Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Cpv17]

Shhiiii, just give me some damn rain for now and I’ll be happy lol

[HockeyTx82]

Well that doesn't happen every day........

https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2023 ... -utc-2-2-3

Or maybe it does.... The news had it on this morning.

Maybe it's a sign we are going to get snow.

We do need to stop drilling for oil. If we take it all out of the ground the planet's natural lubrication will be gone and we will get more earthquakes.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well that doesn't happen every day........

https://earthquaketrack.com/quakes/2023 ... -utc-2-2-3

Or maybe it does.... The news had it on this morning.

Maybe it's a sign we are going to get snow.

We do need to stop drilling for oil. If we take it all out of the ground the planet's natural lubrication will be gone and we will get more earthquakes.

I generally agree with the sentiment, but the cause of earthquakes in this context is more likely to be extra lubrication as opposed to reduced lubrication. It’s possible that injection of fracturing fluid can cause very small earthquakes if it hits some kind of fault line, but the more notable earthquakes associated with the operation tend to be from wastewater disposal, which can be injected 5-10x deeper below ground. If that wastewater finds a fault at that depth, it can produce more slippage, and since the US central plains are effectively a failed rift valley, there is a tendency for earthquakes like this to occur.

[bubba hotep]

Record High Watch for DFW today. Record is 80F w/ FWD going with a forecast of 78F.

[orangeblood]

The current state of the early winter pattern in one chart....

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Strong cold front will move across the area Saturday afternoon and evening.

Southerly flow overnight has helped to begin the return of moisture to the region and with that the low clouds, drizzle, and light rain this morning. This activity should continue through mid morning with scattered showers evolving into the early afternoon hours mainly south of I-10 as a weak disturbance moves overhead in the southwest flow aloft.

An upper level storm system currently over the Rockies will eject into the plains with surface low pressure forming in New Mexico later today and moving toward the Great Lakes by Sunday. This surface low will sweep a strong cold front across Texas on Saturday. While moisture profiles will be plentiful ahead of this front, 850mb winds turn southwest and a strong aping inversion develops tonight over the area and will linger into Saturday. With abundant low clouds in place on Saturday only modest heating into the upper 70’s is expected, and this will likely fall short of enough heating to break through the capping inversion and generally prevent much in the way of active weather. Lift along with incoming front should be enough to get a line of showers and thunderstorms going with the greatest and most intense activity to the northeast of Houston around Lake Livingston and likely just a think line of showers around Matagorda Bay where capping will be greatest. While SPC has parts of the area outlooked for a severe risk on Saturday, think the severe threat will be more into Louisiana and the ARKLATX area.

Bigger news is the sharp drop in temperatures with the front and onset of strong northerly winds Saturday evening. Front will arrive across the Brazos Valley in the early to mid afternoon and clear the coast by early to mid evening. Temperatures in the 70’s will fall into the 50’s behind the front and then into the 40’s by Sunday morning with gusty northerly winds of 15-25mph and gust up to 35-40mph Saturday night. Compared to today and Saturday…Saturday night and Sunday will feel like winter.

Temperatures will only warm into the 50’s on Sunday even with mostly clear skies.

Next item is low temperatures on Monday AM…current guidance suggests a light freeze for areas along and north of US 59 away from the urban areas. With clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints will have to watch how temperature guidance trends over the next 24-48 hours as low 30’s down toward the US 59 corridor and south of there in the usual cold spots is looking at least possible.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Ntxw]

The current state of the early winter pattern in one chart....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GA1G4vDXYAAei1j?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

El Nino or La Nina we just can't shake off early December warmth. DFW has not had an official below normal December since 2013.

[TropicalTundra]

All I know is the panhandles might cash in on some snow tomorrow. Looking forward to high-res tonight.

[Iceresistance]

The current state of the early winter pattern in one chart....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GA1G4vDXYAAei1j?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Russia is taking the pounding of the cold! Good grief!

[Iceresistance]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/uXLHHCkI6YU[/youtube]

If he says it's coming, then it might be coming!

[rwfromkansas]

https://youtu.be/uXLHHCkI6YU

If he says it's coming, then it might be coming!

That's POW's MO and I like the guy. He will just put out another video ignoring the fact his first one failed if the forecast changes.

[Iceresistance]

Now this is a Big SSW for sure!

Cold by Christmas or New Years?


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SimMF.png

[Stratton23]

Teleconnections are starting to line up, im banking on a pretty cold end to the month, NAO goes negative and stays negative for a while

[Cpv17]

Teleconnections are starting to line up, im banking on a pretty cold end to the month, NAO goes negative and stays negative for a while

Yeah, but I’m worried the PNA will go too far positive and we’ll just get a glancing blow. The PNA is my only concern right now regarding the cold.

[Itryatgolf]

Like I mentioned a few days ago, we got a ways to go before the pattern gets more favorable and that will depend on the mjo progression. The SSW is interesting, but it has to propagate and then no guarantees it comes here whenever it develops. All speculation but I do hope we have a few weeks of solid cold enough for winter precipitation. I think from everyone I've spoken to niños are backloaded I guess

[Stratton23]

I will say i do not like that ensembles show a strong + PNA as we progress towards this “ potential weather pattern channel” during new years week, we will see

[Ntxw]

Like I mentioned a few days ago, we got a ways to go before the pattern gets more favorable and that will depend on the mjo progression. The SSW is interesting, but it has to propagate and then no guarantees it comes here whenever it develops. All speculation but I do hope we have a few weeks of solid cold enough for winter precipitation. I think from everyone I've spoken to niños are backloaded I guess

I wouldn't count on an SSW to effect us meaningfully until mid to late January. Long range model hints at deeper Aleutian-GOA trough which is precursor wave 1 to further implicate the strat PV but that's after it occurs. PV is already in a weakened state, so we can expect more periods of -AO. This period of -AO dislodged over in Asia and we haven't benefited from it.

[Edwards Limestone]

Well that doesn't happen every day........

We do need to stop drilling for oil. If we take it all out of the ground the planet's natural lubrication will be gone and we will get more earthquakes.

I'm a 10 yr geologist in the O&G industry w/ a MS in Petroleum Geology- no offense but this doesn't make any sense.

What's causing the earthquakes? Hard to say, but most likely injection of produced water in "salt water disposal" wells that is pressuring up faults, etc.

Either way, statements like this don't belong here. Pure pseudoscience, again no offense.

[Brent]

Teleconnections are starting to line up, im banking on a pretty cold end to the month, NAO goes negative and stays negative for a while

Yeah, but I’m worried the PNA will go too far positive and we’ll just get a glancing blow. The PNA is my only concern right now regarding the cold.

This right here and that's why it's not even raining either. We need a fundamental pattern change

[Texas Snowman]

Been reading once again about the infamous North Texas “Cobblestone Ice Storm” winter weather event 10 years ago. Worst driving conditions I’ve ever seen with 3-5 inches of sleet here in Grayson County. My wife and our kids missed school from Wednesday until the following Tuesday. Highway 75 was a parking lot for two or three days.

Some Facebook memories that have popped up this week:

DFW Scanner and others — If you don't have to go through Wise County tonight (specifically Rhome), stay home otherwise you will get stranded for the night, we are being told. Highways 287 and 114 in Rhome are beyond treacherous with solid ice, 8 inches in some spots.

Also, its probably a good idea to stay away from I20 west of Weatherford. Many people were stranded last night due to highway closures, ice, and stuck 18 wheelers/vehicles. Lows tonight will dip into the low 20s and high teens causing yet another re-freeze. I know we are beating a dead horse with this, but please folks, stay off the roads unless you must travel.

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What does AVOID US 75 SB AND NB mean to us? "Using this route at this time is to intentionally and knowingly gamble with your life, your property and that of your passengers and other motorists." Sarah Somers, Director, Grayson County OEM
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@GraysonCounty: US75 still hazardous - do not travel this roadway unless you are prepared for wait times of HOURS.
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My husband has worked for the Post Office for 10 years and this was the first time that he was told not to come to work today! Please if you have to be out BE CAREFUL!!
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ALERT! PLEASE PASS ALONG...

Oklahoma Highway Patrol is shutting down access to Texas on Hwy 75. ALL TRAFFIC WILL BE EXITED AT HWY 91 IN COLBERT AND SENT BACK NORTH.
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Texas DPS Trooper: Got called in on my day off and just spent 10 hours on Hwy 82 West. 6-8 miles of East bound traffic is at a dead stand still and will be until tomorrow. 100's of vehicles stranded all night and we are working 12 shifts 24/7 until it clears up. Please stay home unless it's an actual Emergency!