Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Iceresistance]

Isn't most El Nino Winters backloaded?

1976-1977 is an infamous example, there was little snow for most of the CONUS, then all Arctic air came screaming in and the snow wouldn't stop.

[snowballzzz]

Just something to talk abt would be nice.

The long range models (CFS) is showing some decent cold air moving across the country and down into the southern plains/Texas the first week on January. Until then, it looks to be average and at least we should have a cloudy, seasonable Christmas day rather than sun an 80s. It just doesn't feel like Christmas when the sun is beaming down in 80 degree weather.

[orangeblood]

According to Joe Bastardi, cold will eventually get here…
https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/173 ... J0be-HnN-w

Latest Euro Weeklies backing up long range JMA as well with potent -EPO/-AO regime setting up in January. Still early but we are due for a memorable January, it's been way too long!!!

[Iceresistance]

According to Joe Bastardi, cold will eventually get here…
https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/173 ... J0be-HnN-w

Latest Euro Weeklies backing up long range JMA as well with potent -EPO/-AO regime setting up in January. Still early but we are due for a memorable January, it's been way too long!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-weeklies-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_7day/1702252800/1705190400-doWvLN5QU9c.png

This actually looks like a smiley face

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Late week storm system to bring widespread rains and gusty winds to the area.

Cold surface high pressure is slowly moving eastward and this will allow easterly winds to develop over the area. As low pressure develops over the Gulf of Mexico into Wednesday this easterly fetch will increase with inland winds running 15-20mph and coastal winds 20-30mph into Thursday. Moisture will be slow to return to much of the area and focus across south Texas into the TX Hill Country and on into NW TX through Wednesday before starting o spread slowly eastward Thursday and Friday.

Upper level storm system over the SW US will slowly move into TX and then track SE off the upper TX coast on Saturday. Widespread lift and rains will develop on Friday into Friday night with some heavy rainfall possible. Overall global guidance has become a bit more progressive with this system and ends much of the rainfall early Saturday with just a few showers lingering into midday Saturday.

Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible with isolated higher totals closer to the coast. Not expecting widespread thunderstorms with very weak instability and this should keep rainfall rates on the lower end.

Marine:
Winds increase today from the east and will remain strong through the end of the week. Winds build to near 30-35kts on Thursday and Friday with seas building into the 6-10 ft range. Easterly fetch is favorable for elevated tides along the upper TX coast and ETSS is showing tides nearing 3.0ft above MLLW (barnacle level) Thursday into Friday. While this is generally below coastal flooding thresholds, the added large wave action may result in run-up and minor coastal flooding at the usual low spots Thursday into Friday. Strong northerly winds developing Saturday behind the departing low will end any coastal flooding threat.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[rwfromkansas]

WPC seems to be cutting off totals more aggressively now in far eastern DFW.

Ugh. This is why I am not getting excited until Thursday for rain. We have had too many events that evaporated right before the rain was supposed to start this year.

[bubba hotep]

WPC seems to be cutting off totals more aggressively now in far eastern DFW.

Ugh. This is why I am not getting excited until Thursday for rain. We have had too many events that evaporated right before the rain was supposed to start this year.

The 12z NAM and RGEM look good, but the rain falls out beyond hour 60, so that could be suspect. However, the NAM has been pretty stingy with rainfall out beyond 60hrs here lately, so I take the 12z run today as a good sign.

[TropicalTundra]

NAM going ham on the panhandles for Thursday. Would definitely need a warning by the NWS if that were to happen.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

According to Joe Bastardi, cold will eventually get here…
https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/173 ... J0be-HnN-w

Latest Euro Weeklies backing up long range JMA as well with potent -EPO/-AO regime setting up in January. Still early but we are due for a memorable January, it's been way too long!!!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-weeklies-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_7day/1702252800/1705190400-doWvLN5QU9c.png

I came to post that the ensembles look promising starting right after Christmas. Timing is right after a massive +MT event in the Asia/Pacific

[TeamPlayersBlue]

NAM going ham on the panhandles for Thursday. Would definitely need a warning by the NWS if that were to happen.

That cut off low has been all over the Desert SW for a week now. Going to be tough to forecast, but i expect very heavy snow in the Amarillo region.

It was forecast to be much further south, but now I'm expected to get some flakes in Denver from the storm.

One thing I've learned from being up here.... The models really really struggle with the Rocky Mountains. The models dont understand exactly what the geography looks like, so it's tough to predict where the surface low develops east of the Rockies. This is arguably the most important factor when forecasting snow.

[Stratton23]

orangeblood love the smiley face look on that graph lol

[South Texas Storms]

Likely setting up to be another disappointing rain event across the southern half of Texas. Models a few days ago had a broad swath of 1-3 inches along and south of IH-10. Now the track of the upper low has shifted north, taking the heaviest rain with it. Just can't catch a break with rain where the worst drought in the state is...

[Harp.1]

I just reregistered to join this forum again. I’m in south Louisiana. Am I reading that things are starting to look better after the first of the year? Thanks.

[Itryatgolf]

I just reregistered to join this forum again. I’m in south Louisiana. Am I reading that things are starting to look better after the first of the year? Thanks.

Where you been? We have missed you lol. We are hoping it gets more exciting for colder stormier weather but it's way to early to know anything. The departures up north will be outrageous by end of December

[Stratton23]

Looks like a pattern shift is showing up in the globals, especially the GFS and CMC after day 10

[Harp.1]

Looks like a pattern shift is showing up in the globals, especially the GFS and CMC after day 10

Can you explain?

[Stratton23]

Now im no expert, but The change that has been brought up by cosgrove and other meteorologists is showing up in global guidance now, basically what the globals are showing is that the persistent positive PNA is finally going to begin to weaken somewhat and a storm system around christmas or so is showing up in model guidance, basically that system marks the start of a big shift in the pattern , thus allowing for potentially more storm systems to dig a bit further south which could give us better shots with rain and maybe cooler air as well, and while I dont see any big cold blast during this pattern change, I do feel as it could be the precursor to a much large change in January that could lead to colder conditions across much of the deep south, seeing a subtle hint of ridging trying to build over alaska at the end of its run

[Brent]

Hmmm check out Christmas Day

[Stratton23]

Brent yeah definitely could be chilly up in you’re neck of the woods lol, but I definitely think that storm system is going to be the kick starter of a much larger/ significant pattern change across NA

[starsfan65]

Brent yeah definitely could be chilly up in you’re neck of the woods lol, but I definitely think that storm system is going to be the kick starter of a much larger/ significant pattern change across NA

What storm system?