2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ThunderForce]

Most recent CMC run seems to suggest two more storms forming (including the 10/40 AOI (91L) and another one right off the Eastern Seaboard) in the coming week or so.

Quite a few models seem to be suggesting something trying to form somewhere near the Eastern Seaboard around Friday/Saturday. 06z GFS, 00z Euro and 00z CMC all seem to have some sort of low-pressure trying to deepen in that area around that timeframe.

[psyclone]

Global tropics hazards yanked the development area in the gulf and caribbean for early October in their latest iteration. A wet pattern is expected around Florida over the next week...should that happen it will really cool the water temps which are already tilting downward.

[emeraldislenc]

What are the current water temps in south Florida and the keys? The weather channel says yestetday they errr in the low 80's off the coast of NC.

[Hurricane2022]

What are the current water temps in south Florida and the keys? The weather channel says yestetday they errr in the low 80's off the coast of NC.

Very warm at around 30 - 32°C.

[psyclone]

What are the current water temps in south Florida and the keys? The weather channel says yestetday they errr in the low 80's off the coast of NC.

Mid to upper 80's...still very warm.

[Ianswfl]

12z ensembles not backing down for late next week. Probably a sheared system

[emeraldislenc]

What are your indications of a sheared system?

[Ianswfl]

What are your indications of a sheared system?

Movement and they don't bomb out before landfall. Looks like slop system track

[CourierPR]

What are your indications of a sheared system?

Movement and they don't bomb out before landfall. Looks like slop system track

What is a slop system track?

[LarryWx]

Most recent CMC run seems to suggest two more storms forming (including the 10/40 AOI (91L) and another one right off the Eastern Seaboard) in the coming week or so.

Quite a few models seem to be suggesting something trying to form somewhere near the Eastern Seaboard around Friday/Saturday. 06z GFS, 00z Euro and 00z CMC all seem to have some sort of low-pressure trying to deepen in that area around that timeframe.

This is related to the ridge over troubled waters idea of low pressure forming to the S of NE US/SE Canada high pressure due to lower level convergence leading to rising air and thus LP forming. If over warm enough waters like in this case, it can lead to TCG.
We can add the 12Z UKMET to the 12Z runs doing this just offshore the SE US on Thu (9/29) followed by very slow E movement for 3 days due to the blocking high sort of keeping it stuck:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 32.2N 78.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2023 108 32.5N 77.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 29.09.2023 120 33.3N 76.6W 1010 29
0000UTC 30.09.2023 132 34.8N 75.0W 1010 32
1200UTC 30.09.2023 144 34.4N 74.1W 1009 36
0000UTC 01.10.2023 156 33.4N 73.4W 1007 34
1200UTC 01.10.2023 168 33.1N 72.4W 1005 34

[Ianswfl]

What are your indications of a sheared system?

Movement and they don't bomb out before landfall. Looks like slop system track

What is a slop system track?

Ne into Florida with most of the worst weather on the eastern side.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS Happy Hour did not disappoint!

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS Happy Hour did not disappoint!

Gfs needed to jump onboard the blowout bandwagon today and drop a few more storms into the Atlantic like Dolphin touchdowns this afternoon.


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[toad strangler]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/NFwzWSZv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-384.gif [/url]
18z GFS Happy Hour did not disappoint!

Meh, that’s so far out it’s double fantasy range lol.

[Blown Away]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/NFwzWSZv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-384.gif [/url]
18z GFS Happy Hour did not disappoint!

Gfs needed to jump onboard the blowout bandwagon today and drop a few more storms into the Atlantic like Dolphin touchdowns this afternoon.

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At least the Dolphins can make it past 70 this hurricane season!!!

[Category5Kaiju]

If the most GFS run verified, then the auxiliary list might actually become necessary

[SFLcane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/NFwzWSZv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-384.gif [/url]
18z GFS Happy Hour did not disappoint!

Meh, that’s so far out it’s double fantasy range lol.

[ThunderForce]

The storm that pops in on the 18z GFS at about 06z Saturday October 7th near the Yucatan seems to come from some sort of EPAC vorticity moving through Costa Rica and Nicaragua, before moving into the lower Caribbean Sea. At least, that's what it looks like going off of the 500mb Geopotential Height, Cyclonic Vorticity and Wind.

[Ianswfl]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/NFwzWSZv/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-384.gif [/url]
18z GFS Happy Hour did not disappoint!

Meh, that’s so far out it’s double fantasy range lol.

https://i.postimg.cc/vHzLDQt5/IMG-7645.gif

For the Gulf and Carribean do you think October and Nov will be the August and Sept for the open atlantic hurricane wise? I mean going all bonkers. GFS operation has two possible storms for FL in 10 days. weaker slop tropical storm and a 969mb hurricane hitting Marco Island.

[Ianswfl]

GFS so far a bit stronger this run and a tad further west with the Caribbean system next weekend. Has a weak tropical storm now versus TD.