Texas Fall 2023

[Brent]

Good grief the GFS is cold... Would be probably close to the coldest Halloween on record here and definitely among the coldest highs ever in October

[Ntxw]

Good grief the GFS is cold... Would be probably close to the coldest Halloween on record here and definitely among the coldest highs ever in October

For DFW any Halloween day in the 40s would be a top 5 event for highs. The analogs have been a pretty good indicator a hween cold snap could occur. Some El Ninos have a tendency.

Back in late August.

The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

[Itryatgolf]

Good grief the GFS is cold... Would be probably close to the coldest Halloween on record here and definitely among the coldest highs ever in October

For DFW any Halloween day in the 40s would be a top 5 event for highs. The analogs have been a pretty good indicator a hween cold snap could occur. Some El Ninos have a tendency.

Back in late August.

The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.

In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...

Models probably still underestimating the cold because the WPO/EPO is really negative

[weatherdude1108]

It's RAINING!! Heavy showers.

Rain barrel was 2/3 full yesterday. Full this morning now.

Thank you Norma!

Update: We got about 1.25" or so this morning out of that (CoCoRaHS gauge 1" mark overflowed into second tube), and it's just Monday.

[rwfromkansas]

DFW graphic only puts average rain totals at 1 to 1.5 inches over Tarrant and less east. Here we go again.

But, the models look better overall. I looked at a wrong one I think a second ago, but Euro and GFS both look good currently.

[utpmg]

Got 1.9" in my East AUstin gauge this morning; seems higher than most surrounding sites. Hmmm.

[bubba hotep]

DFW graphic only puts average rain totals at 1 to 1.5 inches over Tarrant and less east. Here we go again.

But, the models look better overall. I looked at a wrong one I think a second ago, but Euro and GFS both look good currently.

Models have shifted NW to avoid the areas hardest hit by drought

[rwfromkansas]

DFW graphic only puts average rain totals at 1 to 1.5 inches over Tarrant and less east. Here we go again.

But, the models look better overall. I looked at a wrong one I think a second ago, but Euro and GFS both look good currently.

Models have shifted NW to avoid the areas hardest hit by drought

This is why it's hard to get excited about models showing heavy rain even a few days before. They just shift west or east. Lol.

I still think DFW gets an inch or so, but hard to be confident of any more.

[Edwards Limestone]

[Ntxw]

The trend on the ENS has been to dig more troughing into the southwest and ridging in the Pac NW. What this does is allows surface cold to spill into the southern plains at a more favorable angle. Hanging the trough in the west/sw creates less resistance, so definitely could see Halloween trend colder.

[rwfromkansas]

At least some watersheds will be getting rain. But, this is comical.

[JayDT]

I’m hearing talk of some cold weather coming so of course I had to come back on here.. Feels good to be back for another fall/winter! Always good to get some insight from everyone here.

[Cpv17]

I feel like the GFS is still a bit too warm for next week. It should continue to trend colder. I’m thinking 30’s for lows and 40’s for highs in southeast TX next week for maybe 2-3 days. Possibly colder on high temps depending on cloud cover and rain. Hopefully we can get more setups like this in D-F.

[Iceresistance]

What are you even doing CMC?


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And who ordered the Halloween Blue Norther?


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[Brent]

I feel like the GFS is still a bit too warm for next week. It should continue to trend colder. I’m thinking 30’s for lows and 40’s for highs in southeast TX next week for maybe 2-3 days. Possibly colder on high temps depending on cloud cover and rain. Hopefully we can get more setups like this in D-F.

Yeah I keep remembering how the globals usually struggle with cold air here and yet some of these op runs are about as cold as it ever gets in October here. We shall see

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't totally discount the frozen precip odds, though extremely low chances, it's happened before.

[weatherdude1108]

Got another downpour about 20 minutes ago. Lock it in!

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose's blog:


Monday, October 23, 2023 2:53 PM

A wave of low pressure tracking north out of South Texas early Monday morning brought a widespread area of rain to much of the Interstate 35 corridor, from just north of San Antonio to north of Georgetown. The highest totals occurred across Travis County, where amounts of up to 1.5 inches were recorded. Elsewhere, most totals averaged less than a tenth of an inch.

The month of October has been drier than normal, with just one period of widespread rain occurring around the 5th. Since that time, the rain has stayed away from most of Texas, despite the passage of several cold fronts. As we start off the last full week of October, a wetter and more unsettled weather pattern has taken shape, thanks to a large trough of low pressure sinking south along the southern coast of California and the remnants of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone Norma that are spreading northeast across Far West Texas. In addition, a moist and warm flow of air has developed off the Gulf of Mexico. These factors are expected to cause a daily chance for rain this afternoon through Friday, with a slight chance for rain continuing into the upcoming weekend. While this rain will indeed be very welcome, this week’s setup is not expected to produce heavy rain across the eastern Hill Country or Central Texas.

This afternoon through Tuesday, the best coverage of rain is predicted to be across West and Northwest Texas along with the western Hill Country, where an enhanced area of Pacific moisture is forecast to slowly spread to the northeast, producing showers and scattered thunderstorms. The probability for rain across this area will be near 60 percent this afternoon through Tuesday night. Across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast, periods of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected. The probability for rain will be near 50 percent this afternoon, decreasing to 30 percent Monday night and Tuesday. High temperatures both days are predicted to be in the mid-80s.

Rain amounts through Tuesday night are forecast to average between 0.5 and 1 inch across the western Hill Country, and less than a quarter inch at most other locations.

The most favorable period for rain and thunderstorms this week is forecast to take place Wednesday into Thursday morning, when the trough of low pressure out west tracks northeast, moving across Far West Texas and Panhandle regions. A widespread coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop and spread northeast across West Texas, including the western Hill Country Wednesday into Wednesday night. A fairly good coverage of rain showers is also forecast across the eastern Hill Country, Central Texas, and coastal areas Wednesday. The probability for rain Wednesday through Wednesday night will be 70 percent across the Hill Country, and near 50 percent at most other locations. The rain is forecast to decrease in coverage and intensity Thursday morning.

Rain amounts Wednesday through Thursday morning are forecast to be near 1-1.5 inches across the western Hill Country. Totals across the eastern Hill Country and much of Central Texas are forecast to average between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. Across the coastal plains, totals are forecast to average around a quarter inch.

Decreasing chances for rain are forecast Thursday afternoon as the trough of low pressure exits to the northeast. However, lingering moisture, a moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and some weak waves of low pressure lifting north out of Mexico will cause a 20-30 percent chance for mainly afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Rain amounts through this period will be low—generally around a quarter inch or less. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky, with daily high temperatures in the low and mid-80s.

Total rain amounts over the next five days are forecast to range from 2-4 inches across the western Hill Country, to around 0.5 to 1 inches along the Interstate 35 corridor, to around 0.25 to 0.5 inches along the middle Texas coast.

https://www.lcra.org/news/bob-rose-on-the-weather/

[rwfromkansas]

Euro looks good for DFW, so hopefully, enough rains come later in the week further east.

Nice to see rain in areas that need it regardless.

[Iceresistance]

Euro looks good for DFW, so hopefully, enough rains come later in the week further east.

Nice to see rain in areas that need it regardless.

Well, it could be a bit too much.


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