12Z surface analysis indicates that the low has moved to 42 N 13 W and has deepened to 998 mb. The low is further detaching itself from the frontal boundary.
As of now, my best track estimate of this system would be:
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast
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- WalterWhite
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- Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:53 pm
- WalterWhite
- Category 1
- Posts: 311
- Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:53 pm
Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast
The low has moved to 42 N 12 W and has deepened to 995 mb.
As of now, my best track estimate of this system would be:
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
Based on new analysis, the 12Z maximum wind speed estimate has been increased to 40 kt. The 18Z maximum wind speed estimate is still 35 kt, however.
As of now, my best track estimate of this system would be:
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
Based on new analysis, the 12Z maximum wind speed estimate has been increased to 40 kt. The 18Z maximum wind speed estimate is still 35 kt, however.
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- WalterWhite
- Category 1
- Posts: 311
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast
The GFS indicates that the low will completely detach from its frontal boundary 12 hours from now, at which point the low might be classifiable as a subtropical cyclone.
The GFS has this subtropical cyclone surviving until the 36th hour of the run, where the mountains of Iberia rip apart the cyclone into a remnant low.
The GFS has this subtropical cyclone surviving until the 36th hour of the run, where the mountains of Iberia rip apart the cyclone into a remnant low.
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- WalterWhite
- Category 1
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast
As of now, my best track estimate of this system would be:
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
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- WalterWhite
- Category 1
- Posts: 311
- Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:53 pm
Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast
43 N 11 W
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 12Z: 43 N 11 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 12Z: 43 N 11 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
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- WalterWhite
- Category 1
- Posts: 311
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Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 12Z: 43 N 11 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/17 18Z: 44 N 10 W 1001 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
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- WalterWhite
- Category 1
- Posts: 311
- Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:53 pm
Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast
It appears as if the low has passed its chance for subtropical development.
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- WalterWhite
- Category 1
- Posts: 311
- Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2023 5:53 pm
Re: Non-tropical low off the Iberian coast
I believe an update to the best track is warranted. Based on the fact that the center of low pressure was not on any frontal boundaries from 2023/09/16 18Z onwards and the fact that the system had a warm core and was symmetric, the best track has the low updated from a non-tropical low to a subtropical low during this timeframe.
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 12Z: 43 N 11 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 18Z: 44 N 10 W 1001 mb 030 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/13 12Z: 46 N 27 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/13 18Z: 46 N 26 W 1016 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 00Z: 47 N 24 W 1014 mb 025 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 06Z: 47 N 23 W 1013 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 12Z: 46 N 21 W 1014 mb 030 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/14 18Z: 46 N 19 W 1010 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 00Z: 45 N 17 W 1009 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 06Z: 45 N 15 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 12Z: 44 N 14 W 1006 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/15 18Z: 44 N 13 W 1004 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 00Z: 43 N 12 W 1002 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 06Z: 42 N 12 W 0999 mb 035 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 12Z: 42 N 13 W 0998 mb 040 kt: Non-tropical low
2023/09/16 18Z: 42 N 12 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 00Z: 42 N 12 W 0996 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 06Z: 42 N 11 W 0995 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 12Z: 43 N 11 W 0998 mb 035 kt: Subtropical low
2023/09/17 18Z: 44 N 10 W 1001 mb 030 kt: Subtropical low
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