2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AJC3]

Any lowering of pressure near Florida beyond day 5 isn't tropical at all. If it were to occur, it would be along a stalled weak inverted surface trough, beneath a mid to upper level trough, in an area of strong baroclinic forcing (i.e. upper divergence). #ContextIsImportant here.

I see that there is some suggestion by the ensembles that there may be a sfc low located near FL or off the SE coast beneath a pretty strong NE US around mid next week. Is that what you’re referring to?

I'm referring to surface low development near Florida beginning early next week (SUN-MON). Based off the 26/00Z runs, this would start to occur either on the Gulf side (00Z GFS) or near the Bahamas (00Z ECM). The ECM and GFS have been pretty inconsistent in their solutions, both surface an aloft, over the past 24 hours.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
447 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

<snip>

Next Weekend...An amplifying mid level ridge over the central CONUS will cause surface high pressure to build/strengthen over the eastern half of the CONUS, producing freshening onshore flow across FL. Just how unsettled the wx will continue to be locally depends on the position of the H50 trough/low SE of the ridge.A solution closer to the ECM (closed low over central FL) portends continued high rain chances (mostly showers) through the weekend, while the GFS`s sheared out trough axis over SOFL would trend us drier for Sun. For now, the forecast keeps of likely POPs through the weekend, however this is pretty low confidence.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
446 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2023

<snip>

Saturday-Monday...Models show amplification of the NOAM pattern aloft into a positive-tilt omega block, featuring a western CONUS trough, central CONUS ridge and a trough extending from the GOMEX across FL and along/offshore the SE Seaboard. While the ECM/GFS switched solutions regarding the evolution of the trough composing the SE part of the block (ECM more progressive/GFS with a cutoff) both show the unsettled pattern continuing through this weekend, then possibly trending drier next week as onshore winds freshen between high pressure to the north and a possible surface low centered either near the Bahamas (ECM) or GOMEX (GFS).

[Jr0d]

There is a healthy wave in the Caribbean. Upper level wind look favorable.

No model support but the wave in the western Caribbean has that look. Definitely something to watch in my amateur opinion.

We have had stormy weather the past almost week in Key West with severe storms Sunday night and just now Tuesday morning. The storms this morning are loosely associated with that Caribbean area of disturbed weather, Key West airport recorded a gust of 53 mph and we likely saw higher winds in Stock Island where the brunt of the cell hit.

The GEPS(gfs) ensembles have a huge signal in this area around October 10th, that of course is fantasy land.

[LarryWx]

There is a healthy wave in the Caribbean. Upper level wind look favorable.

The GEPS(gfs) ensembles have a huge signal in this area around October 10th, that of course is fantasy land.

You mean GEPS (cmc), not GEPS (gfs), right?

[Ianswfl]

06z euro ensembles now showing a bit more signal of something weak forming in the western Caribbean. A couple weak ts members now

[Ianswfl]

12z ensembles a bit more bullish on the area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean and Eastern Gulf later this week. Still, only a weak tropical storm but it's not unreasonable with warm waters and all that energy to get a slop TS.

[Jr0d]

That Caribbean wave looks solid. It appears to be moving north slowly. Very surprised theres no lemon yet

[WalterWhite]

That Caribbean wave looks solid. It appears to be moving north slowly. Very surprised theres no lemon yet

There is no model support for the wave developing into a tropical cyclone yet.

[toad strangler]

That Caribbean wave looks solid. It appears to be moving north slowly. Very surprised theres no lemon yet

There is no model support for the wave developing into a tropical cyclone yet.

Model support is not mandatory criteria for area fruit (lemon orange cherry) designation. Is it? Nah can't be.

[floridasun]

That Caribbean wave looks solid. It appears to be moving north slowly. Very surprised theres no lemon yet

There is no model support for the wave developing into a tropical cyclone yet.

i think it upper low in Caribbean that why nhc not put circle yet

[Nimbus]

That Caribbean wave looks solid. It appears to be moving north slowly. Very surprised theres no lemon yet

There is no model support for the wave developing into a tropical cyclone yet.

Model support is not mandatory criteria for area fruit (lemon orange cherry) designation. Is it? Nah can't be.

Surface reflection of an upper low?

Pressures were lower at the surface yesterday but I see some convection flareup so worth checking.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[Ianswfl]

CMC showing a system forming end of the run, classic mid Oct location. Could this be our blockbuster of the season?

[Jr0d]

Both the GFS and now Canadian are hinting of a CAG development. We know historically this is a trouble some point of genesis. While the water off south Florida is not insanely hot, there still is plenty of latent heat to support a strong cat 4 perhaps more.

[Category5Kaiju]

jBoth the GFS and now Canadian are hinting of a CAG development. We know historically this is a trouble some point of genesis. While the water off south Florida is not insanely hot, there still is plenty of latent heat to support a strong cat 4 perhaps more.

That, and also the skin temperatures are still 29-30 C. That's quite warm.

[Ianswfl]

18z gfs ensembles picking up on some CAG stuff possibly as well. ARound the same time frame the Canadian Ensembles sending strong signals except developing further west.

GEFS


GEPS Ensembles

[Ianswfl]

CMC has the CAG storm once again, not pushed back. Seems to form a tad sooner too due to less land interaction. GFS still doesn't have it but the GFS ensembles show a CAG storm in the previous run.

[SFLcane]

Warm waters are fine in the caribbean but thankfully its been extremely hard to get anything from east past 75 west thankfully this season certainly dont see that changing. Other then the rare epac crossover this season was pretty uneventful for the Conus hopfully it stays that way.

[toad strangler]

Warm waters are fine in the caribbean but thankfully its been extremely hard to get anything from east past 75 west thankfully this season certainly dont see that changing. Other then the rare epac crossover this season was pretty uneventful for the Conus hopfully it stays that way.

For me, those maps are just way too far out to opine on. But just about 'tis the season for Western Caribbean action and it is a 384 hour thread so why not?
And I'm sure the FL home owners insurance industry agrees with your last sentence Adrian!

[fllawyer]

CMC showing a system forming end of the run, classic mid Oct location. Could this be our blockbuster of the season?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2023092612/gem_mslp_pcpn_atl_40.png

I very much appreciate when the long-distance models are posted here for discussion, which is the point of the topic. But is it really necessary to consistently speculate on what a signal 7, 10, or 14+ days out might be?

[Jr0d]

Warm waters are fine in the caribbean but thankfully its been extremely hard to get anything from east past 75 west thankfully this season certainly dont see that changing. Other then the rare epac crossover this season was pretty uneventful for the Conus hopfully it stays that way.

I am worried about a CAG storm. It seems like the pattern is setting up as we have had several pulses already causing stormy weather here in the Keys. The CMC operational is showing a storm form in about a week in the NW Caribbean and the GFS ensembles are also showing a signal.

I would be willing to bet we will get a hurricane from this region in October. Hopefully shear will be an inhibiting factor as the water temps could easily support a high end major hurricane.

[Ivanhater]

I'm only go to say this once before vacations are handed out.

I just had to move a bunch of off topic chatter.

Stay on topic, meaning Global model runs. Members come here for a quick update on what the models are showing and don't have time to filter though the off topic chatter.

KEEP ON TOPIC!

Back to your regularly scheduled posting