Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

CMC has the system from yesterday along with another even further south system digging on its heals, the GFS is more progressive with this pattern,

The GFS is usually progressive with everything. That’s nothing new.

[Stratton23]

The EPS really likes the idea of some wintry mischief in the state over the next 10-12 days, its still pretty aggressive, looks like it has a deeper trough with that -NAO really slowing things down

[Itryatgolf]

The EPS really likes the idea of some wintry mischief in the state over the next 10-12 days, its still pretty aggressive, looks like it has a deeper trough with that -NAO really slowing things down

We will need great timing to see winter weather currently. We actually need to see a -epo or a -ao/nao to allow cold air to come down this way. That's why niños are backloaded for the most part like Ntxw alluded to

[Ntxw]

What we are seeing is retrogression of the huge blocking over the Atlantic. This is quite an anomalous feature, that will shift to Hudson Bay -> Central Canada -> Alaskan EPO region. It is the latter portion that will promote cold. All of the standard big El Nino blasts that go from mild December to cold Jan/Feb will have the blocking traverse north into the Arctic-sub-Arctic higher latitudes.



Constructive interference with the MJO.

[Stratton23]

Op GFS showing ridging starting to poke its head in alaksa at the end of the run, also has a cold blast at the end of december, we will see, but long range euro weeklies continue to advertise a pretty cold january, we will see about that as well

[Ntxw]

Signal for significantly favorable winter pattern is getting stronger. Turn of the calendar likely features -EPO and strong El Nino stj with Atlantic blocking. Golden trio.

[Stratton23]

Ntwx hopefully we can cash in big time with that setup!

[Ntxw]

Ntwx hopefully we can cash in big time with that setup!

It would be incredibly bad luck if no one in the southern plains cashed in on *potentially* good pattern. 500mb should be favorable. Wild card is, as always, we don't yet know the quality of cold air involved since we don't live at 500mb.

So far this winter, many of the forecasts and statistical/analogs painted the southern high plains (eastern NM, SE Colorado, Kansas, NW Oklahoma, and Panhandle of TX) as ground zero for this winter, so far they have seen most of the action.

[Stratton23]

12z Euro has a deepening trough with a pretty nice cool down at the end of its run

[Brent]

Ntwx hopefully we can cash in big time with that setup!

It would be incredibly bad luck if no one in the southern plains cashed in on *potentially* good pattern. 500mb should be favorable. Wild card is, as always, we don't yet know the quality of cold air involved since we don't live at 500mb.

So far this winter, many of the forecasts and statistical/analogs painted the southern high plains (eastern NM, SE Colorado, Kansas, NW Oklahoma, and Panhandle of TX) as ground zero for this winter, so far they have seen most of the action.

We will see so far Tulsa has only reported a half hour of snow a lot of people had real snow in December

[Cpv17]

Yeah, you can see the retrogression on the ensembles of the blocking slowly poking its way into the Yukon Territories and Alaska. The EPS has it happening faster than the GEFS.

[Iceresistance]

Yeah, you can see the retrogression on the ensembles of the blocking slowly poking its way into the Yukon Territories and Alaska. The EPS has it happening faster than the GEFS.

Also a massive -NAO block


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SiACY.png

[Stratton23]

Wow thats a pretty strong -NAO blocking signature, definitely an intriguing pattern ahead

[starsfan65]

Wow thats a pretty strong -NAO blocking signature, definitely an intriguing pattern ahead

I hope it is a sign of good things to come.

[Stratton23]

man the 00z EPS control run is quite something lol

[Tammie]

man the 00z EPS control run is quite something lol

Care to elaborate on this for us more weather challenged please?

[Yukon Cornelius]

60s on Christmas. No thanks.

[orangeblood]

Signal for significantly favorable winter pattern is getting stronger. Turn of the calendar likely features -EPO and strong El Nino stj with Atlantic blocking. Golden trio.

Latest few runs of CFSv2 going all-in on Major Cold outbreak into lower 48 weeks 3-4...The Mean is going towards a top 5 cold January


30 day temp forecast/Entire month of January


Control is even more extreme, has a 10 day stretch mid-month that would rival Feb 2021


Lets see if tonight's Euro weeklies starting back this trend up....

[Ntxw]

Signal for significantly favorable winter pattern is getting stronger. Turn of the calendar likely features -EPO and strong El Nino stj with Atlantic blocking. Golden trio.

Latest few runs of CFSv2 going all-in on Major Cold outbreak into lower 48 weeks 3-4...The Mean is going towards a top 5 cold January
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_7day/1702879200/1705104000-YkhDtMt9nO0.png

30 day temp forecast/Entire month of January
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-avg/conus/t2m_f_anom_30day/1702879200/1706745600-hs5sgJF7bBE.png

Control is even more extreme, has a 10 day stretch mid-month that would rival Feb 2021
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cfs-daily-all-c00/conus/t2m_f_anom_10day/1702879200/1705795200-0z8o9reB9E8.png

Lets see if tonight's Euro weeklies starting back this trend up....

I think we see our first snow chance the first week of Jan.

[Ntxw]

Also the system rolling in next week is potent. It doesn't have true cold air but will be a sign of much slower flow.