ATL: LEE - Models

[LarryWx]

Just through 240, the 12Z EPS appears to be fairly similar to the 0Z. It has one H hit the ME/NB border on 9/15, one hit S Nova Scotia, several more aiming for the NE/SE Canada, and a few much further S including one H and 2 TS in the Bahamas. I'll check the entire run later when it comes out.

[BobHarlem]

General shift right, except those 2/3 dipping into the Bahamas. If a SW dip did occur north of Hispaniola this forum would probably lose it.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yeah...

Cut-off low to the west moving SE, ridge building over... this is not a "fish" scenario.

[eastcoastFL]

Seems like this is further South but looks like it may find a way north.

Really? I'm just eyeballing it, but on both IR and visible sat, it sure looks like it's moving quite a bit north over the last 12 hours or so. Looks like the overall motion is more NW than anything now. Forecast points have it at 14.8N at 2pm ET today and it looks like it's about where it should be, approaching 15N.

Looks to be right on track today

[Spacecoast]

General shift right, except those 2/3 dipping into the Bahamas. If a SW dip did occur north of Hispaniola this forum would probably lose it.

https://i.imgur.com/06BvmUV.png

https://i.imgur.com/79o4Kra.png

2-3 members is less than 4-6%. Highlighting the unlikely possibility of Lee turning into a weak(er) system.
Good thing the other 48-49 members disagree.
For ensembles, the mean is the most important, and has been consistently northwards between 65W-70W for several days.

[Meteorcane]

GFS continues to trend slightly slower... may allow it to start feeling the weakness further east... a good trend for the Turks and Caicos/Eastern Bahamas, also definitely not out of the woods yet given it is still a day 5-7 forecast. Another interesting thing is that Margot continues to trend stronger on the GFS, not sure what effect that will have on the ridge to its north in the extended.

[Iceresistance]

GFS continues to trend slightly slower... may allow it to start feeling the weakness further east... a good trend for the Turks and Caicos/Eastern Bahamas, also definitely not out of the woods yet given it is still a day 5-7 forecast. Another interesting thing is that Margot continues to trend stronger on the GFS, not sure what effect that will have on the ridge to its north in the extended.

It's also trending further south

[Cat5James]

GFS continues to trend slightly slower... may allow it to start feeling the weakness further east... a good trend for the Turks and Caicos/Eastern Bahamas, also definitely not out of the woods yet given it is still a day 5-7 forecast. Another interesting thing is that Margot continues to trend stronger on the GFS, not sure what effect that will have on the ridge to its north in the extended.

Doesn’t look to be feeling the weakness further east…

[Meteorcane]

Margot clearly impinging on North Atlantic ridging in this run... definitely the most intense the GFS has progged it so far. Still not sure if the sheared-out northern branch shortwave trough will be enough to support a full recurve though even with the weakened ridge.

[ThunderForce]

18z GFS seems to have Lee begin feeling the trough's tug later as a result of being a bit further south, but then ends up getting yanked eastward by future Margot, with Lee absorbing Margot afterward while racing to the east below Atlantic Canada.

[Meteorcane]

Well the happy hour GFS used to be infamous for trying to create hypothetical TC tracks that would set records for destruction... today's happy hour provided us with probably the best case scenario for Lee's lifetime (i.e a total fish). Unfortunately so many wildcards once we get beyond the day 5-7 range (i.e. when Lee begins to feel the weakness on the western flank of the subtropical high). No confidence in future Margot's evolution at the moment.

[ColdMiser123]

GFS is on the east side of its ensemble spread.

[PavelGaborik10]

18z would be a great solution. Basically moves so slowly that it loses all of its strength S of Canada, then gets tugged OTS anyways as the cherry on top.

10-11 days out though, for what feels like the third day in a row.

[Meteorcane]

GFS is on the east side of its ensemble spread.

Yeah a little too close for comfort for the Turks and Caicos/Eastern Bahamas, before the northward movement begins.

That is actually a significant shift south/west between the "weight" of the GEFS on the 18Z vs 12Z, much more noticeable difference than with the deterministic GFS runs

[aspen]

18z HAFS-B is poorly initialized and under-estimates Lee’s structure and intensity in the short-term. The HAFS-A initializes Lee’s current structure better and has it begin RI on Thursday night, while the B waits until a full day later.

[ThunderForce]

What exactly is causing this westward shift in the model? Lee being a bit more southward I can understand due to the ridging possibly being stronger between runs, but the westward movement has me stumped.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Pretty huge shift there lol

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291

[WalterWhite]

Pretty huge shift there lol

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291

Oh no...

[jlauderdal]

Pretty huge shift there lol

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1699562532397363291

There is a reason its called the gfs happy hour, give it a cycle or two and reality will return.

[eastcoastFL]

What exactly is causing this westward shift in the model? Lee being a bit more southward I can understand due to the ridging possibly being stronger between runs, but the westward movement has me stumped.

I’m thinking a stronger ridge may stretch further south and west