ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KirbyDude25]

No concentric eyewalls reported in latest VDM.

F. CLOSED
G. E03/48/32

how wide are they reporting the eye?

Elliptical, with a 48-mile major axis and a 32-mile minor axis (in nautical miles, not statute miles). In other words, pretty big, but somewhat smaller than before, when the outer eyewall was 60+ nautical miles wide.

[wxman57]

HAFS A & B are trending farther east, taking Lee into New Brunswick at a faster pace. Let's see if the EC speeds it up at 12Z and catches the trof. It'll be transitioning to ET by the time it passes east of Cape Cod Saturday morning. Larger wind field, no core of intense winds. Big issue for southern New England will be the 30-40 mph wind. Trees have leaves on them this time or year, unlike when nor'easters produce this kind of wind. Also, the ground is saturated from recent rains, making trees more apt to fall.

P.S.
Yes, EC has a faster movement and takes the center inland into New Brunswick. However, by then, there won't be anything near the center to make landfall.

[Sciencerocks]

[hohnywx]

HAFS A & B are trending farther east, taking Lee into New Brunswick at a faster pace. Let's see if the EC speeds it up at 12Z and catches the trof. It'll be transitioning to ET by the time it passes east of Cape Cod Saturday morning. Larger wind field, no core of intense winds. Big issue for southern New England will be the 30-40 mph wind. Trees have leaves on them this time or year, unlike when nor'easters produce this kind of wind. Also, the ground is saturated from recent rains, making trees more apt to fall.

P.S.
Yes, EC has a faster movement and takes the center inland into New Brunswick. However, by then, there won't be anything near the center to make landfall.

Sorry, HAFS-B actually trended a full degree westward

[Iceresistance]

Extrapolated pressure has fallen to 944.9 mb per AF306 Recon

[galaxy401]

Lee is pulling a Teddy here with lowering Pressures but no wind speed increase probably due to its large size.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/-qvkUCuGUuk[/youtube]

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Just had a 4 mb drop, latest VDM is at 946 mb.

[sponger]

I just hope it clears Mass before the NFL game. Hate to see the Dolphins unable to exploit the Patriots with their insanely fast track team.

[ThunderForce]

Really hoping this at least weakens a good bit before landfall so it doesn't cause much damage. Best case scenario would be for Lee to defy the model guidance and quickly turn east out to sea before being able to get near land.

[sponger]

Really hoping this at least weakens a good bit before landfall so it doesn't cause much damage. Best case scenario would be for Lee to defy the model guidance and quickly turn east out to sea before being able to get near land.

Storm surge will be biblical regardless.

[PavelGaborik10]

Really hoping this at least weakens a good bit before landfall so it doesn't cause much damage. Best case scenario would be for Lee to defy the model guidance and quickly turn east out to sea before being able to get near land.

Pretty much every model has this weakening into an ET mess prior to any direct impacts.

Things can still change, but that's where we stand now.

[wxman57]

HAFS A & B are trending farther east, taking Lee into New Brunswick at a faster pace. Let's see if the EC speeds it up at 12Z and catches the trof. It'll be transitioning to ET by the time it passes east of Cape Cod Saturday morning. Larger wind field, no core of intense winds. Big issue for southern New England will be the 30-40 mph wind. Trees have leaves on them this time or year, unlike when nor'easters produce this kind of wind. Also, the ground is saturated from recent rains, making trees more apt to fall.

P.S.
Yes, EC has a faster movement and takes the center inland into New Brunswick. However, by then, there won't be anything near the center to make landfall.

Sorry, HAFS-B actually trended a full degree westward

https://imgur.com/BWiUmJx

Farther north, it's a half degree east of the 6z run for 06z Sun. It's also a degree farther north at that time. The faster it tracks, the farther east it will go.

[OuterBanker]

Most of us here have been tracking Lee for 20 days now.
I'll be the first to admit that I am suffering from hurricane fatigue.

I just want the Lee story to be over.

The inherent problem with long trackers.

[hohnywx]

HAFS A & B are trending farther east, taking Lee into New Brunswick at a faster pace. Let's see if the EC speeds it up at 12Z and catches the trof. It'll be transitioning to ET by the time it passes east of Cape Cod Saturday morning. Larger wind field, no core of intense winds. Big issue for southern New England will be the 30-40 mph wind. Trees have leaves on them this time or year, unlike when nor'easters produce this kind of wind. Also, the ground is saturated from recent rains, making trees more apt to fall.

P.S.
Yes, EC has a faster movement and takes the center inland into New Brunswick. However, by then, there won't be anything near the center to make landfall.

Sorry, HAFS-B actually trended a full degree westward

https://imgur.com/BWiUmJx

Farther north, it's a half degree east of the 6z run for 06z Sun. It's also a degree farther north at that time. The faster it tracks, the farther east it will go.

OK, but it is farther west where it will actually impact Cape Cod and New England.

[JBCycloneStan]

Most of us here have been tracking Lee for 20 days now.
I'll be the first to admit that I am suffering from hurricane fatigue.

I just want the Lee story to be over.

The inherent problem with long trackers.

It's only been 10 days

[Iceresistance]

Most of us here have been tracking Lee for 20 days now.
I'll be the first to admit that I am suffering from hurricane fatigue.

I just want the Lee story to be over.

The inherent problem with long trackers.

20? It has been around since the 2nd!

[abajan]

Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2023

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS LEE GROWING IN SIZE...
...HAZARDOUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BEACHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALL WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 66.4W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES
...
Lee is very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sorry, HAFS-B actually trended a full degree westward

https://imgur.com/BWiUmJx

Farther north, it's a half degree east of the 6z run for 06z Sun. It's also a degree farther north at that time. The faster it tracks, the farther east it will go.

The HAFS-A does that, but the HAFS-B did shift west.

HAFS-A shifted east some in this image:
https://i.imgur.com/l96eUXO.jpg
From 6Z to 12Z.

But the HAFS-B did shift west from 6Z to 12Z:
https://i.imgur.com/1nh1zXf.jpg