Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Yukon Cornelius]

Lets hit the brakes folks, winter literally just started, we got along ways to go, saying winters over when it just starting is ridiculous , a mild stretch of weather in december means absolutely nothing for the months ahead, we will get cold, we will have at least a few opportunities for wintry precip, just relax lol

We usually cancel winter numerous times a season around here. It’s kind of a storm2k winter thread tradition. If it’s not constantly cool/cold with snow, winter is cancelled.

Yeah, but “Winter Cancel” talk only a few days into meteorological winter…on December 5th?!? I’ll have to reread the rules, but isn’t that grounds for a suspension until spring? (Just kidding, of course!)

Besides, if we hand Heat Miser a win in the first week of the season, what else is there? And never forget, February 2021…

I think I cancelled fall on September 1st.

[Brent]

We usually cancel winter numerous times a season around here. It’s kind of a storm2k winter thread tradition. If it’s not constantly cool/cold with snow, winter is cancelled.

Yeah, but “Winter Cancel” talk only a few days into meteorological winter…on December 5th?!? I’ll have to reread the rules, but isn’t that grounds for a suspension until spring? (Just kidding, of course!)

Besides, if we hand Heat Miser a win in the first week of the season, what else is there? And never forget, February 2021…

I think I cancelled fall on September 1st.

The amount of times I saw the end of summer here and everytime it got hotter again then it just wouldn't end...

[Brent]

The 0z euro btw has 21 inches of snow in the Texas Panhandle

[Stratton23]

Brent seems the good ole Euro found the whisky cabinet on that run lol

[bubba hotep]

The 0z euro btw has 21 inches of snow in the Texas Panhandle

It's been showing that cutoff for a bit now. The Canadian and GFS also have versions of that cutoff, but all 3 models show it out beyond 7 days. We know what the model trend has been with storms out beyond day 7

Also, I would say it's less than 50% that the system verifies based on the ensemble runs. Maybe this is finally the system that trends our way as we move up closer in time?

[Iceresistance]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/byBi71KkJyo[/youtube]

[orangeblood]

Great to see the Strom2k Winter Weather Forum active again!!!!

It appears there isn't too much to discuss until end of month when the MJO gets into a more favorable position - NW NA Ridge finally pops, tapping into the Arctic

Both the GEFS and Euro Extended models are in fairly decent agreement on this pattern change!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I will say Christmas week looks seasonal to a bit below average for me and maybe a bit wet.

I’ll take it.

Then let the bottom drop

[Iceresistance]

To start December:

We have a +EPO/+WPO/-AO/-NAO (Becoming more neutral now)/+PNA combo, very bad for moisture.

[Brent]

Still seeing a lot of talk about the Christmas timeframe up here. This has been consistent and not delayed yet..

[Cpv17]

Sheesh, this place is dead. Never a good sign.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 yeah the models are an absolute dead beat, nothing remotely worth talking about lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It looks seasonal to a bit below. I’d love a good thunder sleet storm but I’ll take cool and seasonal over the alternative of poop humidity and 70s.

[orangeblood]

Going to be awhile before any significant cold gets into this part of the world, it's all locked up on the other side of the Globe



However, the MJO is showing signs of bringing a more favorable pattern change to shift the cold over to our part of the world to start the New Year

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Fantasy land GFS has some snow in my hometown while I’m there the 22nd-23rd of this month. Coastal Low goodness and temps in mid 30s

[rwfromkansas]

Latest from Larry Cosgrove (of course this would be after we leave Kansas for the holidays and come back to Texas, shocker):

But this being December, and of course with the holiday season approaching, it is unwise to think that a "quiet and nice" forecast will escort us into 2024. But the CFS and ECMWF series suggest a more amplified pattern, with the Alaska/Yukon vortex retrogressing to below the Aleutian Islands and a rather vigorous +PNA and -NAO ridge configuration developing. Acting in concert with the still-impressive subtropical jet stream, longer term forecasts favor an intense winter storm across the middle portion of the lower 48 states at some point between Christmas Eve and New Year's Day. We will have a window in the last week of this month and the first seven days of January to see a frozen precipitation and cold advection pattern move across the nation.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Going to be awhile before any significant cold gets into this part of the world, it's all locked up on the other side of the Globe

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_c_anom_7day/1701907200/1702814400-XYaPES8GNA0.png

However, the MJO is showing signs of bringing a more favorable pattern change to shift the cold over to our part of the world to start the New Year

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/BOMM(14).png

Time for the "bathtub slosh" theory to play out. Happened in 2006-2007, i think. Warm start to winter, then we got it in full force after the new year.

Any other analogs at play here? El nino has not been elninoing lately. Close 70F here in Denver last couple days.

[Iceresistance]

Latest from Larry Cosgrove (of course this would be after we leave Kansas for the holidays and come back to Texas, shocker):

But this being December, and of course with the holiday season approaching, it is unwise to think that a "quiet and nice" forecast will escort us into 2024. But the CFS and ECMWF series suggest a more amplified pattern, with the Alaska/Yukon vortex retrogressing to below the Aleutian Islands and a rather vigorous +PNA and -NAO ridge configuration developing. Acting in concert with the still-impressive subtropical jet stream, longer term forecasts favor an intense winter storm across the middle portion of the lower 48 states at some point between Christmas Eve and New Year's Day. We will have a window in the last week of this month and the first seven days of January to see a frozen precipitation and cold advection pattern move across the nation.

Oh snap! I am expected to be in Missouri during Christmas Week!

[Iceresistance]

Going to be awhile before any significant cold gets into this part of the world, it's all locked up on the other side of the Globe

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/nhemi/t2m_c_anom_7day/1701907200/1702814400-XYaPES8GNA0.png

However, the MJO is showing signs of bringing a more favorable pattern change to shift the cold over to our part of the world to start the New Year

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/BOMM(14).png

Time for the "bathtub slosh" theory to play out. Happened in 2006-2007, i think. Warm start to winter, then we got it in full force after the new year.

Any other analogs at play here? El nino has not been elninoing lately. Close 70F here in Denver last couple days.

Other El Nino analogs were 2009-2010, 1972-1973, and 1982-1983.

[Ntxw]

I would include 1965-1966 in the mix. Comparable Nino strength, PDO not crazy positive, and to date for the month (small sample however) I would say is a decent fit at the current moment.