ATL: LEE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Hard to tell from IR, but I dont really see much, if any, northward movement.

https://imgur.com/a/ZiMlhec

NHC says WNW @ 290* but I am not so sure.

I question the 290* heading too.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1699219140224114781

[cycloneye]

Dvorak SAB has 3.5 and is almost a hurricane.

TXNT22 KNES 060020
TCSNTL

A. 13L (LEE)

B. 06/0000Z

C. 13.0N

D. 42.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...9/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 3.0 DUE
TO A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 3.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BROWN

[InfernoFlameCat]

Lee does sound formidable. It will be a very fun storm to track. Hopefully it looks beautiful. But, on the other hand, very few models show a harmless recurve. This storm will claim lives, even if it goes to sea. Riptides are a real danger that will be especially potent with this storm should it get large enough.

[cycloneye]

I thought they would go to 60kts following dvorak.

AL, 13, 2023090600, , BEST, 0, 133N, 424W, 45, 1003, TS

[aspen]

I thought they would go to 60kts following dvorak.

AL, 13, 2023090600, , BEST, 0, 133N, 424W, 45, 1003, TS

They may go 5kt higher in the advisory like they did at 5. I doubt this is already a borderline hurricane.

[CryHavoc]

Hard to tell from IR, but I dont really see much, if any, northward movement.

https://imgur.com/a/ZiMlhec

NHC says WNW @ 290* but I am not so sure.

When I click that link it says "This post may contain erotic or adult imagery. By continuing, you acknowledge that you are 18+ years of age."

Not sure if imgur just puts that disclaimer on everything now, or if they've read enough of Josh Morgerman's descriptions of tropical cyclones.

Weirdest thing, I ran into that on FB today with an image of Jupiter.

These AI algorithms that are designed to detect that stuff are atrocious.

(Sorry for OT)

[Hurrilurker]

https://i.postimg.cc/g02Xr9Zn/goes16-ir-13-L-202309052145.gif

Looks like dry air infiltrating toward the core from the NE side?

[canebeard]

Lee can be a lady's name, or a man's name.
Not much doubt now which it is.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lee can be a lady's name, or a man's name.
Not much doubt now which it is.

https://i.imgur.com/7wGV3ii.jpg

If it was a lady's name it would be Leigh

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1699228335669174677

[IsabelaWeather]

Why do people think that band is an issue? Looks like a large inflow convergence band to me.

Does the inflow band need to be on the SE side of the storm to help it? Or can it be the mirror opposite as well?

[Emmett_Brown]

Why do people think that band is an issue? Looks like a large inflow convergence band to me.

Does the inflow band need to be on the SE side of the storm to help it? Or can it be the mirror opposite as well?

Not sure, but sometimes when large lobes of convection form outside the area of the formative core, it is because of moist air colliding with dry air. So it may mean that dry air could be entrained into the core at some point as it organizes, but that's just a guess. However, I have heard just as many comments that this "shrimp" like appearance portends rapid organization.

[Meteorcane]

Why do people think that band is an issue? Looks like a large inflow convergence band to me.

Does the inflow band need to be on the SE side of the storm to help it? Or can it be the mirror opposite as well?

Not sure, but sometimes when large lobes of convection form outside the area of the formative core, it is because of moist air colliding with dry air. So it may mean that dry air could be entrained into the core at some point as it organizes, but that's just a guess. However, I have heard just as many comments that this "shrimp" like appearance portends rapid organization.

Yeah, definitely in drier mid-lvl environments, peripheral convection can generate stable outflows (which propagate inwards toward the TC center) which inhibit the ability of convection to form near the core. In more moist environments though, peripheral convection can actually help moisten and pre-condition the environment surrounding the TC and actually enhance the development of near core convection.

Outside of the moisture component, strong outer bands can sometimes inhibit the overall system upper-lvl outflow (thus inhibiting the deepening of the low-lvl vortex). That being said, any issues Lee has with ventilation will likely be solved in the next day or two as the upper-lvl pattern becomes very conducive for it, with at least 3 clear outflow channels devleoping.

[Ianswfl]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1699228335669174677

18z euro and the 18z euro ensembles shifted south yet again. Watch the NHC cone shift south naturally and people around here will start freaking out buying supplies just because the cone is pointed towards FL even though it's not even near it yet.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1699238459590967305

[mantis83]

https://twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1699238459590967305

could be a best case scenario if that happened

[CryHavoc]

 https://twitter.com/ConvChronicles/status/1699230959973831155

[Sciencerocks]

[Craters]

Lee can be a lady's name, or a man's name.
Not much doubt now which it is.

https://i.imgur.com/7wGV3ii.jpg

If it was a lady's name it would be Leigh

Not necessarily. Catwoman (in the original TV Batman series) was played by Lee Meriwether...