2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

This does have the potential makings for eventual PTC Watches/Warnings and eventual (unnecessary) naming of a short-life 40-45 kt. N.E. quad. gradient-cane. Oh NAM.... we turn our lonely eyes to you.... Hey, I'm personally hopeful for no other reason than to help green up our brown Florida lawns! Gotta look out for some model run to run consistency though

[StPeteMike]

That’s what I’m banking on. Anything below 60 mph tropical storm that is right-heavy when it comes to precipitation, I will take!

Watch the 0z GFS drop all increased moisture…

[kevin]

06z GFS has a slower-moving system which eventually becomes a TC in the GOM.

[Stratton23]

A slower moving system would give more time for the heat ridge to expand and move eastward preventing a northward motion into florida, storm would be forced more NW towards the central or even western gulf coast, just gotta keep watching it

[wxman57]

Still not buying the GFS at all. It's all alone in the prediction of a Gulf TS/H. It may be right in predicting some moisture moving across the Gulf next week, but that's about it.

[skyline385]

GEFS and EPS are still quite far off from each other and knowing GFS' history I tend to believe more towards the EPS' chances

[Kingarabian]

From the CAG, Euro has a TC in the EPAC while the GFS has it in the GOM.

[lsuhurricane]

Would appear that both the 12s suites of GFS and CMC are both sniffing development around the Yucatan 6-7 day range.

Upper level continental shear appears to be prohibiting factor in both cases.

[Ivanhater]

Still not buying the GFS at all. It's all alone in the prediction of a Gulf TS/H. It may be right in predicting some moisture moving across the Gulf next week, but that's about it.

12 Z Canadian jumps onboard with GFS

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[wxman57]

Still not buying the GFS at all. It's all alone in the prediction of a Gulf TS/H. It may be right in predicting some moisture moving across the Gulf next week, but that's about it.

12 Z Canadian jumps onboard with GFS https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240605/79468a9a516a2c88ae8524ec7fc99d75.jpg

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I think that there is a good chance moisture will move across the Gulf toward Florida next week. 12Z GFS is backing off on the TS/H forecast in favor of a weak low.

[psyclone]

A non storm is the likely scenario. Hopefully we get a slug of deep tropical moisture pulling up and over Florida to help jump start our rainy season. That appears increasingly likely

[Stratton23]

Euro looks like it is slowly caving towards the GFS with a weak circulation trying to develop, but instead of florida ita taking whatever “ circulation “ their is or even a strong open wave, further west , its sitting in the NW gulf, but do to what will likey be a very broad system, florida should still see a good amount of rain, unfortunately the GFS and Euro have trended toward the front that supposed to come down and stall, weakening and allowing high pressure to build in over the central US, blocking this system from truely coming ashore in florida, Euro takes it toward florida initially, but then feels the ridge and gets shunted off to the west

[Nimbus]

Euro looks like it is slowly caving towards the GFS with a weak circulation trying to develop, but instead of florida ita taking whatever “ circulation “ their is or even a strong open wave, further west , its sitting in the NW gulf, but do to what will likey be a very broad system, florida should still see a good amount of rain, unfortunately the GFS and Euro have trended toward the front that supposed to come down and stall, weakening and allowing high pressure to build in over the central US, blocking this system from truely coming ashore in florida, Euro takes it toward florida initially, but then feels the ridge and gets shunted off to the west

12Z euro 24hr QPF amount forecast shows storms entering the gulf from the Caribbean starting about Tuesday
next week. Looks like most of the precip will be from the eastern quadrants of the surface low but the system persists out past 230 hours so there would be time for a low level center to gradually form.

[cycloneye]

The new Euro EC-AIFS has a storm in NW GOM, but is at 360 hours.

[psyclone]

WPC and CPC guidance is tilting wet over the Florida peninsula which fits well with climo along with the expected longwave pattern over north America. Probably a slug of tropical juice gets pulled north and northeast ward over FL. At this early point...looking for trends in those products is probably the best course of action.

[skyline385]

The new Euro EC-AIFS has a storm in NW GOM, but is at 360 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/QWH5n2t.png

That looks just like the one strong EPS member from 12z, AIFS has been performing great for mid latitude features afaik

[jlauderdal]

The new Euro EC-AIFS has a storm in NW GOM, but is at 360 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/QWH5n2t.png

That looks just like the one strong EPS member from 12z, AIFS has been performing great for mid latitude features afaik

The atlantic basin isnt ready, we see this every year, lots of early season noise, minimal development. Listen to wxman57. Take this time to prepare, everyone has been warned.

[DunedinDave]

The new Euro EC-AIFS has a storm in NW GOM, but is at 360 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/QWH5n2t.png

That looks just like the one strong EPS member from 12z, AIFS has been performing great for mid latitude features afaik

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/B64wb1yJ/image.png [/url]

The atlantic basin isnt ready, we see this every year, lots of early season noise, minimal development. Listen to wxman57. Take this time to prepare, everyone has been warned.

I’ll admit I was expecting something early in June given the forecasts and how hot the water is already. A lot of times we get something the first half of June and then get nothing until late August.

[Stratton23]

The rising air phase of the MJO or positive phase will be settling in over the atlantic basin soon, so i do expect to see activity increasing as we get past mid month (13th or so and beyond)

[Hurricane2022]

Can we now start canceling 2024 or is it too early?