NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132023
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Deep convection has been increasing over the past several hours, but
the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the northwest quadrant
of Kenneth due to moderate easterly vertical wind shear. An ASCAT-C
pass caught the western half of the circulation and showed maximum
winds in the 30-35 kt range, but it is possible that stronger winds
exists east of the center. Therefore, the initial intensity is held
at 40 kt, which is a near the average of the latest satellite
intensity estimates that range from 30 to 45 kt.
Kenneth could strengthen a little during the next day or so as the
shear decreases. However, the opportunity for strengthening seems
to end on Thursday when the storm moves into a region of strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear. These hostile winds aloft
combined with dry air entrainment and progressively cooler SSTs
should cause Kenneth to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low in
a few days and dissipate shortly thereafter. The NHC intensity
forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, but still lies at
the high end of the guidance.
The storm is moving westward at 9 kt. A turn to the west-northwest
is expected later today as Kenneth nears the southwestern periphery
of a subtropical ridge. On Thursday, a turn to the northwest is
forecast as Kenneth moves in the flow between the ridge and a mid-
to upper-level trough to its northwest. The models have trended
left this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that
direction.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 14.8N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 15.4N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 16.0N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 16.8N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 18.0N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 19.4N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 20.3N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi