Texas Fall 2023

[HockeyTx82]

Precip depiction to the west of me is showing sleet? Any ground truth?

I'm down to 37F IMBY

[tajmahal]

Precip depiction to the west of me is showing sleet? Any ground truth?

I'm down to 37F IMBY

The sleet/graupel/snow showing up on radar west of you is at 2,000+ feet.

[Brent]

I never saw or heard of anything frozen here but good luck

[tajmahal]

Since October 24, the combined conservation pool storage of the two main reservoirs of the Highland Lakes has increased by 8.3 percent. At that rate, the storage would double every 43.4 days.

Current conservation pool storage in acre–feet:
420,457...Lake Travis
379,426...Lake Buchanan
799,883...Total as of October 29, 2023

Change since October 24, in acre–feet:
+42,985...Travis
+18,441...Buchanan
+61,426...Total change (+20,024,876,000 gallons)

Lake surface elevations:
631.94 feet...Travis
993.55 feet...Buchanan

[rwfromkansas]

Not sure why, but FWD has upgraded to a freeze warning for the entire metro for Tuesday morning. The coldest morning is Wednesday, and even much of the metro should be above freezing, though I think I will get to 29 or maybe 30.

[TropicalTundra]

Unexpected snowband setting up just north of I-40. Although don't know if it'l last in the drier air

[cstrunk]

Didn't get any heavy rain in Longview, but got a couple of good soakers at least. 1.10" last Thursday and 1.19" yesterday and today.

It's chilly today!

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure why, but FWD has upgraded to a freeze warning for the entire metro for Tuesday morning. The coldest morning is Wednesday, and even much of the metro should be above freezing, though I think I will get to 29 or maybe 30.

I’m in Dallas proper and my forecast low for Tuesday morning is around 32-33, depending on the forecast package. Not sure if I’ll make it here, but it seems like most areas outside the immediate cities have a decent shot

Edit: should have been Wednesday morning above, not Tuesday

[rwfromkansas]

Since I made that post, the NWS lowered lows, so I think they issued the warning in preparation for their forecast change.

It shows me down to 30, which before it wasn't even below freezing.

I think tonight I might get to 32 and likely 29 tomorrow night.

[Ntxw]

Surface high pressure will be overhead. If winds calm we'll have freeze even into the urban core and 20s surrounding. This can overachieve with lows, again depending on winds.

[South Texas Storms]

After the long and hot summer we went through, this cold air feels amazing outside!

[gpsnowman]

After the long and hot summer we went through, this cold air feels amazing outside!

It does. Summer memories are still fresh and I want revenge.

[weatherdude1108]

Since October 24, the combined conservation pool storage of the two main reservoirs of the Highland Lakes has increased by 8.3 percent. At that rate, the storage would double every 43.4 days.

Current conservation pool storage in acre–feet:
420,457...Lake Travis
379,426...Lake Buchanan
799,883...Total as of October 29, 2023

Change since October 24, in acre–feet:
+42,985...Travis
+18,441...Buchanan
+61,426...Total change (+20,024,876,000 gallons)

Lake surface elevations:
631.94 feet...Travis
993.55 feet...Buchanan

Nice news! Hoping we don't have to wait too long before the next rainy period, so we can keep things flowing.

[rwfromkansas]

Interesting post Larry Cosgrove just shared:

“WINTER SEASON CHECKLIST

Major Influence: Current Moderate, Basin-Wide El Nino Episode

If the current El Nino episode unfolds as the numerical models forecast, the eastern portion of the warm water field in the Pacific Basin will cool while the western and central sectors remain relatively above normal. Madden-Julian Oscillation impulses or percolations should mostly fall in Phases 6, 7, 8, and 1, which could have the effect of setting up a West (Modoki) or Central El Nino. Basin wide or East-based positive ENSO events almost always lead to bearish/mild/snowless DJFM periods in the populated lower 48 states east of the Continental Divide. West-oriented warmings often help to amplify ridges in western North America, which can produce the coldest winters.

DECEMBER:

Most parameters suggest a cold West vs. warm East alignment. But the vigorous southern branch storm track may alter that picture if it comes in through Baja California and emerges over the open Gulf of Mexico. Note that precipitation potential which suggests Gulf Coaster > Nor'easter tracks, which would bring cP air masses southward in concert with Alaska ridging.

JANUARY

There is actually good agreement between the ECMWF model results for January and that of the analogs. A strong -NAO ridge signal, somewhat like 2010, forces a gigantic buckle of the polar and Arctic jet streams through the Rio Grande Valley and Florida. A cAk vortex in British Columbia and an mAk gyre over the Flemish Cap are possible core features. This is a recipe for alternating strong Arctic intrusions and lower-latitude ice and snow events. In theory, when the two vortices separate enough, ridging in the middle of the continent might bring about a January Thaw, perhaps in the third week of 2024.

FEBRUARY

Rather than a genuine split flow, common to El Nino events, this February may be a special case where a unified Arctic/polar/subtropical jet stream is forced far below a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO ridge complex. Literally a mild Canada vs. cold USA configuration with the potential for ice and snow (depending on actual air mass alignment) might visit northern Mexico, Texas and the Deep South. This pattern may replicate in northern Asia and Europe. Of all the months in the coming winter, the best chance for a high-impact frozen precipitation and wind event looks to be the second month of 2024. But ridging may suppress chances for snow in the Great Lakes, New York and New England.

MARCH

The impression I get from the forecast depiction is of a "last hurrah" winter storm in early March that moves out of the Southwest through Dixie, then into the open Atlantic Ocean. All guidance reverts the temperature field to much warmer air from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Late season cold and snow would cover the West and possibly West Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle. But the "fill the space" ridge signal reminds me strongly of 1973, where the spring along the Eastern Seaboard quickly turned warm and stayed that way through the following summer. There may also be a Colorado/Limon vertically stacked storm involving the High Plains and Rocky Mountains”

[tajmahal]

A few days ago, ERCOT announced that the grid it manages would have a 20 percent chance of falling into an emergency condition if the cold temperatures just before Christmas 2022 were repeated this coming winter. ERCOT did not say what would happen if the much colder temperatures of February 2021 happened again.

[Brent]

Next 10 days look awfully dry again

[Brent]

Next 10 days look awfully dry again hopefully things will turn wetter towards the middle of the month

[cstrunk]

Happy Halloween, weather weenies!

Enjoy this cool air!

[rwfromkansas]

Got down to 31.5 IMBY, so first freeze for me. DFW didn’t come close.

[Yukon Cornelius]

27 this glorious Halloween morning with a heck of a frost. Second freeze of the year!