Erika Preliminary Report Up=It was a hurricane after all

#1 Postby **Andrew92** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 6:24 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003erika.shtml?

Erika DID become a hurricane after all.

-Andrew92

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 6:49 pm

So now the numbers for the 2003 hurricane season are 14/7/3 instead of 14/6/3.

#3 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 6:58 pm

Wow! I'm glad they upgraded it. I mean, if it had an eye, and satellite estimates were above 65 Knots, then most likely it is a hurricane. I wonder if in 2005 when they finish the reanalysis if they will upgrade other systems of 70 M.P.H. to Hurricane status. I mean, what's 5 M.P.H?

Also, I have a question. Why did they do Erika now? What is the order which they do the storms? Logically, they would do Ana, 2, Bill, Claudette...

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 7:37 pm

I told you so!

That Brownsville Doppler radar estimate stuck with me like a severe headache that wouldn't go away ... Even though it was only 5 MPH (and made it a hurricane), I'm glad that it was upgraded as should be ...

SF

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 9:41 pm

This means I win my bet with my boss. I had bet that Erika WOULD become a hurricane prior to landfall. We both agreed to go by any post-storm analysis that the NHC issued at a later date, as there was some question about the NHC's not upgrading it at landfall.

The bet? Just a "coke-bet". Ok, we're not big betters at our office. :wink:

JCT777 · #6 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Nov 18, 2003 9:56 am

wxman57 wrote:The bet? Just a "coke-bet". Ok, we're not big betters at our office.

That would be a major bet for me, though. :wink:

Glad to hear that you won the bet! 8-)

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Nov 18, 2003 11:03 am

Yep, Barry in 2001 and Gabrielle may have been hurricanes as well.

#8 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Nov 18, 2003 2:23 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Yep, Barry in 2001 and Gabrielle may have been hurricanes as well.

Actually, Gabrielle was a hurricane.....on its way out to sea.

But I know what you mean, but I think it was probably a tropical storm at landfall.

I know, I'm bad and evil and must be stopped. :grrr:

Glad to hear you won the bet too WXMan!

-Andrew92

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Nov 18, 2003 7:00 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Yep, Barry in 2001 and Gabrielle may have been hurricanes as well.

I'd have to look at reanalysis data for Barry (since there hasn't been much conjecture about Barry being a tropical storm or hurricane, but Gabrielle was clearly NOT a hurricane when it made landfall on the Florida coast ... there were absolutely no wind reports, buoys, land observations, etc... to support such a reasoning ...

The damage was typical of a strong tropical storm and with not one observation registering sustained hurricane force winds, land nor sea, I agree with the NHC 100% that Gabrielle was a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane.

SF

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Nov 18, 2003 8:05 pm

And upon further review of Barry 2001 ... this is my conclusion ...

Barry was damn close, and quite possibly a hurricane. A clear cut case that Barry would have a much better chance than Gabrielle...

The prelim report put it at 73 mph (62 kts) based on many numerous sources... further reanalysis (HURDAT project ongoing) may eventually have enough evidence to bring this Barry to a hurricane at the later date ... which the project is expected to conclude in 2005 ... currently AOML/HURDAT division is reanalyzing the 1910's, 1920's, and 1930's, including the Labor Day Hurricane, and expect that storm to be much stronger than the 140 kts originally thought IMHO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001barry.html

chadtm80 · #11 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Nov 18, 2003 8:29 pm

Storm2k's very own King Of Weather had those Exact Numbers :-)

ColdFront77 · #12 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Nov 19, 2003 4:16 am

Stormsfury wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:Yep, Barry in 2001 and Gabrielle may have been hurricanes as well.

I'd have to look at reanalysis data for Barry (since there hasn't been much conjecture about Barry being a tropical storm or hurricane, but Gabrielle was clearly NOT a hurricane when it made landfall on the Florida coast ... there were absolutely no wind reports, buoys, land observations, etc... to support such a reasoning ...

The damage was typical of a strong tropical storm and with not one observation registering sustained hurricane force winds, land nor sea, I agree with the NHC 100% that Gabrielle was a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane.

SF

I remember Tropical Storm Gabrielle getting close to hurricane strength as the storm made landfall along the southwestern Florida coast. Gabrielle's center was near Orlando at 5:00 pm Eastern Time on Friday, September 14th, 2003; just three days after "September 11th."

Aside from Gordon, which I don't remember being a big deal here across central Florida... Gabrielle was pretty much the first tropical system to affect this portion of central Florida since I moved here in June 2000.

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Nov 19, 2003 8:01 am

Okay maybe not Gabrielle. Storms like Dennis in 1999, and Gordon in 2000, as well as Barry in 2001. What about Bill this year?

#14 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Wed Nov 19, 2003 5:04 pm

I don't think Bill will be a hurricane. It only got up to like 60 M.P.H. There were no reports of Hurricane winds onshore, so I doubt it. Barry might, Dennis might, and Gordon was hurricane before landfall, but it weakened, so I don't think so.

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Nov 19, 2003 6:41 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Okay maybe not Gabrielle. Storms like Dennis in 1999, and Gordon in 2000, as well as Barry in 2001. What about Bill this year?

The NHC already concluded that Barry was a 60 mph tropical storm on post-analysis data ...

AussieMark · #16 Postby **AussieMark** » Wed Nov 19, 2003 7:53 pm

Correct.

Mike was there any data that supports the possibility of Dennis 1999 being a hurricane at landfall.

Stormsfury · #17 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Nov 19, 2003 8:04 pm

tropicalweatherwatcher wrote:Correct.

Mike was there any data that supports the possibility of Dennis 1999 being a hurricane at landfall.

Not at landfall ... here's an excerpt from the Prelim Report of Dennis 1999.

"A large westerly ridge over the eastern United States forced Dennis southward late on 2 September. This motion toward warmer water probably aided a deep convective burst on the next day. Later that day, Dennis turned northwest toward the North Carolina coast as the ridge moved east into the Atlantic. This motion continued on the 4th along with re-intensification. Dennis was just below hurricane strength when it made landfall over the Cape Lookout National Seashore just east of Harkers Island, NC at 2100 UTC that day. Dennis continued inland and weakened to a depression on the 5th over central North Carolina. Even in dissipation, Dennis continued to move erratically. Figure 1 shows that the cyclone followed a zig-zag course northward for the rest of its life. Dennis became extratropical on the 7th and was absorbed into a larger low on the 9th. "

Entire report on the link below.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1999dennis.html

Erika Preliminary Report Up=It was a hurricane after all

Erika Preliminary Report Up=It was a hurricane after all

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