Texas Winter 2023-2024

[gpsnowman]

I like the nuance from NWS FTW. Forecast a low of 21 for DFW on Monday but they also have a graphic map on their homepage that shows the probability of single digit lows (probably around 20%). Not going way out on a limb but informing that the forecast could get worse.

21 May be the high if we can even get there with strong CAA. But yeah 1/5 chance at this range is actually quite high given climo.

They also mention a 30-50% chance of a below freezing day on Monday. This could be a multi-day below freezing stretch.

[Ntxw]

Models are also trending towards hanging TPV around the lakes longer. That warming trend the second half the week will probably move in the direction of being muted. The pattern is blocked.

[Ntxw]

Cold swings back around for round 2 late next week on GFS.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Where’s my favorite Houston cyclist?

[Cpv17]

Boy oh boy, I’m loving this. Just need more moisture!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Can anyone remember a 15:1 Kuchera ratio south of I10

[Gotwood]

Cold swings back around for round 2 late next week on GFS.

Well I think it’s safe to say this one is going to surpass Dec of 22 especially in terms of longevity.

[Gotwood]

Cold swings back around for round 2 late next week on GFS.

Was reading the 2021 thread earlier today to see if I could identify any similarities and the re enforcement cold stands out.

[Ntxw]

Cold swings back around for round 2 late next week on GFS.

Was reading the 2021 thread earlier today to see if I could identify any similarities and the re enforcement cold stands out.

A lot of the severe deep arctic outbreaks works similar. When you work through analogs, the sustained events often include similar ingredients. What makes 1978, 2021 unique is the severe -AO/-NAO. It's all about what are you blocking. When the Pacific plays you get it.

The HP/500mb ridge when it showed up on the models over the Beaufort Sea about a week ago was a sign.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Cold swings back around for round 2 late next week on GFS.

Was reading the 2021 thread earlier today to see if I could identify any similarities and the re enforcement cold stands out.

A lot of the severe deep arctic outbreaks works similar. When you work through analogs, the sustained events often include similar ingredients. What makes 1978, 2021 unique is the severe -AO/-NAO. It's all about what are you blocking. When the Pacific plays you get it.

Starting to get a ‘83 vibe blended with an active 89/73/49 stormy pattern. Am I hallucinating?

[Ntxw]

Was reading the 2021 thread earlier today to see if I could identify any similarities and the re enforcement cold stands out.

A lot of the severe deep arctic outbreaks works similar. When you work through analogs, the sustained events often include similar ingredients. What makes 1978, 2021 unique is the severe -AO/-NAO. It's all about what are you blocking. When the Pacific plays you get it.

Starting to get a ‘83 vibe blended with an active 89/73/49 stormy pattern. Am I hallucinating?

We may go from the Arctic blocking right into the huge Pacific rex block.

[gpsnowman]

Cold swings back around for round 2 late next week on GFS.

Was reading the 2021 thread earlier today to see if I could identify any similarities and the re enforcement cold stands out.

A few pages back I mentioned I was getting 2021 vibes because of some similarities. One was the model run after model run of decreasing temps with the ICON and Canadian leading the way and the Euro /GFS playing catchup. I still dont think this will be as long in duration but its trying. What is not similar is the moisture situation. In 2021 it was clear fairly early a snowstorm would happen IIRC.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

A lot of the severe deep arctic outbreaks works similar. When you work through analogs, the sustained events often include similar ingredients. What makes 1978, 2021 unique is the severe -AO/-NAO. It's all about what are you blocking. When the Pacific plays you get it.

Starting to get a ‘83 vibe blended with an active 89/73/49 stormy pattern. Am I hallucinating?

We may go from the Arctic blocking right into the huge Pacific rex block.

Don’t recall a transition like that. Is there an analog for that?

[Gotwood]

Cold swings back around for round 2 late next week on GFS.

Was reading the 2021 thread earlier today to see if I could identify any similarities and the re enforcement cold stands out.

A few pages back I mentioned I was getting 2021 vibes because of some similarities. One was the model run after model run of decreasing temps with the ICON and Canadian leading the way and the Euro /GFS playing catchup. I still dont think this will be as long in duration but it’s trying. What is not similar is the moisture situation. In 2021 it was clear fairly early a snowstorm would happen IIRC.

Yeah I hate bringing it up. Not really comparing the two but I also don’t want to be unprepared. I appreciate everyone’s input and expertise.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Best I can compare it to is 1973, but ‘73 was a different delivery. Really just speaking to the 6 week period in late Winter then.

[gpsnowman]

Was reading the 2021 thread earlier today to see if I could identify any similarities and the re enforcement cold stands out.

A few pages back I mentioned I was getting 2021 vibes because of some similarities. One was the model run after model run of decreasing temps with the ICON and Canadian leading the way and the Euro /GFS playing catchup. I still dont think this will be as long in duration but it’s trying. What is not similar is the moisture situation. In 2021 it was clear fairly early a snowstorm would happen IIRC.

Yeah I hate bringing it up. Not really comparing the two but I also don’t want to be unprepared. I appreciate everyone’s input and expertise.

Oh I am in agreement with you. Sounds like the warmup after a couple days probably won't happen. Maybe not below freezing the entire time but not a stretch of 50s 60s either.

[Gotwood]

A few pages back I mentioned I was getting 2021 vibes because of some similarities. One was the model run after model run of decreasing temps with the ICON and Canadian leading the way and the Euro /GFS playing catchup. I still dont think this will be as long in duration but it’s trying. What is not similar is the moisture situation. In 2021 it was clear fairly early a snowstorm would happen IIRC.

Yeah I hate bringing it up. Not really comparing the two but I also don’t want to be unprepared. I appreciate everyone’s input and expertise.

Oh I am in agreement with you. Sounds like the warmup after a couple days probably won't happen. Maybe not below freezing the entire time but not a stretch of 50s 60s either.

Yeah I’m of the same opinion.

[Ntxw]

Starting to get a ‘83 vibe blended with an active 89/73/49 stormy pattern. Am I hallucinating?

We may go from the Arctic blocking right into the huge Pacific rex block.

Don’t recall a transition like that. Is there an analog for that?

Jan 66 and 73 still likely the best matches. There's no real good analog for the Bering/Alaskan rex block. They aren't common in El Nino, no less a strong one. MJO move is La Nina like.

[Ntxw]

Just to illustrate the oddity, of course the best modern El Nino we all remember is 2009/2010 for the snow. For the cold, the best stretch was early-mid January.

DFW

[Cpv17]

I wonder what happened in 1821. First I’ve heard of it was tonight.