Ohio Valley Winter Forecast/Local Met's report

[Miss Mary]

Fox local affiliate, Cincinnati's WXIX's local Met Rich Apuzzo just posted his 2003/04 Ohio Valley Winter Forecast. Looks to be cold and snowy!

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http://www.fox19.com/Global/story.asp?S ... v=0zHGJ9fs

2003 - 2004 Winter Weather Outlook

From Meteorologist Rich Apuzzo

Here it is!  The long-awaited, much requested, award-winning (possibly), highly accurate Winter Weather Outlook, provided exclusively by me.  Last year was a lot of fun, meteorologically speaking, but for many the winter weather was something not experienced for some time.  There was the usual snow and cold, but the most damage was caused by a significant ice storm that hit parts of Ohio and Indiana, and most of Kentucky on February 15th and 16th, 2003.

Ocean currents play a major role in the development of storms and jet stream patterns around the world.  We have ocean-atmosphere cycles in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans that can last 10 to 20 years, with some cycles lasting 50 years or more.  In the Pacific, one such cycle is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).  In the Atlantic, there is an ocean-atmosphere cycle called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  You can learn more about these cycles with the links below.  In the past 20 years, the PDO has been in a “warm phase”, which correlates well with our milder winters.  The NAO has been in a “positive phase”, which also favors milder winters here.  Last year the PDO and NAO were both trending more negative, and we had a cold, stormy winter.  This year the NAO is shifting back toward the positive phase, which we have seen through most of the 1990s.  The PDO is also heading back toward a warm phase.  A weak El Nino is trying to develop as warmer than average waters are returning to the Equatorial Pacific off the west coast of South America.  So, are we heading back into a mild, quiet winter?  If the NAO and PDO always dictated our winter, then I would say yes.  However, there are other factors in play and this winter will be anything but quiet.

We have already had large, bitter cold pools of air across Canada, and with an active Pacific storm track, much of Canada has seen significant snowfall.  With a weak El Nino and an active jet stream bringing moisture-laden storms in from the North Pacific Ocean, I think we’ll continue to see a widespread, solid snow pack in much of Canada.  Why is that important?  With snow already on the ground it is easier for polar air masses to move south without warming much, so arctic air can move into the United States and remain bitter cold as it sweeps across the Midwest.  I also think that the weak El Nino will aid in the development of a stronger sub-tropical (southern) jet stream.  Now, combine arctic air and storms coming from the west, and what do you get?  You get the potential for powerful, damaging winter storms.  We saw a hint of this pattern in November when a powerful storm produced widespread damaging winds across the Midwest and New England.  We witnessed shots of unusually cold air, and then days that seemed almost spring-like.  I think we can expect that throughout the winter.

So, here’s what I expect for the fun-filled winter (December through February) of 2003-2004.  Look for an active storm track across the country through the three-month period, which should lead to above average precipitation.  Since many of the storms will be moving from west-to-east, expect many storms to bring a mix or precipitation to the area, usually starting as rain, then changing to sleet, freezing rain and snow.  A few storms that stay further south may bring significant snow to the tri-state area, and to that end I think we’ll see from 20 to 30 inches of snowfall, the heaviest being in our northern viewing area.  With Canada being so cold, so early in the season I think we’ll see colder than average temperatures for the period, though it would not be surprising to see wild temperature swings as storms proceed across the area.  With the active pattern, I also think we may threaten both record highs and record lows during the winter.  Any time you have large and powerful storm systems, you can expect temperature extremes.  We started November, 2003 with record warmth, so the precedent has already been set.

Last year was certainly exciting, and I think we’ll have many new memories from this winter…I hope they’re all good ones for you. 

Keep Watching The Skies!

Rich Apuzzo

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Just thought I'd share it with interested members.

Mary 

[Guest]

Thanks Miss Mary ................I for one do appericate you sharing that and as well agree with what he said!!!

[Miss Mary]

KOW - you're welcome! Knew you'd like this forecast. Rich Apuzzo is the only local Met to do this. Others will hint we're to have a snowy winter but so far I've never found such a thorough seasonal forecast (he posts one for each season). He also likes to pat himself on the back too much - yes, folks you heard it right here, I predicted 6 inches of snow and we got it! That I could do without or his hinting this forecast may be award winning! LOL But it is fun to read his forecasts!

Mary

[JCT777]

So, here’s what I expect for the fun-filled winter (December through February) of 2003-2004. Look for an active storm track across the country through the three-month period, which should lead to above average precipitation. Since many of the storms will be moving from west-to-east, expect many storms to bring a mix or precipitation to the area, usually starting as rain, then changing to sleet, freezing rain and snow. A few storms that stay further south may bring significant snow to the tri-state area, and to that end I think we’ll see from 20 to 30 inches of snowfall, the heaviest being in our northern viewing area. With Canada being so cold, so early in the season I think we’ll see colder than average temperatures for the period, though it would not be surprising to see wild temperature swings as storms proceed across the area. With the active pattern, I also think we may threaten both record highs and record lows during the winter. Any time you have large and powerful storm systems, you can expect temperature extremes. We started November, 2003 with record warmth, so the precedent has already been set.

That easily sounds like it could be the winter forecast for Philadelphia, PA.

[therock1811]

It could be...Mary thanks for posting this...I totally agree with this forecast as well...however, I don't normally watch fox19...

[Miss Mary]

Jeremy - I trust Channel 12 the most, when it comes to forecasts you can count on. Tim Hedrick - he's the man! I think of him as the Jim Cantore of Cincinnati!!! I like Rich Apuzzo okay but he gets so caught up in the excitement you often wonder if the forecast is exaggerated or realistic. Watch when a snowstorm is coming and you'll see what I mean. CincinnatiSun/Steve and I have PM'ed about Rich Apuzzo! He's good at getting you all fired up for snow but it's Channel 12 I turn to when I really need to know if a big storm is coming or not.

Mary

[therock1811]

Exactly...I as well use 12news more...especially in the am, I watch Steve Horstmeyer, no bull, he tells it as it is...if you watched on Dec. 31, 2001, I was there with him that day, I put him on the track of a possible storm, and sure enough, it happened...I like to call that my first correct forecast LOL...

[RNS]

Rich breings up a good point about the PDO. however the is one more interesting connection that i have uncovered.

Warm phase PDO winters within the Longer-term cold cycle with weak El Nino conditions (regardless of QBO state) with the greatest above normal SSTA anomalies centered in the 3.4 and 4.0 regions tend to favor the increased likelihood of major east coast snow events.

If the warmest SSTA are centered between 180 and 150E...the downstream pattern favors ridging near japan, a more intense Alleutian low, and Positive PNA pattern across north america in january. If other factors favor such conditions already...the signal will be enhanced, if not, then it will be diminished. This feature is present this winter.

[RNS]

the only diffedrence is this time, the ridging near japan argues for a trough in the easten part of the country due to the predominance of the +PNA pattern.

The AGCM climate model shows this pattern perfectly:

AGCM forecasted SSTA anom:



Notice the warming in the western pacific Nino regions particular to this pattern. also from the figure below we can see that increased rainfall (indicative of increased convection and warmer SSTA) are noted across the far western tropical pacific:



this supports the set-up of a height pattern consistent with a western equatorial paciifc warm pool. the AGCM 200 hPa forecast is shown below:



Note also...the strong blocking signatures across greenland, the tendency for ridging in the western part of the country and strong alleutain low. (the exact opposite of what we have going now).

I am fairly confident that the AGCM is correct about the NAO signal...however i feel that the Pacific Signal will be more variable...behaving much like it was during the winters of 1995/96 and 2000/01. so while we will not see a dominating PNA all the time...a +PNA should be slightly favored in the means.

overall, January should be a very cold month given that signal. Recall we also had it during the 2001/02 winter (the western EQ PAC warmpool), but due to the singal for a positive EPO, High solar activity (weaker alleutian low, strong Icelandic low favored in the means). it didint mean Sh*t.

this year...it should be a very critical factor given the fact that there is not high solar actiivty in the means, and the pacific singnal to begin with is in an overall neutral state. this could be what is needed to tip the scales and create a distinct cold bias in the eastern part of the country.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/atm_fo ... urrent.gif

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/atm_fo ... urrent.gif

[CINCINNATISUN]

I'm with you Mary, I think channel 12 WKRC does the best
job of giving an honest forecast. Pete Delkus does ok but
I think he is more interested in how he looks on camera
than what he's talking about. Also they brag on channel 9
about their " most powerful, most accurate " radar systems
which gets old too lol. Rich Apuzzo is fun to watch and like
you said when a snow is coming he sure gets fired up lol
but he's not too accurate at times.

If Rich is correct I better get my snowblower prepared for
another wild winter like last year !

[WxDen]

I'm with you Mary, I think channel 12 WKRC does the best
job of giving an honest forecast. Pete Delkus does ok but
I think he is more interested in how he looks on camera
than what he's talking about. Also they brag on channel 9
about their " most powerful, most accurate " radar systems
which gets old too lol. Rich Apuzzo is fun to watch and like
you said when a snow is coming he sure gets fired up lol
but he's not too accurate at times.

If Rich is correct I better get my snowblower prepared for
another wild winter like last year !

If you like "muck"that is. Sounds like he's going with more mixed crap than anything there. Although he does say near normal snowfall. It sounds as though he expects the high end of that to be north of say, the Cincy metro area. If the basic pattern of now, as he thinks seems likely,( only shifted southward as an adjustment for the winter months) stays intact he is probably about right. However, as RNS pointed out, there appears to be some changes occuring in crucial areas of the ocean ssta's recently. This is detailed over on Dt's WXRISK site. The +NAO could start going back Neg. The thing that worries me is the Stinking solar flares. This appears to be this winters enemy IMO.

[therock1811]

I don't think the flares will have much impact this winter...the NAO should start to go negative about the 1st, which would bring some colder air...additionally, it looks like winter will rear its ugly head as soon as next week, with temps dropping thru the day on Monday, and struggling to get to 40 Tuesday...

[therock1811]

BTW this supplements what I mentioned above:



as may this:

And this text from WLWT-TV says the same thing...???

http://www.channelcincinnati.com/weather/

TODAY: Mostly sunny and warmer. High: 66.
TONIGHT: Becoming partly cloudy, milder. Low 48.
TOMORROW: Becoming partly sunny and warm. High 65.
SUNDAY: Becoming mostly cloudy with showers developing late. Windy and very mild. High 67.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
MONDAY: Blustery with showers likely, then mixing with or changing to snow flurries. High 46 and falling to the 30s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and very cool. High 43.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a few showers likely. High 48.
THANKSGIVING: Variably cloudy and cool. High 48.

Any opinions??? And BTW can someone downsize the second image please?

(Updated at 3:44pm 11/21/03)

[JCT777]

Looks like some nice cool weather is heading your way, Jeremy. Enjoy!

[therock1811]

I like it better at 60° like it is now...but it will be nice to see snowfall for a change...

[Miss Mary]

I'm with you Mary, I think channel 12 WKRC does the best
job of giving an honest forecast. Pete Delkus does ok but
I think he is more interested in how he looks on camera
than what he's talking about. Also they brag on channel 9
about their " most powerful, most accurate " radar systems
which gets old too lol. Rich Apuzzo is fun to watch and like
you said when a snow is coming he sure gets fired up lol
but he's not too accurate at times.

If Rich is correct I better get my snowblower prepared for
another wild winter like last year !

LOL CSun!!!! Bingo on your Pete Delkus opinion! Couldn't agree more. Is his hair dyed or what? I imagine Rich's is too. Wow, listen to us go here.....LOL Pete's a good guy though, he's just not up to Channel 12 standards. Close, but not quite.

Jeremy, I've always liked Steve Horstmeyer too! He's also a fellow fan of the local band we've followed for years and it's many incarnations - the raisins/psychodots. He'd show up at shows all the time. With a hat on, incognito so to speak. Not that being a local Met is celeb status but it was prety cool to see him in the crowd.

Mary

[therock1811]

Here's Rich's forecast from FOX19.com:


Fri
Hi 65 F
Lo 45 F
Mostly Sunny
Sat
Hi 64 F
Lo 47 F
Partly Sunny
Sun
Hi 67 F
Lo 50 F
Mostly Cloudy
Mon
Hi 43 F
Lo 26 F
Rain Early / Flurries by Afternoon
Tue
Hi 45 F
Lo 28 F
Mostly Sunny
Wed
Hi 47 F
Lo 31 F
Light Rain / Mixed with Snow
Thu
Hi 48 F
Lo 28 F
Partly Cloudy
You see the progression? Also the other stations calling for the same thing for next week??

[GalvestonDuck]

As long as it's not icy during Christmas. I don't want to drive in that.

[therock1811]

Me neither........

[mrfreeze]

Here in st.louis we have a guy that gave his winter forecast about a week ago. some of you may have heard of him his name is dave murray. he is from boston originally and was on good morning america from 83-85. he's been here since 89 i think. his forecast for last winter was dead on as was his forecast the winter before.

This year he has called for a very cold december, the coldest since 89. 83, 89 and 2000 were the three coldest decembers i remember since the late seventies. he said the first part of january would also be cold, followed by the usual january thaw then back to cold again for a couple of weeks.

December and january are supposed to be relatively dry however. febuary is usually our wettest month of the winter and this winter is not supposed to be any exception. wild temp swings, followed by severe thunderstorms and snow. i have a feeling our biggest snow will either come in febuary or march. occasionally we get snow in april even.

He said we would get about the average amount of snow here this winter. which is somewhere around 19 to 20 inches.