Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Harp.1]

18z GFS….. drops the arctic bomb down the central plains

But dry…

Precipitation doesn’t matter past 3-4 days on the operationals. With the active pattern shown on the ensembles, I’m not too worried about precipitation being an issue. We need the cold air to get established first and foremost.

What you guys get in SE Texas, we in south Louisiana usually get the next day.

[Stratton23]

Harp.1 sometimes we will get snow and ice down here, it just depends largely on the timing of the cold air and if their is a system coming through, as for youre area, you have potential to see something frozen as well given the storm track is really far south, this big US continental trough could really make things exciting

[Cpv17]

But dry…

Precipitation doesn’t matter past 3-4 days on the operationals. With the active pattern shown on the ensembles, I’m not too worried about precipitation being an issue. We need the cold air to get established first and foremost.

What you guys get in SE Texas, we in south Louisiana usually get the next day.

What we really need for us this far south is a really deep upper level low that digs down deep into Mexico.

[wxman57]

I notice that today's 12Z GFS and Euro 500mb pattern at day 10 are very similar now. Canadian is slower with the upper low around the 8th. Euro has over a foot of snow along the Red River near Wichita Falls at day 10. GFS has much lighter snow and nothing into the DFW area. I wouldn't believe anything that far out.

I'm missing the nice, warm days of summer. Too cold to go outside now.

[Cpv17]

I notice that today's 12Z GFS and Euro 500mb pattern at day 10 are very similar now. Canadian is slower with the upper low around the 8th. Euro has over a foot of snow along the Red River near Wichita Falls at day 10. GFS has much lighter snow and nothing into the DFW area. I wouldn't believe anything that far out.

I'm missing the nice, warm days of summer. Too cold to go outside now.

And too hot to go outside then!

[txtwister78]

As mentioned before, first week of Jan is slightly below normal across Texas. Active sub-tropical jet with a few systems moving across but not a lot of cold to work with. I think the second system however is the one to watch late next week if you're looking for a little surprise light snow for northern portions of the state. Hopefully these bring some more rain to South Central Texas where we could still use some.

Once we get into early week 2 that's where things could get interesting. As others have mentioned ensembles are locked in with a huge trough developing that digs/buckles the jet and pulls in arctic air. Starts out west and then we step down as we look for cross polar flow pattern to develop. Not need to worry about precipitation yet but man the ensembles are definitely talking and at least look favorable for some fun and games across the southern plains as it stands right now. While this is still 12 days or so out, you can't ignore the fact that the ensembles have been fairly consistent for that time range over the last several runs. Should be a fun pattern to track over the next few days.

Hope everyone has a safe and happy New Year!

[Brent]

Definitely a signal up here at least next Friday Saturday before we get into the main event

[SnowintheFalls]

I notice that today's 12Z GFS and Euro 500mb pattern at day 10 are very similar now. Canadian is slower with the upper low around the 8th. Euro has over a foot of snow along the Red River near Wichita Falls at day 10. GFS has much lighter snow and nothing into the DFW area. I wouldn't believe anything that far out.

I'm missing the nice, warm days of summer. Too cold to go outside now.

Lock that Euro in! I choose to live in fantasy land for a bit at least. I am just glad we are at the time of winter to have fun model watching.

[Harp.1]

If you go by the operational GFS, you’d never know that big changes are supposed to happen.

[Stratton23]

And thats why you dont go by the operational run at this range, all that matters this range is the ensembles, and the 00z GEFS has a deeper and more slower US continental trough, the operational run is too progressive with moving the trough out, but it still unloads some arctic air into the nation, nothing has changed, everything looks good, you are going to drive yourself crazy if you go by each operational run of a model

[Cpv17]

If you go by the operational GFS, you’d never know that big changes are supposed to happen.

Yeah, that was a lame run. We’ll see what the 0z GEFS says here soon and then the Euro/EPS.

[Cpv17]

Definitely a signal up here at least next Friday Saturday before we get into the main event

I’d say you have a really good chance to see something up there over the next couple weeks.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 just looked at the 00z GEFS, its slower and deeper with the US trough, and colder than the 00z OP run, the OP run is way too progressive with things, GEFS looks better for aure

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 just looked at the 00z GEFS, its slower and deeper with the US trough, and colder than the 00z OP run, the OP run is way too progressive with things, GEFS looks better for aure

I didn’t look at the GEFS yet. I use Tropical Tidbits and it’s not finished running. I noticed that the operational run looked really progressive. It even has most of the rain east of us now.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 im on weatherbell so its finished before tropical tidbits, slightly different run times, but yeah the 00z GEFS is way slower with the trough compared to the op run, and its definitely colder, that op run is just off

[Cpv17]

Oof, the 0z Euro!

[gpsnowman]

Oof, the 0z Euro!

Is that a good oof or a bad oof?

[orangeblood]

Euro Ensembles starting to trend towards a winter storm next weekend across parts of Texas and southern Oklahoma. Euro Control is a I-20 special! GFS and Canadian ENS further north across I-40! Caution warranted though, it’s still really early in the forecast cycle but it appears to be the first big threat of the 23/24 Winter Season

[snownado]

While it's been too cold for my liking, I've loving all of the Sunshine.

This is normally a boring time of the year weather-wise, but the Sunny & Dry weather makes it so much easier to push through.

[CaptinCrunch]

Beautiful day, get out and enjoy your weekend!!

Winters Coming