Texas Winter 2023-2024

[wxman57]

Does the rgem stop with the cold again? I’ve never seen this before on models but it’s starting to show up on all of them… it gets down to cuero area and backs up

The NAM 12KM and to a lesser extent the NAM 3KM does the same thing for me in Deep South Texas. It seems the cold runs out of steam on Sunday and than looks to get a secondary push come Monday.

I believe what you're seeing in south TX on Sunday is a very shallow layer of cold air "modifying-out" as it reaches you, not a computer glitch. The main cold shot will come down Monday afternoon/evening as the upper trof axis passes.

[rwfromkansas]

12Z Nam is super confusing. Completely different from the last couple runs? Almost dry everywhere.

Nevermind...it just is pushing the precip later I guess. So the 3k isn't picking it up.

Still, not liking the drying trend over NE TX.

[HockeyTx82]

Evan increasing talk of precip even as the models make me think now DFW will get screwed. He did have to get in a dig making fun of the Euro for going drier of course. His anti-"influencer" kick is really getting annoying.

I'm concerned this will be the pile-up situation in 2021 where we have basically nothing except a little tiny amount of precip that freezes in a few spots, so they will have school Tuesday and then there are wrecks.

We need a more powerful low than modeled to really squeeze out some sleet/snow. A dusting of sleet won't be enough to keep people home safe Monday/Tuesday.

Honestly, state should recommend school closures statewide to preserve the power grid.


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They should also cancel the Cowboys game, lots of electricity used to make that happen.

[Texas Snow]

12Z GFS (edit: also UKMET) still gives hope to DFW but Canadian and ICON not so much. Of course moving into mesoscale timeframe now.

[Ntxw]

For North Texas (into NE TX and Arkansas) 850mb front will be the focal point for lift in the cold air.

[bubba hotep]

NWS FTW mentioned the GFS was sniffing out another impulse Monday night with some lift, but until there is better consensus have left out precipitation for Monday night.

It's the 12k NAM, so be warned, but if those height rises off the EC move into the NE, then that energy coming down the back side might be able to dig enough.

[rwfromkansas]

Apparently if I want snow the one model I can use is the UKMET. Gives me 2 inches of snow from the 0z run. Also gives DFW more QPF than others. So, yeah. Not good to have to rely on this one model. Lol.

[Tammie]

For North Texas (into NE TX and Arkansas) 850mb front will be the focal point for lift in the cold air.

Can you explain this? Feel free to talk to me like I’m stupid…

[Texas Snow]

For North Texas (into NE TX and Arkansas) 850mb front will be the focal point for lift in the cold air.

Can you explain this? Feel free to talk to me like I’m stupid…

Think about it like you do a regular cold front that swings through, pushes up air, and causes precipitation. Above our heads there are cold fronts too, and that is what he is saying here.

[Ntxw]

For North Texas (into NE TX and Arkansas) 850mb front will be the focal point for lift in the cold air.

Can you explain this? Feel free to talk to me like I’m stupid…

Think about it like you do a regular cold front that swings through, pushes up air, and causes precipitation. Above our heads there are cold fronts too, and that is what he is saying here.

Indeed! Surface front and cold air will be well south, but above our heads several thousand feet up there is also a cold front that can be a point where lift occurs! In fact some of the highest QPF (Arkansas) will be along this front.

[funster]

Would feel better if he said we WILL have enough power. Tight Tues & Wed am for grid ahead.

 https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1745842953438785719

[rwfromkansas]

My hometown school was delayed 2 hours today due to drifting snow. Lol. They really didn't see any new snow.

This is really unusual. Even up there the snow usually melts immediately, but the roads are still awful even today.

[Harp.1]

This place got REAL quiet. Never a good thing! Lol!

[rwfromkansas]

Significant reduction on precip over DFW in 12z ICON. 12z UKMET reducing amounts NE TX but about the same for DFW.

I would say a definite downward trend unfortunately.

Edit to add that the Canadian is still decent, as well as the GFS mentioned earlier.

[Anti-freeze]

#TeamEvan

[Fifty Rock]

It's still early, You will have plenty of time for changes between now and Sunday for things to evolve. It won't take much precipitation to cause issues, especially with the temps expected and what does fall would cause issues thru Wednesday until it goes above freezing.

[bubba hotep]

Significant reduction on precip over DFW in 12z ICON. 12z UKMET reducing amounts NE TX but about the same for DFW.

I would say a definite downward trend unfortunately.

Edit to add that the Canadian is still decent, as well as the GFS mentioned earlier.

12z so far, we are hugging the RGEM, GFS, and UK!!!

[Brent]

My hometown school was delayed 2 hours today due to drifting snow. Lol. They really didn't see any new snow.

This is really unusual. Even up there the snow usually melts immediately, but the roads are still awful even today.

I saw school delays here and barely flakes and the roads were totally fine about sums up this winter here a big joke

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro, through 48hrs, maybe a little better overall orientation and digging a bit more into Cali.

[txtwister78]

12z Euro, through 48hrs, maybe a little better overall orientation and digging a bit more into Cali.

it's once again going into massive joke territory with surface temps though. No big surprise there.