Florida Weather
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Re: Florida Weather
Tomorrow around here we get what I call the "Flagstaff effect" as a cold night rebounds to a very warm day to start a warming trend. We should see close to a 30 degree jump from the chilly morning low to the afternoon high. These are some of my favorite days during the cold season. Warm & humid by the weekend...could see some sea fog over the northeast gulf as high dewpoint air advects over what are now cold shelf waters.
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Re: Florida Weather
psyclone wrote:Tomorrow around here we get what I call the "Flagstaff effect" as a cold night rebounds to a very warm day to start a warming trend. We should see close to a 30 degree jump from the chilly morning low to the afternoon high. These are some of my favorite days during the cold season. Warm & humid by the weekend...could see some sea fog over the northeast gulf as high dewpoint air advects over what are now cold shelf waters.
That's a solid analysis. Just to add to that, the high pressure that was centered over much of northern Florida that was advecting the cold, continental air will be moving offshore the Atlantic later tomorrow. This will cause onshore flow from the (still relatively) warm GOM like you stated:
On top of that, the jet stream will start to lift north by Friday (and fracture, with some interaction from the left exit region of the southern streak and the right entrance of the northern streak):
This will allow for significant precipitable water amounts (for this time of year anyways) to be present along the gulf coast starting on Friday-Sunday. It won't take much instability to get heavy training of rain bands or some thunderstorms forming:
Climatology of precipitable water in Tallahassee (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimov2/):
This has led to a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms in SPC outlook:
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: Florida Weather
psyclone wrote:Tomorrow around here we get what I call the "Flagstaff effect" as a cold night rebounds to a very warm day to start a warming trend. We should see close to a 30 degree jump from the chilly morning low to the afternoon high. These are some of my favorite days during the cold season. Warm & humid by the weekend...could see some sea fog over the northeast gulf as high dewpoint air advects over what are now cold shelf waters.
Looks like the low in Tampa only made it down to 51 so we'll have to settle for a 25-degree jump today
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Yes I remember those sea fog days when I lived in Pinellas County. Sometimes that fog could get thick. Looks like we are back to a summer-like pattern this weekend with higher humidity, above normal temps, and SE wind flow along with some coastal Atlantic showers. Then another front swings through later this week bringing back below normal temps for a couple of days.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Florida Weather
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Florida Weather
Iceresistance wrote:We may have a major problem for Jacksonville, FL
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Si2UA.png
https://s5.gifyu.com/images/Si2UA.png
(Aware of the self-reply)
No tornado touched down over Jacksonville
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Looks like next weekend, the GFS and Euro show another El Niño low forming in the Gulf and moving NE across the FL peninsula. The weather could get quite interesting, stay tuned.
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Re: Florida Weather
WPC already giving metro se FL 3-5"+ on their 7 day map. Parched west central coast still bullseye screw zone. Interesting weather looks likely for someone...
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Re: Florida Weather
Looks similiar to the last event but more progressive.psyclone wrote:WPC already giving metro se FL 3-5"+ on their 7 day map. Parched west central coast still bullseye screw zone. Interesting weather looks likely for someone...
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Re: Florida Weather
Strong line of storms is moving toward the nature coast and tampa bay area from the gulf. I'm excited to hear some thunder and get a an actual legit downpour! Let it rip!
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Re: Florida Weather
It looks like we are in for almost the same rain event we had back in the middle of November with up to 5” of rain and winds gusting up to 45 to 50 mph.
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Re: Florida Weather
El nino action, feels like there is a windchill this afternoon.boca wrote:It looks like we are in for almost the same rain event we had back in the middle of November with up to 5” of rain and winds gusting up to 45 to 50 mph.
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Re: Florida Weather
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Interesting model runs indeed, some posts also in the FL weather thread on this potential El Niño storm: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... tart=17460
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Re: Florida Weather
gatorcane wrote:Interesting model runs indeed, some posts also in the FL weather thread on this potential El Niño storm: https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... tart=17460
Yeah, seems like a possibility.
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
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Re: Florida Weather
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
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