cstrunk wrote:I was never fully convinced of the Enhanced risk for SETX given the clouds/precip forecast down there. But now the QPF bullseye signals are also migrating away from ETX... towards SW AR and far SETX. Looks like less than 1" for most locations in ETX, with locally higher amounts. At least we're getting something.
I don’t think the enhanced was a bad call, as the kinematics are pretty impressive, and any clearing might have been enough to realize the highly conditional threat. Since that hasn’t happened, fully agree with them taking it away.
Convective Chronicles had a forecast discussion on YouTube yesterday where he mentioned that the northward extent of moisture return was lagging behind what some of the cams were showing, this is probably what caused the threat area to shift south and ultimately kept things below the required threshold imo