Texas Winter 2023-2024

[orangeblood]

17th-21st has always been the target period to watch as mentioned a few days ago on here. Ensembles generally for the most part have been highlighting that period over the past several runs and so it's not a surprise to see the GFS, Euro and Canadian operationals introduce some colder air around that timeframe.

I think anyone going to the extremes though (Jan of this year or Feb 2021) is just hyping, but as also mentioned yesterday, you don't need those extremes to get some snow out of this before winter is all said and done. You just need enough cold air to time just right with these disturbances and that's going to be the real challenge. I'll say this...I didn't see a lot of "pacific air" with that 12z run of the GFS though as someone mentioned prior. Being that we're still a few weeks out. the waiting game continues.

The Ensembles have been very consistent with Pacific Air infiltrating the pattern and flow going more zonal again after the 20th. This type negative anomaly crashing into California is usually a very good indicator of this and what's allowing it is the Alaskan Ridge retrogression over to Siberia. Pacific Jet is about to start ramping up after the 20th according to almost all long range guidance, Negative AO stays intact but EPO/WPO is much more in doubt

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1707307200/1708344000-PSJhsJu5E20.png

There might be a window between 15th-20th the EPO is negative enough for a split flow weaker pac jet moment. That will be our best shot a winter storm.

Yep, that's the window as the jet cuts underneath into eastern pacific/popping Alaskan ridge but once it gets to coast, the Polar Jet gets cut off. Too early to tell for how long but we're getting into 8th-9th inning of winter in the south so not a lot of time to waste!!!

[orangeblood]

Not a good signal from the GEFS for winter weather during 18-20th south of Red River

[Stratton23]

GEPS favors central and west texas, EPS more widespread scross a good chunk of the state

[Cpv17]

The Ensembles have been very consistent with Pacific Air infiltrating the pattern and flow going more zonal again after the 20th. This type negative anomaly crashing into California is usually a very good indicator of this and what's allowing it is the Alaskan Ridge retrogression over to Siberia. Pacific Jet is about to start ramping up after the 20th according to almost all long range guidance, Negative AO stays intact but EPO/WPO is much more in doubt

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom/1707307200/1708344000-PSJhsJu5E20.png

There might be a window between 15th-20th the EPO is negative enough for a split flow weaker pac jet moment. That will be our best shot a winter storm.

Yep, that's the window as the jet cuts underneath into eastern pacific/popping Alaskan ridge but once it gets to coast, the Polar Jet gets cut off. Too early to tell for how long but we're getting into 8th-9th inning of winter in the south so not a lot of time to waste!!!

All we need is one good winter storm to satisfy most of us. It doesn’t really matter much what happens after that whether we stay cold or warm up.

[Brent]

Suddenly Sunday Night is looking very interesting here. The Euro has a widespread snowstorm

I mean I just need one good heavy wet snow and I'll be good with this winter

[Iceresistance]

Suddenly Sunday Night is looking very interesting here. The Euro has a widespread snowstorm

I mean I just need one good heavy wet snow and I'll be good with this winter

A lot of us threw in the towel earlier this week, but this is why we never give up! Because sleeper events like Super Bowl Sunday can happen!

[gpsnowman]

Suddenly Sunday Night is looking very interesting here. The Euro has a widespread snowstorm

I mean I just need one good heavy wet snow and I'll be good with this winter

A lot of us threw in the towel earlier this week, but this is why we never give up! Because sleeper events like Super Bowl Sunday can happen!

Looks like parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas might see a little surprise this weekend. My outdoor cooking looks to cancelled due to a solid chance of rain on Sunday.

[orangeblood]

GEPS favors central and west texas, EPS more widespread scross a good chunk of the state

Stratton23 love the enthusiasm and hope you have for winter weather but the signals don't look great...the EPS isn't widespread, it just has a couple of members out of 50 showing a decent storm!

[Stratton23]

Orangeblood its still ways out so plenty of time for positive trends, but I just hope we can get a fun event out of this before hells inferno like weather returns in a few months

[Ntxw]

At least the models are getting more agreement that post 15th we will develop a cold air mass in Canada with the raised heights over AK and poking into the Beaufort Sea. That's good, we'll just need to look for a delivery mechanism. Plenty of time to see what breaks out up there.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Models see an Oshtok low developing. Oshtok low will help increase heights over AK. Someone i follow on Twitter brought that to my attention years ago. Good indicator of potential cold coming down.

[Itryatgolf]

Models see an Oshtok low developing. Oshtok low will help increase heights over AK. Someone i follow on Twitter brought that to my attention years ago. Good indicator of potential cold coming down.

Was that anthony masiello? I think he mentioned that often

[Brent]

I will say a couple people up here are talking about a big pattern change and I don't think they are just referring to the borderline snow event Sunday night because we warm back up quickly then. There's definitely something else they are seeing

[Stratton23]

Very interesting run of the 00z Euro, blocking extending into the beauford sea, also looks like it brings the TPV down into central canada / at US border at the end of the run

[CaptinCrunch]

The way this Winter has gone I'm not counting out a March snow event.

[Ntxw]

Oklahoma and parts of Red River (WF) snowstorm later this weekend on NAM.

[Iceresistance]

KWTV has 2-4 inches of snow for my area, but the Euro and GFS are suggesting up to a foot.

[Iceresistance]

Oklahoma and parts of Red River (WF) snowstorm later this weekend on NAM.

This 12z NAM is gonna keep us guessing because the run ended just as it was getting crazy.

[bubba hotep]

Oklahoma and parts of Red River (WF) snowstorm later this weekend on NAM.

Good old fashioned clown maps run!

[Brent]

KWTV has 2-4 inches of snow for my area, but the Euro and GFS are suggesting up to a foot.

Really worried about temps here it's so warm

Just like January the EPS is more bullish than the GEFS though which is weird(it didn't pan out in January lol)

EPS mean is 4 inches GEFS is an inch

That NAM run is something else though