Texas Fall 2023

[869MB]

PDO has really warmed up over the past few weeks. Hopefully next week is just the start of an extended wet pattern for us!

Yay!

https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1715392321112449438?s=20

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1715392321112449438/photo/1

[rwfromkansas]

Considering the GFS is moving slightly west, a little concerned about next week for DFW. Somebody will get rain. The question is where. I thought the Euro was initially looking good but then it ended like it has before, well west.

[Ntxw]

SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/q7o1Yqq.png

Sorry, still trying to educate myself on the PDO.

When you mentioned "north Pacific cooling", I was thinking the cooling made the PDO more negative(?); Then I thought "continued rain delays/bummer/sucks," etc.

But I guess this cooling is good news? With all the "likes" I'm guess it is(?). Is it cooling and warming in certain parts of the Pacific (north vs. south with respect to the PDO)?

There are two major components in the mid to high latitudes of the Pacific that is calculated for the PDO. One aspect is the western North Pacific near and east of Japan into the Aleutians. The other is off the west coast in the eastern North Pacific. +PDO is cold east of Japan and warm off the west coast. -PDO is warm east off Japan and cold off the west coast.

The current --PDO is being driven to very negative values mainly due to the marine heat wave off Japan. As this cools the PDO will relax. ENSO's tropical forcing often modulates this region.

[869MB]

SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/q7o1Yqq.png

It is…You can even finally see signs of it in the OLR data…


https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/olr#:~:text=Outgoing%20Longwave%20Radiation%20(OLR)%20data,to%20160%C2%B0W%20longitude.

[Ntxw]

SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/q7o1Yqq.png

It is…You can even finally see signs of it in the OLR data…


https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/olr#:~:text=Outgoing%20Longwave%20Radiation%20(OLR)%20data,to%20160%C2%B0W%20longitude.

Hopefully we can sustain it. My understanding from various papers is that ENSO's tropical forcing plays a bigger role in shifting the PDO rather than the other way around since it has a higher energy budget. PDO often is a lag indicator to prior ENSO. So if the El Nino is coupling then we may see some real relief on the horizon.

[weatherdude1108]

SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/q7o1Yqq.png

It is…You can even finally see signs of it in the OLR data…


https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/olr#:~:text=Outgoing%20Longwave%20Radiation%20(OLR)%20data,to%20160%C2%B0W%20longitude.

Hopefully we can sustain it. My understanding from various papers is that ENSO's tropical forcing plays a bigger role in shifting the PDO rather than the other way around since it has a higher energy budget. PDO often is a lag indicator to prior ENSO. So if the El Nino is coupling then we may see some real relief on the horizon.

Thank you for the explanations! I need to save your answers somewhere for my own future reference!lol

Looking forward to wet relief.

[rwfromkansas]

I will say this forum has helped me immensely in understanding things like the PDO, PNA, NAO etc. All these teleconnections are really quite confusing with what exactly they mean unless you know what to look for and how it impacts the weather. A lot of explanations in articles don't really do enough to explain the why.

[869MB]

SSTa change does show the north Pacific cooling, especially in the west where it's held up the -PDO largely. Maybe the El Nino is coupling in the mid latitudes.

https://i.imgur.com/q7o1Yqq.png

It is…You can even finally see signs of it in the OLR data…


https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/enso/olr#:~:text=Outgoing%20Longwave%20Radiation%20(OLR)%20data,to%20160%C2%B0W%20longitude.

Hopefully we can sustain it. My understanding from various papers is that ENSO's tropical forcing plays a bigger role in shifting the PDO rather than the other way around since it has a higher energy budget. PDO often is a lag indicator to prior ENSO. So if the El Nino is coupling then we may see some real relief on the horizon.

I think we will be able to sustain it. El Niño is indeed slowly coupling with the mid-latitudes and that coupling will get stronger over the next few months. If accurate, you can see some of the results of this coupling in the Real Time CFS ULRF Projections as of today. There is distinct and very defined projection for a more large scale subsiding, stable atmosphere (less cloud cover) to set up over the Maritime Continent, Indian Ocean regions while a more rising, unsettled atmosphere (more cloud coverage) sets up near the International Date Line roughly around 180 Degrees West Longitude going forward through January. I guess this phenomenon is related to the Walker Circulation Branches. This more unsettled, upward branch of this Walker Circulation is projected to slide to the east as time progresses but not as far east as compared to the El Niños of 1997 or 2015. (I tried to paste the map here for illustration purposes but I can’t get it to paste.) https://www.kylemacritchie.com/meteorology/showhovs.php

Again, assuming this CFS forecast is accurate, the El Niño coupling will become more and more apparent as time passes. Now my only question or concern is how long will it take for us, as in the state of Texas, to reap some of the full benefits of this building El Niño. I can’t help but notice from that same CFS forecast, that there is a consistent signal or projection of more OLR (less cloud coverage) and more sinking, stable air roughly between 80 to 100 Degrees West Longitude through the same time period. I’ll take this with a grain of salt for now, but it will be interesting to watch to see if some of our regions, especially East Texas, ends up slightly drier than normal precipitation-wise through mid-January. One good thing I’ve noticed is that this CFS signal of less cloud coverage, sinking air weather pattern over our longitude is not as strong as it was forecasting before. Maybe this will be the beginning of more positive trend for our region going forward with respect to precipitation chances.

[weatherdude1108]

I will say this forum has helped me immensely in understanding things like the PDO, PNA, NAO etc. All these teleconnections are really quite confusing with what exactly they mean unless you know what to look for and how it impacts the weather. A lot of explanations in articles don't really do enough to explain the why.

Oh yeah, I've learned so much more from this forum than anyone I have seen on TV or from the NWS discussions. Some NWS discussions are great, but the NWS and TV mets tend to explain the "what" and put out alerts, but don't go deep into explaining the "why" as much.

I guess they have to appeal to the masses to be able to get it across to most people, instead of only to the weather nerds like us, who like more details.

But yes, so glad for this forum of pro mets and weather researchers/enthusiasts!

[tajmahal]

PDO has really warmed up over the past few weeks. Hopefully next week is just the start of an extended wet pattern for us!

Yay!

https://x.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1715392321112449438?s=20

https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1715392321112449438/photo/1

We'll see in early November what the reliable sources say about October's PDO index. The WCS is not one of those.

Since 1960, El Niños have not been predictors of the PDO index.

This year's El Niño is way behind recent strong El Niños concerning their effects on sea level in October.

[tajmahal]

At Austin Camp Mabry, today's high temperature of 97° was the hottest on record for so late in the year (October 14–December 31). It also tied for the 17th hottest October temperature on record.

[Brent]

GFS very cold for Halloween single digit lows and a snowstorm in Kansas

Looks like we might be going straight to winter considering Tulsa hit 84 today

[Itryatgolf]

GFS very cold for Halloween single digit lows and a snowstorm in Kansas

Looks like we might be going straight to winter considering Tulsa hit 84 today

Alot of rain for some as well

[tajmahal]

GFS very cold for Halloween single digit lows and a snowstorm in Kansas

Looks like we might be going straight to winter considering Tulsa hit 84 today

I'm not seeing either of those extremes in the latest GFS run.

[bubba hotep]

GFS or Bust for DFW next week!

[bubba hotep]

GFS very cold for Halloween single digit lows and a snowstorm in Kansas

Looks like we might be going straight to winter considering Tulsa hit 84 today

Freeze down to the Red River and Halloween temps in the 40's and ow 50's for the DFW area

[Brent]

GFS very cold for Halloween single digit lows and a snowstorm in Kansas

Looks like we might be going straight to winter considering Tulsa hit 84 today

Freeze down to the Red River and Halloween temps in the 40's and ow 50's for the DFW area

There's been a consistent signal here that's for sure to be way colder and wetter than it has been at least. 50s for highs next weekend even on WeatherBug

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS holds and the CMC takes a nice shift eastward. Some differences at H5 and how fast the models bring Norma NE.

[Ntxw]

The ENS are now following up the Alaskan ridging with some cold air moving southward after a warmup.

GFS is on the cold Halloween train. CMC is shifting towards some western troughing. Euro is more transient but still a cold snap for the period. Definitely looking like your Halloween chill of yesteryear El Ninos.

As far as Norma, cloud cover might keep some temps from shooting to record highs this weekend. For those of us burned by qpf always shifting to our east, perhaps being on the east side is not so bad .

[Itryatgolf]

The ENS are now following up the Alaskan ridging with some cold air moving southward after a warmup.

GFS is on the cold Halloween train. CMC is shifting towards some western troughing. Euro is more transient but still a cold snap for the period. Definitely looking like your Halloween chill of yesteryear El Ninos.

As far as Norma, cloud cover might keep some temps from shooting to record highs this weekend. For those of us burned by qpf always shifting to our east, perhaps being on the east side is not so bad .

A guy at American Weather is saying a strong -WPO/EPO combo should send some intense cold down aka cross polar flow, albeit early season so definitely modified. He seems intrigued as of now