2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ianswfl]

00z gfs then tries to send a second epac crossover further south but gets sheared. Gfs ensembles aroubd 320 hours is getting some stronger members near the yucatan moving northeast as well. Looks like from a crossover. Seems too comical to me though. Usual gfs stuff

[WalterWhite]

The GEFS is indicating the possibility of another Cape Verde storm around October 11.

[Blown Away]

06 GFS has a TS moving through the NE Caribbean in the long range...

[DunedinDave]

Looks like the first cold front coming through this weekend in central Fla. I always said when that first front comes through, it’s the beginning of the end for hurricane season. Going to enjoy these cooler temperatures next week.

[IsabelaWeather]

[url=https://postimages.org/]
https://i.postimg.cc/28hkjWMG/45b4c359- ... fdb535.gif
06 GFS has a TS moving through the NE Caribbean in the long range...

I'm rooting for this exact outcome, desperately need the rain here.

[ThunderForce]

The major hurricane member that GEFS shows going into southwest FL first appears at like Forecast Hour 222 (12z Thursday, October 12th) and doesn't become sub-990 mbs until 264 (06z Saturday, October 14th). The landfall itself doesn't happen until 354 (00z Wednesday, October 18th). These are all pretty much in the "fantasy land" range, so the chances of this verifying exactly as shown this far out (e.g. formation area, path, strength, landfall location, etc.) are really low.

Definitely something to keep an eye on in any case.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the first cold front coming through this weekend in central Fla. I always said when that first front comes through, it’s the beginning of the end for hurricane season. Going to enjoy these cooler temperatures next week.

For the Conus maybe but the caribbean could be open into November.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1709205673899151546

[Ianswfl]

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1709205673899151546?s=20

Watching it too. Could be an unusual ene track too. Further south the warmer the water. The gfs ensembles seem to think on some of the members it will be favorable the further south it is i wonder if the sub tropical jet is cranking but it's moving with the shear which shears it less

[salescall]

https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1709205673899151546?s=20

Watching it too. Could be an unusual ene track too. Further south the warmer the water. The gfs ensembles seem to think on some of the members it will be favorable the further south it is i wonder if the sub tropical jet is cranking but it's moving with the shear which shears it less

I’ve got a trip planned in the Abacos 10/13 - 10/21. Really hoping these long range models don’t materialize. Can someone please provide the best links for me to keep an eye on it? Thanks in advance!

[N2FSU]

12z GFS


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[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1709230187781521875




The gfs/cmc/icon all show mdr activity picking up again around the 10th.

[N2FSU]

12z GFS fantasyland


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[N2FSU]

12z Canadian


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[WalterWhite]

The GFS, CMC, ICON, and NAVGEM global models; and the GEFS and GEPS ensembles all point to development in near Cape Verde in about 8-9 days.













The only model that has yet to support development is the ECMWF. The 00Z ECENS ensembles show the possibility of development in this area, however.

[Ianswfl]

Euro on board with the cross over. Both operational and ensembles!! Gfs cmc and euro on board. Anywhere from ms to south fl.

[tolakram]

Just a bit of shear.

[Steve]

Looks like the first cold front coming through this weekend in central Fla. I always said when that first front comes through, it’s the beginning of the end for hurricane season. Going to enjoy these cooler temperatures next week.

It’s often the green light though for storms to come up. 2005 had some early fronts as did 2004 and what followed was long periods of activity and US landfalls. Obviously we are in October not mid-August, so it’s not the same thing as in those years. But any time a front gets through and a ridge settles in behind it, you gotta look south.

[Ianswfl]

Looks like the first cold front coming through this weekend in central Fla. I always said when that first front comes through, it’s the beginning of the end for hurricane season. Going to enjoy these cooler temperatures next week.

It’s often the green light though for storms to come up. 2005 had some early fronts as did 2004 and what followed was long periods of activity and US landfalls. Obviously we are in October not mid-August, so it’s not the same thing as in those years. But any time a front gets through and a ridge settles in behind it, you gotta look south.

Yep. While Fl thru Oct 25th Tampa on South gets hits from the Gulf, they're usually not cat4 or cat5s. They seem to be a lot of cat3s and cat2 hits. The waters are still warm enough for major hurricanes but not the heavy hitters like Ian. Wilma is a good example of the typical intensity if you get a well develop hurricane from the Caribbean pulled north from a front in oct.

Of course you have storms like Michael but 2018 had some VERY warm temps in the central and northern Gulf for October.

[Ianswfl]