Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Wthrfan]

I'm detecting a bit of a change in Larry Cosgrove's bullish winter weather forecast..https://clearskyweather.com/2024/02/08/ ... he-offing/

[Yukon Cornelius]

Starting to look better for snow up here on Sunday. Fingers crossed.

[Gotwood]

Oklahoma and parts of Red River (WF) snowstorm later this weekend on NAM.

Good old fashioned clown maps run!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2024020812/084/sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

I’ll take off Monday and drive for that lol.

[Stratton23]

Wthrfan not really lol, the operational GFS is completely lost with the pattern, which is basically what he is saying, and its true, the GFS has been so awful this year with seeing any sort of cold air, its 500 mb height patten is not even like its ensemble, Euro and CMC model guidance have been consistent, so his forecast remains the same

[Gotwood]

Wthrfan not really lol, the operational GFS is completely lost with the pattern, which is basically what he is saying, and its true, the GFS has been so awful this year with seeing any sort of cold air, its 500 mb height patten is not even like its ensemble, Euro and CMC model guidance have been consistent, so his forecast remains the same

No kidding the GFS has been terrible in the long range.

[Stratton23]

Well the 12z GFS made some progress, still feel that the CMC and Euro guidance have a better handling on the upper air pattern pattern overall, the GFS is a good model for many things, but certainly not for seeing any sort of cold air

[Iceresistance]

Trend of the Euro-Ensembles, like, what is happening??

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVo.gif

I also decided to add the Mean 500 mb, also from the Euro-Ensembles.

https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVJ.gif

[Ntxw]

Trend of the Euro-Ensembles, like, what is happening??
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVo.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVo.gif

I also decided to add the Mean 500 mb, also from the Euro-Ensembles.
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVJ.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVJ.gif

Models have slowed the system down from medium range so seeing more moisture. Cold air is still quite marginal though, all system dependent.

[Iceresistance]

Trend of the Euro-Ensembles, like, what is happening??
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVo.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVo.gif

I also decided to add the Mean 500 mb, also from the Euro-Ensembles.
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVJ.gif
https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCUVJ.gif

Models have slowed the system down from medium range so seeing more moisture. Cold air is still quite marginal though, all system dependent.

I have noticed on the forecasts that it has trended colder

[Brent]

Lmao on the radio just now "maybe some snow flurries" yeah we'll go with that

I mean I am deeply concerned about temps but unlike January there's no dry air or 2 hour window only to do anything. January never had a high ceiling inside 4 days

[Ntxw]

Not sure if it matters later, but Euro took another tick south. Looks like Wichita no longer gets much like before.

[Ntxw]

Quite the snow storm for panhandle and OK.

[Iceresistance]

That Euro is even crazier than the GFS!


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/SCV2T.gif

[Brent]

A foot in OKC on the Euro? As I'm sitting here running the AC

People gonna be surprised if some of these runs are legit

[Ntxw]

A foot in OKC on the Euro? As I'm sitting here running the AC

People gonna be surprised if some of these runs are legit

Largest snow storm in OKC history is Dec 2009 13.5".

[Stratton23]

Very chaotic upper level pattern on the euro, very weird though

[Ntxw]

Very chaotic upper level pattern on the euro, very weird though

One thing is for sure, a slow moving STJ is going to set up over Northern MEX and Texas. SOI has been hovering near -40 all week, very wet period ahead. Would not be surprised if someone ended with 10"+ rain total over a duration.

[Stratton23]

In addition to our active STJ, models at least agree on cold air building in canada, its just a question of when does it get dislodged, something the operational models will really struggle with, especially since their are a lot of moving parts in this pattern

[wxman57]

Very chaotic upper level pattern on the euro, very weird though

One thing is for sure, a slow moving STJ is going to set up over Northern MEX and Texas. SOI has been hovering near -40 all week, very wet period ahead. Would not be surprised if someone ended with 10"+ rain total over a duration.

Here's the 12Z Euro rain forecast for Texas area. Looks like 1-2 inches up in the D-FW area and 3-6 inches in SE TX. We certainly don't need any more rain in Houston. I measured over 9" in January and already 2" in February. The water in my backyard is finally not above the top of the grass. Need to save some rain for summer.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZEuroRain.JPG

[Texas Snowman]

 https://x.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1755668226229326276