2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

Sadly if the GFS is doing poorly with tropical systems, then we got problems for this season, the euro is about as good as hellen keller at seeing development, the CMC might be alright, but im not sure how well it handles tropical systems

What about UKMET (out to 7 days)? I don't mean for its often understated winds. I mean for TCG.

Also, opinions about ICON these days?

Nothing in the 12Z UKMET out to 144 hrs. Nothing on the ICON out to 180 hrs.

[Woofde]

Sadly if the GFS is doing poorly with tropical systems, then we got problems for this season, the euro is about as good as hellen keller at seeing development, the CMC might be alright, but im not sure how well it handles tropical systems

What about UKMET (out to 7 days)? I don't mean for its often understated winds. I mean for TCG.

Also, opinions about ICON these days?

I think the ICON is underrated. I'm not sure about the actual verification numbers, but from memory it's been performing pretty well. I know it was one of the closest with Idalia last year. It's shorter time range means people aren't looking at it as much, but anything over 7 days is largely guesswork anyway.

[Stratton23]

Very active signal in the EPS and GEFS guidance, once we get this MJO passage to occur which should be over the next week or so, we will begin to see models get more excited lol, as for people canceling the season already, you can’t fix stupidity in some folks

[Nimbus]

The Euro depicts a long wave shearing the forecast moisture in the gulf east over Florida until about 240 hours.
If there was a strong surface low still in the gulf at 10 days the shear would relax and the steering would shift the track toward Texas or Louisiana as the GFS depicts. A system might even form at the tail end of the front if it digs far enough south. Not as likely a scenario at this time so this phantom storm will probably be the GFS first loss of the season. With the high SST's the kettles on the boil, maybe GFS is singing "And I believe I'm gonna rain"?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1798857889584693506

[Stratton23]

Lame, I want something to track lol

[jlauderdal]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1798857889584693506

Interesting setup next week, we could use 6 inches of rain or more on the se coast of fl. A prolonged moisture surge looks likely that can bust a drought.

[Cpv17]

Lame, I want something to track lol

I’d say there’s a decent chance we could get a sheared TS out of this. Ensemble support is slightly increasing for it. Not saying it’s likely but it’s definitely possible.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 a sheared system is better than nothing, with this rather boring pattern we are in right now, just want something to track other than miserable temperatures lol

[skyline385]

Sadly if the GFS is doing poorly with tropical systems, then we got problems for this season, the euro is about as good as hellen keller at seeing development, the CMC might be alright, but im not sure how well it handles tropical systems

What about UKMET (out to 7 days)? I don't mean for its often understated winds. I mean for TCG.

Also, opinions about ICON these days?

I think the ICON is underrated. I'm not sure about the actual verification numbers, but from memory it's been performing pretty well. I know it was one of the closest with Idalia last year. It's shorter time range means people aren't looking at it as much, but anything over 7 days is largely guesswork anyway.

ICON doesnt have verification readily available because its not used by the NHC but it is definitely a much better model than the CMC. I have been tracking it for the past 3-4 years and it generally always trends with the Euro since iirc they have similar data assimilation. It was also the first model which captured Ian going through Florida and turning in to NC.

[skyline385]

Sadly if the GFS is doing poorly with tropical systems, then we got problems for this season, the euro is about as good as hellen keller at seeing development, the CMC might be alright, but im not sure how well it handles tropical systems

GFS is over-aggressive but that's not a problem nor can be said as doing poorly with tropical systems. In fact its a desired trait to avoid missing systems until its too late like the Euro typically does. You can see this in the NHC intensity forecast verification as well, GFS (GFSI) is the only deterministic model close to OFCL (which is NHC's forecast) in medium range, beat only by consensus models HCCA and IVCN. That is no simple feat and while people (including me) love to meme on the GFS, it is pretty good because of its traits at detecting TCG. EMXI which is the Euro is at the bottom of the plot because it is just absolutely horrible at intensity estimates and also why it misses TCG so much.

Also, this doesn't mean the Euro is bad, in fact it is the best individual model for track forecasts as can be seen in the track forecast verification. It pretty much lines up perfectly with OFCL and even beats consensus models like HCCA at medium range which is just crazy impressive.

So to summarize, nothing has changed and we are not screwed for this season. GFS will do what it is does and continue being over-aggressive which is good because we wont be accidently missing TCG anywhere. Euro on the other hand will continue to be track king so that we have two models both of which can combine (along with the rest of the model suite) to give us the information needed.

[weeniepatrol]

I dunno, GFS has issues but at least it does sniff out systems first. Broken clock though

[REDHurricane]

Just taking a quick glance at the models, it looks like the conditions are absolutely primed for tropical development and the only reason we're (probably) not going to see a strong hurricane from this setup is because the vorticity center will be located over land and not water -- let's hope we get a lot more of these random strokes of good luck throughout the rest of the season, because otherwise it's going to be a long one...

[Cpv17]

Just taking a quick glance at the models, it looks like the conditions are absolutely primed for tropical development and the only reason we're (probably) not going to see a strong hurricane from this setup is because the vorticity center will be located over land and not water -- let's hope we get a lot more of these random strokes of good luck throughout the rest of the season, because otherwise it's going to be a long one...

Isn’t there a lot of shear out there? It usually is in June.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 right now their is, but I expect the shear will be decreasing as we go forward in the season

[Stratton23]

The 00z CMC has trended toward the GFS, with a developing closed low in the bay of campache, drifts it NW as a depression/ weak storm approaching northern mexico/ deep south texas, GFS continues to show development, interesting that another global model has jumped on board

[Stratton23]

00z Euro not on board yet , but has a slightly sharper wave axis, interestingly enough the euro brings that area of moisture/ tropical wave right into the texas coastline though
EPS support is definitely increasing as well

[psyclone]

A heavy rain event looks increasingly likely over Southern Florida. While this could cause some problems it may prove a net benefit as it could douse a short term drought, hose the marine heatwave and jump start the rainy season. Drought plagued areas in Mexico and Central America could get needed relief as well.

[Pas_Bon]

Lame, I want something to track lol

We can tell.

[Cpv17]

Does anyone know how many members the GEFS and EPS have?

Thanks.