Texas Fall 2023

[Itryatgolf]

If you're looking for a pattern shift, the long range EPS/GEFS ensembles 500mb height rises over western North America and Gulf of Alaska. That would be a good EPO pattern and change up the Aleutians leading up near ~20th. Long way out though.

Is that the post 10 day timeframe? I think we see laniña type patterns until the AAM goes positive imo. Do you know what's needed to switch the AAM to positive?

[cstrunk]

Warm, but still pleasant low-mid 80's through Wednesday before rain chances return Thursday/Friday. This weekend is cooler with highs in the 60's. Not a bad week for me.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Back to summer (too warm for fall)...

[weatherdude1108]

Back to summer (too warm for fall)...

Agreed, shouldn't be running the AC in November more than a few times IMO. The good old days.
If you don't, the mugginess takes over indoors. Fan helps, but the AC keeps the humidity/clamminess in check. Have to lower the set temp at times to keep the indoor moisture tolerable.

To think a week ago we were bundling up.lol

[rwfromkansas]

I am fine with under 90 for now, though if it was this hot in December that would be different....

[Ntxw]

If you're looking for a pattern shift, the long range EPS/GEFS ensembles 500mb height rises over western North America and Gulf of Alaska. That would be a good EPO pattern and change up the Aleutians leading up near ~20th. Long way out though.

Is that the post 10 day timeframe? I think we see laniña type patterns until the AAM goes positive imo. Do you know what's needed to switch the AAM to positive?

Not sure what would switch the AAM but a descending high in Asia might help, mountain torque? Probably too early for that stuff. We'll take this in November.

Pacific is just too hostile currently with Alaskan trough and ridge to the south of it (Aleutian.) This probably sets of a trough into the west coast medium to long range.

All of the ensembles now pop ridge into the GOA and flips the EPO but that is still yet after 20th. Maybe in time for a Thanksgivings cold shot. Until then pretty quiet.

[Brent]

Back to summer (too warm for fall)...

Agreed, shouldn't be running the AC in November more than a few times IMO. The good old days.
If you don't, the mugginess takes over indoors. Fan helps, but the AC keeps the humidity/clamminess in check. Have to lower the set temp at times to keep the indoor moisture tolerable.

To think a week ago we were bundling up.lol

Haha right we went from the Coldest Halloween on record to this I still don't see any real cold air in sight either... Cooler yes but nothing like we just saw

[TeamPlayersBlue]

November is a good month for the cold to stay up north so it can come down in full force for December. Building a solid snow pack and sea ice growth up north will help build larger HP's.

[mmmmsnouts]

Cold now in early November is a waste for Texas. Let it build up until it's cold enough for snow and then send it our way.

[Brent]

Cold now in early November is a waste for Texas. Let it build up until it's cold enough for snow and then send it our way.

Yeah I will say last winter we had a heavy wet snow burst for 5 minutes in November that didn't stick because temps were so warm and that was the only heavy wet snow we saw the whole winter(and Tulsa averages 9 inches, we barely had an inch) so I'm not totally hating on the warmth as much as I would otherwise. November cold does seem to be often times a waste or a bad omen

I remember thinking back then what would winter be like and yeah it epically failed

[CaptinCrunch]

Low to mid 80s for highs today and Wednesday, cooler Thursday with a nice cool down for the weekend and next week. High's in the low to mid 60's put us slightly below normal in temps. Rain chanes Thursday still look 20%-30% but I'll take that.

On a side note, the Arctic Ice buildup is slightly ahead of where it was this time last year, so there are signs that it's getting colder a little quicker in our sourse region.

[starsfan65]

Low to mid 80s for highs today and Wednesday, cooler Thursday with a nice cool down for the weekend and next week. High's in the low to mid 60's put us slightly below normal in temps. Rain chanes Thursday still look 20%-30% but I'll take that.

On a side note, the Arctic Ice buildup is slightly ahead of where it was this time last year, so there are signs that it's getting colder a little quicker in our sourse region.

They said there is a 70 percent of Rain on Thursday.

[South Texas Storms]

Low to mid 80s for highs today and Wednesday, cooler Thursday with a nice cool down for the weekend and next week. High's in the low to mid 60's put us slightly below normal in temps. Rain chanes Thursday still look 20%-30% but I'll take that.

On a side note, the Arctic Ice buildup is slightly ahead of where it was this time last year, so there are signs that it's getting colder a little quicker in our sourse region.

They said there is a 70 percent of Rain on Thursday.

North TX will likely see some periods of light rain on Thursday. Heavier rain is forecast across south TX.

[TropicalTundra]

Tomorrow clouds will probably keep us in the 70s before the cold front and rain bring us down to average temps on Thursday through the weekend. Doesn't look bad if Thanksgiving gets decently cold.

[gpsnowman]

Tomorrow clouds will probably keep us in the 70s before the cold front and rain bring us down to average temps on Thursday through the weekend. Doesn't look bad if Thanksgiving gets decently cold.

40s-60s for a few days is just fine. But there is nothing better than a cold Thanksgiving.

[Ntxw]

Yeah after tomorrow much of the warmth fades. It will feel like November. The notion was that there won't be many wild swings one way or the other, it will feel as November should be!

[Ntxw]

We don't have very many moderate/strong El Nino's of recent to go by, we have the super 15 and several weak ones that were uncoupled or mixed bags of signals. The weak ones can feature cold Novembers but the moderate/strong ones tend to have early month warmth. So we're in a pretty good spot (not that it's all that warm going forward more like hovering normal or close.) By month's end you do want to flip the Pacific pattern. Getting that Aleutian low is crucial to attacking the stratosphere and helping the troposphere weaken the upper PV.

Eventually the STJ is going to break through due to the El Nino. If the Polar domain is favorable (-AO) then we will see large storms deepen over the southern tier of the US and that's when the fun begins.

[cstrunk]

SE half of Texas looking good for a decent rain coming up, with better amounts especially along the gulf coast. Also looking like we could end up with 1-2" here in Longview.

[aggiecutter]

I found this on the KARK NBC affiliate Web Site in Little Rock Arkansas. I assume the information would apply to the southern plains and the Mid-South:

[Brent]

It was 95 in Hollis Oklahoma today. Where is that cold front