Category5Kaiju wrote:SFLcane wrote:cycloneye wrote:Weather Channel increases the numbers from the last update.
https://i.imgur.com/prSxR3Z.jpeg
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... 13yOgjhlLZ
Cause 1983 as an analog makes any sense?
I think they picked 1983 because 1983 was a decent La Nina year that occurred after a strong El Nino. Those analog years are merely picked based on ENSO base state, I think. Beyond that, there are hardly any similarities with 2024, especially given how absurdly warm we are now.
But when talking about Atlantic activity, it's pretty important to factor in the Atlantic when choosing analogs imo.