorable in next few weeks and the NATL might be getting an African Standing Wave through July to pump out AEWs continuously.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5239rBRB/image.png [/url]

With this newly tagged system and some rumblings of another possible system(s) in the W. Atlantic down the line, I think we're about to see the Atlantic wake up.

[StPeteMike]

EPAC looks to be even more unfavorable in next few weeks and the NATL might be getting an African Standing Wave through July to pump out AEWs continuously.

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/5239rBRB/image.png [/url]

With this newly tagged system and some rumblings of another possible system(s) in the W. Atlantic down the line, I think we're about to see the Atlantic wake up.

Latest GFS has the invest, a weak TS in BoC, and a Cat 2 hurricane near Biloxi. Also include a pretty strong wave about to exit Africa at the end.

July will be interesting.

[Deshaunrob17]

That wave in the Eastern Looks very impressive. Some EPS members try to briefly spin it up the day for so, but probably won’t amount to much until it reaches the Western Caribbean/ Gulf late next week.
Things are starting to look more interesting. Very soon (like the end of this month) I won’t be surprised if start looking out in the MDR for development. July is a month to watch. Models show shear really subsiding , so only Sharan Dust May keep the cap on.

[zzzh]

The persisting upper lows in the MDR is expected to retract in week 2 range. We could see some MDR systems starting last week of June.