Texas Winter 2023-2024

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#381 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 15, 2023 1:34 pm

Harp.1 wrote:The GFS absolutely stinks!! Nothing.


Looks great to me! Gives me nearly 6” of rain which is really all I care about right now. Colder temps will come later. I’m not too worried about that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#382 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 15, 2023 1:36 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Harp.1 wrote:The GFS absolutely stinks!! Nothing.


All in on Canadian.


GFS looks better for me! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#383 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 15, 2023 2:14 pm

Alright Euro joins the Canadian Christmas (almost) miracle. Lets trend that baby south!!! 240 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#384 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 15, 2023 2:43 pm

I love the 500 mb height setup on the 12z EPS, now thays a recipe for a classic southern slider! Deep trough
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#385 Postby orangeblood » Fri Dec 15, 2023 2:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:Alright Euro joins the Canadian Christmas (almost) miracle. Lets trend that baby south!!! 240 hours.


With a 3 sigma plus downstream Anomaly in the Northern Atlantic slowing everything up, stronger/further south ULL should be on the table

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#386 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:08 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Alright Euro joins the Canadian Christmas (almost) miracle. Lets trend that baby south!!! 240 hours.


With a 3 sigma plus downstream Anomaly in the Northern Atlantic slowing everything up, stronger/further south ULL should be on the table

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/namer/z500_norm_anom/1702641600/1703062800-uNqHBGpQMJk.png


Also factor this as well, we could have something for Christmas indeed!

Image
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SirHf.png

Moisture? Oh yes we do! :ggreen:
Image
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SirHY.png

Just trend the cold and HP south, and I think we're good to go
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#387 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:30 pm

There is a lot of snow in Kansas on the Euro Christmas Day :spam:

Can we get a better trend this time
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#388 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:43 pm

Brent wrote:There is a lot of snow in Kansas on the Euro Christmas Day :spam:

Can we get a better trend this time


At least we have something on the table. As orangeblood alluded to there is blocking upstream. Even if it's not wintry, prospect of a system will at least prevent a Christmas heatwave.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#389 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 15, 2023 3:53 pm

thats a pretty bullish EPS signal for snow, we will see about that
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#390 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 15, 2023 4:20 pm

Stratton23 wrote:thats a pretty bullish EPS signal for snow, we will see about that


Do you have an image or a link?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#391 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Dec 15, 2023 4:29 pm

Hopefully something's going on. We seriously need a consistent soaking.

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Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#392 Postby Stratton23 » Fri Dec 15, 2023 4:29 pm

Iceresistance im not sure how to post pics on here, ive tried through my phone and it doesnt work, i use weatherbell for looking at models
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#393 Postby JayDT » Fri Dec 15, 2023 4:41 pm

Well i’m definitely a bit excited again… :lol: A Christmas miracle for DFW would be great, but at the very least it also makes a “heatwave” unlikely.. I personally hate when the holidays are warm and sunny
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#394 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Dec 15, 2023 4:46 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Iceresistance im not sure how to post pics on here, ive tried through my phone and it doesnt work, i use weatherbell for looking at models


Maybe save the image and upload it to a site like Gifyu to prevent hotlinking?
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#395 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 15, 2023 7:36 pm

About as El Nino as you can get.

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#396 Postby Harp.1 » Fri Dec 15, 2023 7:54 pm

Ntxw wrote:About as El Nino as you can get.

https://i.imgur.com/J1hKDFZ.gif

Yeah, nobody wants to see this at Christmas time. ☹️☹️
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#397 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Dec 15, 2023 9:33 pm

Harp.1 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:About as El Nino as you can get.

https://i.imgur.com/J1hKDFZ.gif

Yeah, nobody wants to see this at Christmas time. ☹️☹️


It’s not that bad. Has average to below average temps with a lot of precipitation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#398 Postby Brent » Fri Dec 15, 2023 9:38 pm

Well everyone up here has written off a White Christmas but at least it looks unsettled. Things can change in 9 days but regardless it looks way better than some recent years minus last year
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Texas Winter 2023-2024

#399 Postby jasons2k » Fri Dec 15, 2023 10:42 pm

I installed a Davis Vantage Vue today. Here is the link if you are interested:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTXSPRIN1596

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#400 Postby Stratton23 » Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:06 pm

CMC has the system from yesterday along with another even further south system digging on its heals, the GFS is more progressive with this pattern,
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