Texas Winter 2023-2024

[South Texas Storms]

1.5" in my backyard this AM. That's a very impressive (and much needed) 3.75" since January 1st!

Wow, way more than expected, congrats! Most models had your area seeing up to 0.75 inch at most.

Yes sir! The last couple of systems have definitely overperformed just west of New Braunfels- a very welcome sight.

Yes indeed! 2 overperforming events in SA so far in the first week of 2024. Hopefully that continues all year!

[Edwards Limestone]

Simultaneous Tornado and Blizzard Warnings. Only in Texas!

Stay safe everyone.

[jasons2k]

At 2:17 a trained spotter reported a tornado on the ground in Coldspring.

[Tireman4]

Simultaneous Tornado and Blizzard Warnings. Only in Texas!

Stay safe everyone.

Well, you know our motto, " Texas: Its Like A Whole Other Country"

[txtwister78]

Simultaneous Tornado and Blizzard Warnings. Only in Texas!

Stay safe everyone.

Well, you know our motto, " Texas: Its Like A Whole Other Country"

Takes me back to those weather channel commercials when I was a kid. Lol.

[orangeblood]

That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.

No doubt, WPO going into the abysss....

[Itryatgolf]

That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.

No doubt, WPO going into the abysss....
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/wpo/box/1704715200-UpZGCwcN7YEgrb2.png

Is the epo similar?

[orangeblood]

IMO 10 plus below normal 10 day average is usually a good Severe Arctic outbreak benchmark! Ensembles are going that direction

[orangeblood]

That Pacific block is going to prevent any kind of major warm up. Thank goodness this is a January blast because at least you know there's plenty of winter left still. W-Can is still well below normal.

No doubt, WPO going into the abysss....
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/wpo/box/1704715200-UpZGCwcN7YEgrb2.png

Is the epo similar?

It's the most volatile, check out the ranges for the member EPO forecasts (some are off the chart negative). That's a big piece of this puzzle and a big reason why models are having fits pinning this down

[txtwister78]

Low level shear is insane across the Houston metro today. It's so high that perhaps (fingers crossed) it may be limiting those prefrontal storms from dropping tornadoes (ripping apart updrafts perhaps), but definitely not an "all clear" as more storms just out ahead of the front are moving east of SA toward Houston. Those definitely need to be watched in a few hours. Volatile environment for SE TX today. Definitely a day to follow local NWS office for folks in that region.

[Itryatgolf]

No doubt, WPO going into the abysss....
https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/wpo/box/1704715200-UpZGCwcN7YEgrb2.png

Is the epo similar?

It's the most volatile, check out the ranges for the member EPO forecasts (some are off the chart negative). That's a big piece of this puzzle and a big reason why models are having fits pinning this down

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1704715200-MCwPcyQzNfUgrb2.png

Typically the epo matches the wpo or very close to it.

[Portastorm]

Low level shear is insane across the Houston metro today. It's so high that perhaps (fingers crossed) it may be limiting those prefrontal storms from dropping tornadoes (ripping apart updrafts perhaps), but definitely not an "all clear" as more storms just out ahead of the front are moving east of SA toward Houston. Those definitely need to be watched in a few hours. Volatile environment for SE TX today. Definitely a day to follow local NWS office for folks in that region.

I would imagine the ride into IAH and Hobby today is rather ... bumpy.

[South Texas Storms]

Low level shear is insane across the Houston metro today. It's so high that perhaps (fingers crossed) it may be limiting those prefrontal storms from dropping tornadoes (ripping apart updrafts perhaps), but definitely not an "all clear" as more storms just out ahead of the front are moving east of SA toward Houston. Those definitely need to be watched in a few hours. Volatile environment for SE TX today. Definitely a day to follow local NWS office for folks in that region.

Yeah it looks and feels like a severe weather day in Houston. Warm, humid, windy, with clouds racing. Hopefully we dodge a bullet here today, but won't be safe until the front moves through in a few hours.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I got hail in Weimar

[rwfromkansas]

So, possibly good news for later if we have further south trends for future storms, but it looks like the trend for the snow today/tonight is actually bigger totals for KS and a pretty big jog south.

My hometown has been bumped up from 3 inches to 8-12. So, a significant increase...

Wish I still lived there on days like this.

[Ntxw]

Stay safe for those in SE Texas. Not clear until that line to the west moves through.

What we can no longer deny is the cold real. It's real, it's beginning to build over NW and W Canada.

[Ntxw]

Make no mistake, this is a severe arctic outbreak. 2021 spoiled us making years like 2011 and 2013/2014 seem "run of the mill" but they aren't. The numbers are showing at least that.

[Tireman4]

Stay safe for those in SE Texas. Not clear until that line to the west moves through.

What we can no longer deny is the cold real. It's real, it's beginning to build over NW and W Canada.

We ahall hold down the fort for you all! Windy. That low level jet is cooking at 50 to 60kts. My gracious

[HockeyTx82]

Make no mistake, this is a severe arctic outbreak. 2021 spoiled us making years like 2011 and 2013/2014 seem "run of the mill" but they aren't. The numbers are showing at least that.

https://i.imgur.com/1P8DhJG.png

https://i.imgur.com/NWBvky6.png

https://i.imgur.com/VlQaqHu.png

https://i.imgur.com/3L1HM3B.png

So then why are professionals balking at it? They don't want to eat crow?

It seems there are amateurs like us who are all in, some pros, are too, then there are TV mets.... meh

[Ntxw]

Make no mistake, this is a severe arctic outbreak. 2021 spoiled us making years like 2011 and 2013/2014 seem "run of the mill" but they aren't. The numbers are showing at least that.

https://i.imgur.com/1P8DhJG.png

https://i.imgur.com/NWBvky6.png

https://i.imgur.com/VlQaqHu.png

https://i.imgur.com/3L1HM3B.png

So then why are professionals balking at it? They don't want to eat crow?

It seems there are amateurs like us who are all in, some pros, are too, then there are TV mets.... meh

They will trend down each day until it's nearly impossible to be wrong, which then will be the right call no matter what.