ATL: TAMMY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[IsabelaWeather]

Given that Tammy has just formed and the 0Z models didn't have recon data, uncertainty on track and intensity is rather high. The ECMWF and EPS have been handling Tammy's intensification and track poorly (GEFS has had better handle). Hopefully with the 12Z run the EPS should be a more useful tool, once recon data is ingested.

I think the risk to the US/British Virgin Islands and PR is higher than the NHC track would suggest, as I explain in this thread.

The 11am update has the center at 13.6N, but looking at the last center point on the recon that would be a NW vector. Any idea why they have the center so far north when we just had recon in there?

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Watch for Guadeloupe and Tropical Storm Warning for that island. TS watches issued for St Marteen and other islands.

[WalterWhite]

1003 mb is a pretty high pressure for a 50 kt storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[zzzh]

1003 mb is a pretty high pressure for a 50 kt storm.

Matthew'16 was 50/1009.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

At that rate Barbados would be out of the woods right?

Given that Tammy has just formed and the 0Z models didn't have recon data, uncertainty on track and intensity is rather high. The ECMWF and EPS have been handling Tammy's intensification and track poorly (GEFS has had better handle). Hopefully with the 12Z run the EPS should be a more useful tool, once recon data is ingested.

I think the risk to the US/British Virgin Islands and PR is higher than the NHC track would suggest, as I explain in this thread.

The 11am update has the center at 13.6N, but looking at the last center point on the recon that would be a NW vector. Any idea why they have the center so far north when we just had recon in there?

[wxman57]

Tammy is looking less impressive now than it did this morning. Big outflow boundary area is a sign of weakening.

[Cachondo23]

Tammy is looking less impressive now than it did this morning. Big outflow boundary area is a sign of weakening.

Is it moving NW?

[cycloneye]

For our friends in the islands, the 2 PM update of watches and warnings.


The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Anguilla
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin

[wxman57]

Center is now exposed. Plane is finding winds about 10 kts lower than this morning.

[Nimbus]

Center is now exposed. Plane is finding winds about 10 kts lower than this morning.

Good news for now, but convection is starting to build back west over the center and recon has positioned the center a little south of NHC position so Guadalupe may stay in the cone.

[Stormybajan]

Center is now exposed. Plane is finding winds about 10 kts lower than this morning.

Good news for now, but convection is starting to build back west over the center and recon has positioned the center a little south of NHC position so Guadalupe may stay in the cone.

As a bajan do you think its possible for Tammy's center to relocate to the south and east? The convection and looks like some more banding over there seems interesting to me!

[wxman57]

Center is now exposed. Plane is finding winds about 10 kts lower than this morning.

Good news for now, but convection is starting to build back west over the center and recon has positioned the center a little south of NHC position so Guadalupe may stay in the cone.

The cone is irrelevant, it does not imply impacts. However, I have the center passing right over Guadeloupe on Saturday.

[wxman57]

Center is now exposed. Plane is finding winds about 10 kts lower than this morning.

Good news for now, but convection is starting to build back west over the center and recon has positioned the center a little south of NHC position so Guadalupe may stay in the cone.

As a bajan do you think its possible for Tammy's center to relocate to the south and east? The convection and looks like some more banding over there seems interesting to me!

Looks like it may be relocating NORTH and east, based on the latest recon pass. FL winds do not match SFMR at all. This is not a hurricane with 30kt FL winds.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

For our members in the Leeward islands, there are changes in the watches and warnings at 8 PM.

The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch for Anguilla and St. Barthelemy.

The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St.
Martin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Anguilla and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Guadeloupe
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Anguilla and St. Barthelemy
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* Saba and St. Eustatius

[ThunderForce]

Right now it looks like most of the convection is displaced a bit to the southeast? I can't really tell exactly.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1715189068860924407

[zzzh]

New convective burst covered the center. Microwave shows that Tammy is trying to wrap around from NE side.

[Sciencerocks]