Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Ntxw]

There is now a pretty good consensus between the long range guidance we will be in the true El Nino winter pattern. Blocked heights over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) and low heights across the southern US.

The big question is, what cold air is available? Won't be any shortage of powerful systems in that type of pattern.

[Stratton23]

even for ensembles thats remarkable agreement! makes me more confident on a pattern change

[Ntxw]

It's also important to raise heights over AK with the low pressure sneaking underneath. Doesn't have to be crazy high or anything but enough to bring some cross polar flow.

[Cpv17]

There is now a pretty good consensus between the long range guidance we will be in the true El Nino winter pattern. Blocked heights over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) and low heights across the southern US.

The big question is, what cold air is available? Won't be any shortage of powerful systems in that type of pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/yOWKjNR.png

https://i.imgur.com/41wzvPm.png

https://i.imgur.com/08rCQKC.png

Cosgrove is saying it won’t get cold till the second half of January and into February, FWIW.

[Ntxw]

There is now a pretty good consensus between the long range guidance we will be in the true El Nino winter pattern. Blocked heights over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) and low heights across the southern US.

The big question is, what cold air is available? Won't be any shortage of powerful systems in that type of pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/yOWKjNR.png

https://i.imgur.com/41wzvPm.png

https://i.imgur.com/08rCQKC.png

Cosgrove is saying it won’t get cold till the second half of January and into February, FWIW.

I agree with him that will likely be the coldest period of the winter. Usually the case for El Ninos and how the forcing is progressing. Would be nice to sneak in some marginal events before then and cash in earlier.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

There is now a pretty good consensus between the long range guidance we will be in the true El Nino winter pattern. Blocked heights over Hudson Bay (west -NAO) and low heights across the southern US.

The big question is, what cold air is available? Won't be any shortage of powerful systems in that type of pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/yOWKjNR.png

https://i.imgur.com/41wzvPm.png

https://i.imgur.com/08rCQKC.png

Cosgrove is saying it won’t get cold till the second half of January and into February, FWIW.

I agree with him that will likely be the coldest period of the winter. Usually the case for El Ninos and how the forcing is progressing. Would be nice to sneak in some marginal events before then and cash in earlier.

Agree with the coldest period but the week after Christmas through 2nd week of January doesn’t look warm, at all.

[Stratton23]

Im liking this 00z gfs, colder for christmas

[Brent]

Im liking this 00z gfs, colder for christmas

That seems to be matching the TV station here so far

[WacoWx]

SEE! We just needed something to talk about!

Stratton, what is your location again?

[Ralph's Weather]

My family place in NM is forward to get 2 feet of snow with this storm.

[bubba hotep]

My family place in NM is forward to get 2 feet of snow with this storm.

Canadian brings another big storm in after this one.

[Stratton23]

WacoWx im in College Station

[WacoWx]

Thanks!

[jasons2k]

Not to diss Cosgrove, but I wouldn’t say it’s going out on a limb to say the coldest part of the winter will probably occur during the end of January/beginning of February…

That’s like saying it’s going to get real hot in August. Come on…

[bubba hotep]

Now, this is the look that I've been waiting for: 1st storm moving out of the NE, 2nd storm moving into Texas, 3rd storm moving into Cali, and 4th storm waiting to drop in from the Gulf of Alaska!

[South Texas Storms]

Now, this is the look that I've been waiting for: 1st storm moving out of the NE, 2nd storm moving into Texas, 3rd storm moving into Cali, and 4th storm waiting to drop in from the Gulf of Alaska!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023121312/gem_z500_vort_namer_41.png

And how about the look on the 12z extended GFS run? Trough constantly reloads over Mexico and the SW US. Now that's my kind of fantasy!

[Stratton23]

I like that fantasy GFS run as well, arctic blast at the end, this pattern spells potential but im not going to get excited just yet

[Edwards Limestone]

Now, this is the look that I've been waiting for: 1st storm moving out of the NE, 2nd storm moving into Texas, 3rd storm moving into Cali, and 4th storm waiting to drop in from the Gulf of Alaska!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023121312/gem_z500_vort_namer_41.png

Look at those bowling balls!

[Itryatgolf]

I like that fantasy GFS run as well, arctic blast at the end, this pattern spells potential but im not going to get excited just yet

It's good to pay attention to the ensembles all around until 5-7 days for more accuracy imo.

[Itryatgolf]

Not to diss Cosgrove, but I wouldn’t say it’s going out on a limb to say the coldest part of the winter will probably occur during the end of January/beginning of February…

That’s like saying it’s going to get real hot in August. Come on…

LC has been doing weather for a long time. He knows his stuff. He does remind me of JB with his hype at times. I know he has to get clients and most people like cold and snow, but sometimes you just have to be honest with people about patterns. Imo, I still believe we got a ways to go, especially if the mjo goes back again into the warm phases (4-6). I'm hoping it will get into the colder phases sooner rather than later