ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

Certainly an interesting structure with that huge curved band. I'm thinking we're still a day or so away from really seeing it take off but once that northeasterly shear lightens up and it can fully develop a core it'll go ballistic

Yeah the hurricane models (e.g. HAFS) show this the curved band persisting for about 18-24 hours, then followed by a transition to a more symmetric cyclone thereafter (not surprisingly coincident with the lessening of shear) which lets more substantial deepening commence shortly after.

[bob rulz]

To respond to that question about if a storm name could be retired for simply being powerful even if it doesn't do much damage, don't countries have to request to the WMO that a name be retired?

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 55 knots.

Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 44.6W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[Jelmergraaff]

NHC has Lee at winds of 150 mph in already 72 hours.

INIT 06/0900Z 13.7N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.3N 46.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 15.1N 48.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 16.0N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.0N 53.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 18.1N 56.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 19.2N 58.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 21.1N 62.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 22.7N 65.5W 130 KT 150 MPH

[cycloneye]

The first visible image of the day shows an eye feature showing up.

[abajan]

To respond to that question about if a storm name could be retired for simply being powerful even if it doesn't do much damage, don't countries have to request to the WMO that a name be retired?

That's correct. And I still can't figure why Venezuela didn't request that the name Bret be retired after the catastrophic flooding it caused there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Bret_(1993)

[Nimbus]

Certainly an interesting structure with that huge curved band. I'm thinking we're still a day or so away from really seeing it take off but once that northeasterly shear lightens up and it can fully develop a core it'll go ballistic

Yeah the hurricane models (e.g. HAFS) show this the curved band persisting for about 18-24 hours, then followed by a transition to a more symmetric cyclone thereafter (not surprisingly coincident with the lessening of shear) which lets more substantial deepening commence shortly after.

Looks a little dry this morning no signs of RI.
Latitude was about ~13.8 as it crossed the -45 so extrapolated track still (looks) uncomfortably close to the islands.
Should get that central convective burst and stop feeding off the ITZ soon.
GFS still threatening New England in the long range forecast after the holding pattern off the coast.

[eastcoastFL]

[InfernoFlameCat]

If they put it at 70 at the next advisory then it RI’d. We will see.

[cycloneye]

Eyewall forming.

[kevin]

A new burst of convection which is solidifying the eyewalls. Also potentially the beginning of some towers in the eyewall in the last frame. Could start RI very soon.

[kevin]

The curved band to the north is quickly dissipating, you can already see on VIS how much it has weakened over the last hour. Should no longer inhibit Lee from now on imo.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the information about when there were two major hurricanes at the same time in North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific? That will happen with Lee and Jova.

[msbee]

Certainly an interesting structure with that huge curved band. I'm thinking we're still a day or so away from really seeing it take off but once that northeasterly shear lightens up and it can fully develop a core it'll go ballistic

Yeah the hurricane models (e.g. HAFS) show this the curved band persisting for about 18-24 hours, then followed by a transition to a more symmetric cyclone thereafter (not surprisingly coincident with the lessening of shear) which lets more substantial deepening commence shortly after.

Looks a little dry this morning no signs of RI.
Latitude was about ~13.8 as it crossed the -45 so extrapolated track still (looks) uncomfortably close to the islands.
Should get that central convective burst and stop feeding off the ITZ soon.
GFS still threatening New England in the long range forecast after the holding pattern off the coast.

Uncomfortably close is right

[eastcoastFL]

Looking pretty good this morning

[cycloneye]

Up to 60kt.

AL, 13, 2023090612, , BEST, 0, 139N, 451W, 60, 994, TS

[Michele B]

Honestly the only thing I can see that could hold this back is if it develops a structure prone to EWRC's but I think the chances of that happening are low. I don't really see any other reason why this won't at the very least reach 130kts+ and likely higher than that.

I could end up being very wrong but I'm going with 150kts/912mb peak for Lee. Feels weird saying that for an Atlantic storm this far out but the potential is certainly there

What would create a "structure prone to EWRC's..."? I seem to remember a monster storm a few years back (was it Irma?) that went through quite a few EWRC's, and still ended up being a monster and with each cycle, gave us more threats and fear.

[kevin]

Up to 60kt.

AL, 13, 2023090612, , BEST, 0, 139N, 451W, 60, 994, TS

Yesterday it was 30 kt at 15z so that's a 30 kt increase in 21 hours. Does that still count as RI since the 30 kt value was when it was still a TD instead of a TS? If so than Lee already meets the RI criteria.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lee can be a lady's name, or a man's name.
Not much doubt now which it is.

https://i.imgur.com/7wGV3ii.jpg

If it was a lady's name it would be Leigh

Not necessarily. Catwoman (in the original TV Batman series) was played by Lee Meriwether...

It's not Cat Woman to me unless it's Julie Newmar (or Eartha Kitt)...but I get your point

[Iceresistance]

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgyCJ.gif