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bubba hotep wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:Year after year? Yeah idk either.
Teleconnections are now showing to be a +AO/+NAO/+PNA in a week or so.
Torch disaster incoming...
Looks like 60's in DFW for Christmas
However, it could be worse, the Northern Plains will straight torching
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GBBX6QbWAAAqxB-?format=jpg&name=small
Stratton23 wrote:Yeah its about to get worse, those are not the teleconnections you want to see lining up, I could see highs in the 70’s maybe even near 80 with this kind of a pattern, christmas is going to suck this year weather wise, we arent getting cold anytime soon until the MJO moves out of phase 6 and that stubborn Aleutian low starts to weaken significantly
Stratton23 wrote:I hope it does relax, what has been causing this pacific jet to be so persistent?
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Some of you are focusing on one or two variables.
Afternoon runs have us in the low to mid 50s Christmas Day with lows in the 30s and 40s.
Yeah it’s still a bit out but y’all forget this pattern also brings cloudiness and it’s persistent with steady moisture for the next two weeks.
That doesn’t scream torch at all. It certainly doesn’t bring cold air but not really anything way above normal either. It’s a few below to few above type situation depending on the day.
bubba hotep wrote:ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Some of you are focusing on one or two variables.
Afternoon runs have us in the low to mid 50s Christmas Day with lows in the 30s and 40s.
Yeah it’s still a bit out but y’all forget this pattern also brings cloudiness and it’s persistent with steady moisture for the next two weeks.
That doesn’t scream torch at all. It certainly doesn’t bring cold air but not really anything way above normal either. It’s a few below to few above type situation depending on the day.
Yeah, but most people view winter wx through the lens of "winter wx," and that certainly skews things. Of course, upper 50s - low 60s is pretty seasonal for Christmas; it's just not overly interesting. If the 12z Euro pans out, then that will generate a lot of chatter b/c it's a big rain event that will impact many posters on here. In the end, this isn't generating much traffic or positive posts in this thread for Christmas
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2023121012/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png
However, I do think things will change in January per a typical Nino winter or we will be left with another season that really didn't go to plan b/c of the overall background warmth in the Pacific.
Cpv17 wrote:It’s hard to get any significant cold during an El Niño. Just have to depend on a deep bowling bowl to pull down some cold air.
Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:It’s hard to get any significant cold during an El Niño. Just have to depend on a deep bowling bowl to pull down some cold air.
Yeah I mean look at Kansas a couple weeks ago. It wasnt remotely cold there either and some places had more snow than the entire winter last year lol. We've still got a lot of winter to go for sure
Brent, typically niños are backloaded so I guess we got that going for us. I know most of us need rain, but I would like to get my avg snow this winter, which isn't much anyways. Would like the forum to see a decent winter storm so we can have someone talk sbout
Tbh other than last year I haven't seen any snow in December in a long time anyway
Itryatgolf wrote:Brent wrote:Cpv17 wrote:It’s hard to get any significant cold during an El Niño. Just have to depend on a deep bowling bowl to pull down some cold air.
Yeah I mean look at Kansas a couple weeks ago. It wasnt remotely cold there either and some places had more snow than the entire winter last year lol. We've still got a lot of winter to go for sure
Brent, typically niños are backloaded so I guess we got that going for us. I know most of us need rain, but I would like to get my avg snow this winter, which isn't much anyways. Would like the forum to see a decent winter storm so we can have someone talk sbout
Tbh other than last year I haven't seen any snow in December in a long time anyway
Brent, typically niños are backloaded so I guess we got that going for us. I know most of us need rain, but I would like to get my avg snow this winter, which isn't much anyways. Would like the forum to see a decent winter storm so we can have someone talk about
bubba hotep wrote:Stratton23 wrote:Yeah its about to get worse, those are not the teleconnections you want to see lining up, I could see highs in the 70’s maybe even near 80 with this kind of a pattern, christmas is going to suck this year weather wise, we arent getting cold anytime soon until the MJO moves out of phase 6 and that stubborn Aleutian low starts to weaken significantly
The Pacific Jet should relax, allowing for the pattern to break down before we get that warm (depending on where you are located in the Southern Plains). January looks cooler for the Southern Plains as the torch over Western Canada backs off to allow for nearly seasonal temps, which allow for colder air to slide south. Also, it should be wetter with an active subtropical jet. Winter wx chances should increase for January, but this is pretty typical Nino climo.
rwfromkansas wrote:Larry Cosgrove says some pattern change will happen around or after Christmas eve, with more moisture and cold. But, it won't really be big winter until after the January thaw, so it sounds like he is going for a bigger Jan. 20-February cold and snowy period.
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