Texas Winter 2023-2024

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Going to be awhile before any significant cold gets into this part of the world, it's all locked up on the other side of the Globe

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_c_anom_7day/1701907200/1702814400-XYaPES8GNA0.png

However, the MJO is showing signs of bringing a more favorable pattern change to shift the cold over to our part of the world to start the New Year

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/BOMM(14).png

Time for the "bathtub slosh" theory to play out. Happened in 2006-2007, i think. Warm start to winter, then we got it in full force after the new year.

Any other analogs at play here? El nino has not been elninoing lately. Close 70F here in Denver last couple days.

Other El Nino analogs were 2009-2010, 1972-1973, and 1982-1983.

Curious what other analogs are close to what we've been experiencing. The Greenland high has ben very strong the last few weeks, which is a little bit further east than 2009. So much +PNA, which is quite annoying.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I would include 1965-1966 in the mix. Comparable Nino strength, PDO not crazy positive, and to date for the month (small sample however) I would say is a decent fit at the current moment.

https://i.imgur.com/ZTsfymd.png

This was one year i investigated over the summer. Had some very large arctic outbreaks down the plains. Also, was the only one from the analogs where i had below normal snowfall.

Just looked at the 500mb charts for that year and they are quite similar. Thanks again!

[Lagreeneyes03]

Going to be awhile before any significant cold gets into this part of the world, it's all locked up on the other side of the Globe

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_c_anom_7day/1701907200/1702814400-XYaPES8GNA0.png

However, the MJO is showing signs of bringing a more favorable pattern change to shift the cold over to our part of the world to start the New Year

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/BOMM(14).png

Time for the "bathtub slosh" theory to play out. Happened in 2006-2007, i think. Warm start to winter, then we got it in full force after the new year.

Any other analogs at play here? El nino has not been elninoing lately. Close 70F here in Denver last couple days.

Other El Nino analogs were 2009-2010, 1972-1973, and 1982-1983.

I'll take Winter 2009-2010 in N. Texas all week long and twice on Sundays. That was a good year.

[orangeblood]

I would include 1965-1966 in the mix. Comparable Nino strength, PDO not crazy positive, and to date for the month (small sample however) I would say is a decent fit at the current moment.

https://i.imgur.com/ZTsfymd.png

According to the GEFS - Siberian cold pours off the Asian continent into the North Pacific Week 2, forming a massive Aleutian Low. The type of 500mb anomalies shown on the latest GEFS at day 14 always get my attention. This may set the stage for the pattern change later this month into January

[Stratton23]

I hope we get a big pattern change, this mild pacific air flooding the US is just depressing at this point

[Brent]

Regardless of cold or not we gotta do better about the lack of rain I mean this is beyond ridiculous

[gpsnowman]

Regardless of cold or not we gotta do better about the lack of rain I mean this is beyond ridiculous

Seriously. I'm getting cracks in my yard again. The ground was moist for a while after the October rains but that is long gone. Even the weekend chances are very weak looking for north Texas.

[Iceresistance]

Regardless of cold or not we gotta do better about the lack of rain I mean this is beyond ridiculous

This is extremely beyond ridiculous for an El Nino, where is the rain??

[Stratton23]

El Nino? More like El Sucko, i definitely could use several inches of rain as well

[Itryatgolf]

When the mjo can get to the colder phases, the ensembles will adjust accordingly. That's imo of course.

[HockeyTx82]

Regardless of cold or not we gotta do better about the lack of rain I mean this is beyond ridiculous

This is extremely beyond ridiculous for an El Nino, where is the rain??

https://youtu.be/H0-pHnykC9s?feature=shared

[cstrunk]

Latest from Larry Cosgrove (of course this would be after we leave Kansas for the holidays and come back to Texas, shocker):

But this being December, and of course with the holiday season approaching, it is unwise to think that a "quiet and nice" forecast will escort us into 2024. But the CFS and ECMWF series suggest a more amplified pattern, with the Alaska/Yukon vortex retrogressing to below the Aleutian Islands and a rather vigorous +PNA and -NAO ridge configuration developing. Acting in concert with the still-impressive subtropical jet stream, longer term forecasts favor an intense winter storm across the middle portion of the lower 48 states at some point between Christmas Eve and New Year's Day. We will have a window in the last week of this month and the first seven days of January to see a frozen precipitation and cold advection pattern move across the nation.

Bring it on... I'll be in Iowa between Christmas and New Year's... and I might get in trouble with my girlfriend if it doesn't snow!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I hope we get a big pattern change, this mild pacific air flooding the US is just depressing at this point

There are some Nino effects right now. The mild air is making us seasonal to a bit above or below depending on cloud cover and precip.

If this was a Nina, we would actually torch. The next two weeks are very seasonal for us minus tomorrow.

[HockeyTx82]

I hope we get a big pattern change, this mild pacific air flooding the US is just depressing at this point

There are some Nino effects right now. The mild air is making us seasonal to a bit above or below depending on cloud cover and precip.

If this was a Nina, we would actually torch. The next two weeks are very seasonal for us minus tomorrow.

I think, and we do this every year, that because no snow or cold are being shown in model la la land we are losing hope. We always want that pipe busting, long duration with feet of snow cold. The reality is we live in Texas, and our avg weather is not that. We all know this, I'm just typing it out, haha.

[weatherdude1108]

Regardless of cold or not we gotta do better about the lack of rain I mean this is beyond ridiculous

This is extremely beyond ridiculous for an El Nino, where is the rain??

https://youtu.be/H0-pHnykC9s?feature=shared

I love that video! Chris Farley was great.

[Itryatgolf]

Hey guys. Does anyone know what happened to The Professor? He used to post on here often. Just wondering

[Texas Snow]

Hey guys. Does anyone know what happened to The Professor? He used to post on here often. Just wondering

He’s a big shot meteorologist with the national weather service now. He may have less time, and when he does, he may not want to be pinned down about more weather stuff.

[Brent]

I hope we get a big pattern change, this mild pacific air flooding the US is just depressing at this point

There are some Nino effects right now. The mild air is making us seasonal to a bit above or below depending on cloud cover and precip.

If this was a Nina, we would actually torch. The next two weeks are very seasonal for us minus tomorrow.

I think, and we do this every year, that because no snow or cold are being shown in model la la land we are losing hope. We always want that pipe busting, long duration with feet of snow cold. The reality is we live in Texas, and our avg weather is not that. We all know this, I'm just typing it out, haha.

It's crazy even up here everyone asking where the snow is when most of our 9 inches falls well after this date and these people have lived here way longer than I have I assume. I mean heck my first winter here I didn't see a flake til January and we still had over 10 inches that winter. Nobody has any patience apparently

I mean yeah I get the pattern sucks but it's December 7th

[Stratton23]

Hey in our defense, coming off the summer we just had, its hard to be patient about cold weather and snow opportunities around here!

[Brent]

Hey in our defense, coming off the summer we just had, its hard to be patient about cold weather and snow opportunities around here!

hey trust me I'm with you there but like I'm also trying to be realistic

Especially up here where our climo is better. Yeah there were several years in DFW I never saw any snow... Even our worst winters have had a dusting it seems